Todays the day - place your bets ladies & gentlemen!
The impact of reopening to our largest tourist market are going to be significant, especially with something close to one third of Auckland hotel rooms being unavailable as they are part of the continuing MIQ pool. That means the two thirds of rooms that aren't in the MIQ pool will see an outsized demand pop from the Australian travel bubble.
Is the Australian demand going to make up for all the missing Chineses,American,British,German,French ,Japanese tourists etc .....
Is the Australian demand going to make up for all the missing Chineses,American,British,German,French ,Japanese tourists etc .....
Not sure you realize that MCK is basically a property game, not just due to its majority ownership of CDI .. and a number of Australian apartment blocks?
Lets face it - FY2020 brought them despite zero tourism still 29 cents EPS, not bad for a terrible year, isn't it? Whatever this year brings, it is on the hospitality front likely to be better with Ossie's starting to return ... and who knows, maybe China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea (arguably all doing better on the Covid front than Australia) are next? In my view only political games could hold their return back.
Ah yes, and the property front - do you expect real estate prices to crash? I don't.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 06-04-2021 at 10:07 AM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Is the Australian demand going to make up for all the missing Chineses,American,British,German,French ,Japanese tourists etc .....
Eh...The Australian demand is going to make up for all the missing demand from Australian tourists, which is by far the largest part of the NZ tourism market, accounting for almost 50% of international visitors.
Form tourism NZ:
Prior to COVID-19, Australia was New Zealand’s largest international visitor market, accounting for almost half of all international visitor arrivals and spent $2.7b in 2019.
Between domestic and Australian tourists, and with a big chunk of hotel capacity still being allocated to MIQ, the hotel occupancy rate for MCK will be looking very nice indeed given the current global situation.
And of course also worth noting that NZ will be a much more popular tourist destination for Australians than usual, given the simple fact of a lack of other choices.
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 06-04-2021 at 10:06 AM.
Good share price reaction so far - up over 10% this week. Still a LOT of room to run, and I expect a statement from MCK at some point soon with details on initial booking surge for April 19th onwards.
Qantas reporting very strong demand for Australians travelling to NZ for Ski season. MCKs three Queenstown Hotels (and possibly its Taupo hotel) are poised to do very well this winter. Hopefully the 2nd Queenstown hotel currently undergoing refurbishment (one has already just been done) can be ready in time to catch most of the season.
- Hotel operations currently cashflow positive
- MCK Queenstown hotels getting a significant boost from the opening of trans Tasman bubble,
- Increasing bookings from regional corporate conferences, and 4 other regions performing above last year.
- CDL property sales also way up on last year.
- Choosing to make more significant refurbishments now to increase opportunity for growth once borders re-open
Looks like there is the possibility it could be another profitable year if CDL continues performing and hotels remain cashflow positive (IMO)
Still trading at a ridiculous discount to NTA (HALF)
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 25-05-2021 at 11:24 PM.
Air NZ update today seems bullish for MCK hotel operations:
from Air NZ:
The Tasman market is building following the opening of the Trans-Tasman bubble in late April 2021, with capacity currently at around 70% of pre-Covid levels.
and:
Domestic capacity is now at approximately 90% of pre-Covid levels, and corporate demand continues to show strong signs of recovery, averaging around 80% of historical levels for the past three months. Importantly, our Domestic load factors are also tracking in a similar range.
Air NZ update today seems bullish for MCK hotel operations:
from Air NZ:
and:
Lets hope the hotels can find the staff. Many of the old staff were given the boot, and have moved on to other employment, and not too many replacements about.
Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
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