HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

**Arbitrage** · 13-02-2013, 12:57 PM

Here is hoping that the good results from CBA today will reflect in the NZ banking scene. HNZ results are on 25th February I think.

**Under Surveillance** · 13-02-2013, 02:38 PM

Originally Posted by percy

Yes,he runs is it splendidly.Very approachable,returns phone calls,widely experienced,and speaks clearly and openily.
Read his background and you will appriciate his capablities.

I trust you are right, Percy, but isn't he still on the RAK board? What does that say for his capabilities/judgement? It could be argued thatat RAK he is trying valiantly on behalf of the general shareholders against the tyranny of the Robinsons. However he would been kinder to the general punters had he resigned, say, half a dozen profit downgrades ago.

**percy** · 13-02-2013, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Am pleased to report I am now a Heartland shareholder, after some significant due diligence over the last month.

You may recall that I decided to invest in US insurance company AIG instead of Heartland a few weeks back.

After some serious thinking and further investigation, I found some more investable funds to apply to HNZ.

I look forward to the ride!

Welcome aboard.

**Master98** · 13-02-2013, 04:09 PM

Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Am pleased to report I am now a Heartland shareholder, after some significant due diligence over the last month.

You may recall that I decided to invest in US insurance company AIG instead of Heartland a few weeks back.

After some serious thinking and further investigation, I found some more investable funds to apply to HNZ.

I look forward to the ride!

Welcome on board STC, i am more confident on my holding now

**percy** · 13-02-2013, 04:13 PM

Originally Posted by Under Surveillance

I trust you are right, Percy, but isn't he still on the RAK board? What does that say for his capabilities/judgement? It could be argued thatat RAK he is trying valiantly on behalf of the general shareholders against the tyranny of the Robinsons. However he would been kinder to the general punters had he resigned, say, half a dozen profit downgrades ago.

Hopefully with HNZ going so well,he will give up his Rakon directorship.Must admit if I was a Rakon shareholder I would be sorry to see him leave.A very capable straight shooter.

**robbo24** · 13-02-2013, 04:23 PM

71 cents... The market is reacting to STC.?

**Master98** · 13-02-2013, 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Ok, so here's why I like Heartland. I am VERY confident that they will average 15% earnings growth over the next five years. They will probably meet earnings expectations for this year, and I believe will exceed expectations in 2014.

With 4cps in earnings, and using Sparky's back-of-the-envelope valuation method, then 2 x growth x earnings gives me $1.20.

Using my risk-free-rate IV model (a more accurate and tougher analysis tool), I get an intrinsic value of $1.03. I tend to buy when I can see a 50% difference between current price and intrinsic value. Heartland, at 70c, gave me 47%. Near enough is good enough... (or so much for discipline, some might say)

So roughly 50% upside based on 2012 earnings and that 15% growth rate. If they can meet their 2013 earnings, then I would look to re-rate this stock closer to $1.50 by the end of this year/this time next year.

If they declare a dividend, then this has winner written all over it.

if i am right, HNZ year 2012 earnings was 6.3cps.