MCK - Millennium & Copthorne Hotels.

[BlackPeter]

If you are the buyer of 10,000 at $1.50 ,and get them,I think you will be "well positioned."

So do I ... ;. Admittedly - I don't put my hopes too high - bull and silverblizzard are just not effective enough in spreading fear.

[percy]

Hard swimming against the tide.

[BlackPeter]

Hard swimming against the tide.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348166

A good result - both revenue and earnings are (slightly) up.

Given the amazing discount the market attributes to this company are they a steal ...

[Beagle]

If you are the buyer of 10,000 at $1.50 ,and get them,I think you will be "well positioned."

Possibly all they're worth in the current environment. Fresh test of multi year support at $2.50 coming up. I would expect very heavy discounting to be rampant for the foreseeable future as hotels clamour to try and fill huge numbers of empty rooms left vacant by risk averse non travellers. The significant increasing supply now coming on stream at places like Queenstown could not have come at a worse time for existing hotel owners.

I can't see anything to get excited about for current holders here. Unless one is getting them at a screaming bargain price this looks like a very good sector to avoid.

[BlackPeter]

Possibly all they're worth in the current environment. Fresh test of multi year support at $2.50 coming up. I would expect very heavy discounting to be rampant for the foreseeable future as hotels clamour to try and fill huge numbers of empty rooms left vacant by risk averse non travellers. The significant increasing supply now coming on stream at places like Queenstown could not have come at a worse time for existing hotel owners.

I can't see anything to get excited about for current holders here. Unless one is getting them at a screaming bargain price this looks like a very good sector to avoid.

Have a look at their balance sheet, beagle. Their main business is actually owning CDI shares :

This is a deep value play anyway, but happy if you talk them a bit further down.

[Beagle]

CDI talking a slowing development book when the real estate market is booming

[BlackPeter]

CDI talking a slowing development book when the real estate market is booming

They talked last year a downturn in revenue and earnings and delivered a nice increase instead. Just a refreshing change from the otherwise usual over promising and under delivering. These guys rock.

[winner69]

OMG ....MCK and what’s happening re virus and they mention EXISTENTIAL CRISIS

that’s bad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...116/318972.pdf

[traineeinvestor]

OMG ....MCK and what’s happening re virus and they mention EXISTENTIAL CRISIS

that’s bad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...116/318972.pdf

The occasional existential crisis is no bad thing - everyone should ask themselves whether their lives are meaningful.

Given that the most recent consolidated accounts (i.e. including CDI) showed next cash/deposits of $98 million to which can be added whatever they earned post balance date, the present state of affairs will have to go on for a long time before they have solvency issues.

[BlackPeter]

OMG ....MCK and what’s happening re virus and they mention EXISTENTIAL CRISIS

that’s bad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...116/318972.pdf

I guess they need to demonstrate how bad things are to remind Cindy to include as well larger hospitility business into the rescue package.

But no doubt - 2020 won't look pretty, However - if any company has the balance sheet to survive such a crisis, than it would be MCK.

BTW - 40% of their income from their CDL holding ... will people stop buying property?

NTA per share $4.52. Current match price $2.29.

Forward PE (3 years) if I write 50% of this years expected revenues off): 8.4;
Forward PE (3 years) if I write all revenue off this year: 13.3;

Didn't manage to get my model into an actual loss situation (unless I start cutting into CDL's income as well or if they keep lots of staff they don't need).

Not sure, though how important the stock market listing is for the majority shareholder. Otherwise there might be a low ball takeover offer in the wings ...