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  1. #9571
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Baa Baa The thrust of your post is to suggest risk is everywhere and anything can happen and you allude to the fact that HBL is a two bit finance company dressed up as a bank.
    I agree with the first assertion which is why I take an active approach to risk mitigation and am prepared to sit out (permanently or for years) from holding a stock in times of high risk, (sat out the dairy crisis for over 2 years on this stock for example).

    I disagree strongly with the two bit finance company comment. Their capital ratio to the best of my knowledge is superior to all the Australian banks and I think you'll find that those grannies and orphans who continue to predominantly invest in term deposits are taking FAR more risk than they realise with the RBNZ's powers under the open banking resolution. They could easily get a haircut of 30-40% or even more in the event of a major exogenous shock to the banking system.

    You infer that the Australian banks would be much stronger in a tremendous shock situation. I suggest you consider the state of the Australian and New Zealand housing markets and mining companies in Australia and look at the capital ratio of those banks. Just as much risk there as in any other bank in my opinion and on a skinnier capital base.

    As Percy quite correctly alluded too yesterday, the N.Z. imputation system and no meaningful imputation credits on Australian banks makes HBL a compelling investment in this sector for Kiwi's as does its superior earnings growth rate.

    P.S. Some posters post in real time what they're doing some of the time, for example I posted the other day I was BBB (Beagle busy buying) HBL in real time while I was doing it.
    Last edited by Beagle; 01-08-2017 at 07:58 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #9572
    percy
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    A year or two ago I pointed out Australian banks faced the following issues which Heartland Bank did not.
    Potential wholesale funding.
    Slow down in mining.
    Slow down in manufacturing particulary the motor assembly sector.
    Slow down in retail,with many small towns seeing store closures.
    Over exposure to housing market,both in Australia and NZ.
    Large exposure to NZ dairying.
    Issues closing unprofitable branches.
    Need for more capital that would slow down eps growth.
    I pointed out Heartland Bank faced none of these issues.
    I therefore would think the Australian banks may be best left to Australian investors.

  3. #9573
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I therefore would think the Australian banks may be best left to Australian investors.
    agree and note Australian investors are able to take advantage of Australian franking credits while generally Kiwi's cannot.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #9574
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    agree and note Australian investors are able to take advantage of Australian franking credits while generally Kiwi's cannot.
    And that really shows us the Australian attitude to New Zealanders.

  5. #9575
    IMO
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    Yes John key accepting his award from Aus is an insult to us all.

  6. #9576
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    And that really shows us the Australian attitude to New Zealanders.
    Australia offers NZers a special category visa. An easy entry option that it gives to no other country. Nobody forces Kiwis to go to Oz on those terms.

    When unemployment is is high in NZ, I wonder how many governments have been pleased to have the backdoor to Oz? Why shouldn't the NZ govt contribute to social welfare needs of Special category visa Kiwis in Oz?
    Last edited by Bjauck; 01-08-2017 at 10:20 AM.

  7. #9577
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Australia offers NZers a special category visa. An easy entry option that it gives to no other country. Nobody forces Kiwis to go to Oz on those terms.
    Yet NZ offers Australians better terms.
    In fact we welcome them.
    Fairer terms with imputation credits and fairer terms on welfare,including retirement super.
    We also accept Australian professional qualifications.
    Only time we screw them is on the Rugby field.
    Last edited by percy; 01-08-2017 at 10:27 AM.

  8. #9578
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Yet NZ offers Australians better terms.
    In fact we welcome them.
    Fairer terms with imputation credits and fairer terms on welfare,including retirement super.
    Only time we screw them is on the Rugby field.
    Agree...many of their policies are now iniquitous and the spirit of so called closer economic relations is adhered too in a most disingenuous manner in many respects.
    Wish the N.Z. pollies would grow a spine and do something about it but in the meantime I am doing what I can and shifting most of my banking business to the TRUE Bank of New Zealand, Heartland.
    Last edited by Beagle; 01-08-2017 at 10:29 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #9579
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Yet NZ offers Australians better terms.
    In fact we welcome them.
    Fairer terms with imputation credits and fairer terms on welfare,including retirement super.
    Only time we screw them is on the Rugby field.
    I didn't say Oz treated Kiwis as well as we treat Aussies!

    Nz needs Australian commercial investment more than vice-versa. (Kiwis put so much of their money into housing!)

    Many more Kiwis go to Australia than vice-versa (Although recently it has been more equal) and for kiwi politicians Oz can act as a valve when policies Fail! .

  10. #9580
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    N.Z. pollies would grow a spine and do something about it but in the meantime I am doing what I can and shifting most of my banking business to the TRUE Bank of New Zealand, Heartland.
    There are so many things too that the pollies should do for the Kiwis who have stayed in NZ!
    I have now moved half of my business to HBL too. The new website is a nightmare though, although I find the phonebanking staff helpful.

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