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  1. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by MauroNZ View Post
    To the most knowledgeable guys, I see the SP truly moved in the last 5 years, Jarden indicates a 3% dividend. As I can't see as a growth neither a high dividend paying, then how do you see/rate this one?.
    Not sure where that dividend calculation is going wrong, but including supplemental and full imputation the dividend is over 4%.

    Like Justin said the true indication of where this will go is right there in the NTA value, and just look at normal earnings from last two years of pre-covid operations: 31c per share. Current share price reflects a price/earnings ratio of only 7.7x if you think earnings will eventually return to previous levels.

  2. #232
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    Looking at the bigger, long term, post covid picture, the big concern would be business travel and conferences. It will go one of Two ways. Either the world will move to video conferences and abandon the hotel jollies, or there will be a big reaction against working remotely, as people will be getting totally sick of it.
    that report a few posts back did mention there would likely never be a return to pre covid levels.

    Once the vaccine arrives, and all the hotel covid contracts end there could be a lull in occupancy levels. We do not know how lucrative the covid contracts are, but they are probably quite substantial.

  3. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Looking at the bigger, long term, post covid picture, the big concern would be business travel and conferences. It will go one of Two ways. Either the world will move to video conferences and abandon the hotel jollies, or there will be a big reaction against working remotely, as people will be getting totally sick of it.
    that report a few posts back did mention there would likely never be a return to pre covid levels.

    Once the vaccine arrives, and all the hotel covid contracts end there could be a lull in occupancy levels. We do not know how lucrative the covid contracts are, but they are probably quite substantial.
    - MCK gets half its profits from CDI (not related to hotels in anyway).
    - MCK hotel portfolio includes many central properties in main centers where real estate prices have surged dramatically. If there is a long term trend away from hotels, these properties can easily be converted to residential, which can either be rented or sold (see the Zenith property in Sydney)
    Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 27-11-2020 at 09:47 AM.

  4. #234
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    Prime Minister announced today that travel bubble with Australia to open in first quarter 2021:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...ister-confirms

    MCK should be jumping on this news, strange to see no upward movement yet.

  5. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi View Post
    Prime Minister announced today that travel bubble with Australia to open in first quarter 2021:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...ister-confirms

    MCK should be jumping on this news, strange to see no upward movement yet.
    They will lose all their captive guests, probably doing very well out of being covid centres

  6. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    They will lose all their captive guests, probably doing very well out of being covid centres
    MIQ hotels are still rented by government on long term contracts through 2021, and will still be needed for everyone else entering NZ from places other than Australia (likely any that are dropped out of the pool would be the regional hotels). Having said that, MCK only have a few hotels in the MIQ pool currently anyway, and one of them is just a management contract instead of company owned.

    The benefits of our largest inbound tourism market (By far) reopening will far outweigh any drop-off in revenue from MIQ (if any).

  7. #237
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    Surely there should be a more significant increase over the holiday period (new years ect)

  8. #238
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    MCK has closed its Millennium hotel in Queenstown citing unsustainably low occupancy levels:

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/millennium-hotel-ice

    A longer term view would say no better time than the present to ‘make improvements’ due to the low opportunity cost of minimal lost revenue as a result of disruption. Will be interesting to see how extensive the improvements will be.

    Guess we will get a better sense on how bad hotel trading is when the full year results are released in a couple of weeks (if last years timing is anything to go by).
    Last edited by Southern Lad; 28-01-2021 at 09:40 PM.

  9. #239
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    Interesting report saying domestic spending on hotels has increased significantly year on year (to help offset the loss from international tourists). Maybe the MCK assets in the main centres has held up better than in the foreign tourist locations like Queenstown. (also the MIQ government rental contracts will help MCK - both directly on the hotels in MIQ pool, and also removing competing hotel beds from the market.)

    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...re-still-doing

    Screen Shot 2021-01-29 at 12.30.16 PM.jpg

  10. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern Lad View Post
    MCK has closed its Millennium hotel in Queenstown citing unsustainably low occupancy levels:

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/millennium-hotel-ice

    A longer term view would say no better time than the present to ‘make improvements’ due to the low opportunity cost of minimal lost revenue as a result of disruption. Will be interesting to see how extensive the improvements will be.

    Guess we will get a better sense on how bad hotel trading is when the full year results are released in a couple of weeks (if last years timing is anything to go by).
    Makes a whole lot of sense:

    "Our two Copthorne hotels in Queenstown remain open and we look forward to welcoming guests now and into the future to these hotels,’’ the spokesman said.‘‘Having recently completed building works at Copthorne Hotel Lakefront we will take this opportunity to make improvements to the Millennium Hotel Queenstown before reopening at a later date.’’

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