Seeka

[Lewylewylewy]

Good for seeka:
Currency likely to be in their favor.
Product is essential.

Bad for seeka:
I believe from memory they have high debt. Might lead to CR?
Difficulty getting pickers, possibly going forward.

Anything i missed?

[BlackPeter]

Good for seeka:
Currency likely to be in their favor.
Product is essential.

Correct. An overall world wide shortage of fresh food due to an oversupply of dumb populist politicians plays as well in their favor.

Bad for seeka:
I believe from memory they have high debt. Might lead to CR?
Difficulty getting pickers, possibly going forward.

liabilities to assets in last FY report was 57.9%. Yes, this is at the upper limit of a sensible debt load (though I think they reduced the debt in the meantime by selling and back-leasing some orchards). On the other hand - interest rates are low and dropping - i.e. as long as they keep the cash flow going, this should not be a huge problem.

Lack of pickers is an issue, but should be manageable. The problem is not the lack of people who could do the work, but the oversupply of populist politicians who want to stop them. Lots of unemployed tourism and hospitality staff who could do the work.

I suppose our politicians will find the very obvious solution before unharvested fruit start to rot and markets start getting depleted of fresh food, but maybe I am a bit naive by still believing in some common sense?

Anything i missed?

I think you got the main points related to the Covid-19 crisis. Obviously - it is not the only crisis in town, and the jury is still out what climate change (mid term much more damaging than what the corona virus will do) will throw at Seeka and other producers.

There are plenty of risks (like unseasonable hot and cold temperatures, drought conditions, fire, floods, storms, hail) which might damage or destroy their crops, but there would be as well the opportunity that they might be better prepared for all these things than the competition and could benefit from high demand in a low supply situation. They seem to have so far at least safe water supply (even in Australia) - not sure what their preparations are for other issues the climate crisis will throw at them and others.

[kiwidollabill]

Potentially expect an increased COGS

With the requirement to distance workers in their packhouses, likely to decrease efficiency of throughput? Likewise other areas of the business?

[BlackPeter]

Potentially expect an increased COGS

With the requirement to distance workers in their packhouses, likely to decrease efficiency of throughput? Likewise other areas of the business?

In my view the only thing which matters is - how do they do compared to competition? If everybody else around the world has the same problems ... they can put any additional food production costs straight forward to the consumer.

Pretty sure this is what is going to happen. Be prepared for food prices to go up in the supermarkets.

[peat]

New Zealand’skiwifruit season is just kicking off and so far the industry body is confidentthere are enough pickers and packers for this year's crop.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/k...orkers-for-now (paywall)

[iceman]

Good news that kiwifruit growers are finding pickers. Hopefully some reliable hard workers from affected industries like forestry etc. Lets hope all our range of fruit can be picked, packed and sold. The country sure needs it https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-pos...i-adaptability

[kiora]

Good news that kiwifruit growers are finding pickers. Hopefully some reliable hard workers from affected industries like forestry etc. Lets hope all our range of fruit can be picked, packed and sold. The country sure needs it https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-pos...i-adaptability

There are still logs leaving from the wharf stockpiles so need those forestry workers back cutting pretty soon
https://www.napierport.co.nz/quick-l...-7be4db5b-5002
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/...moveable-feast
And increased prices
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...art-indicating

[peat]

(From the 6th March) it has been somewhat disappointing to see the demand for Seeka drop off recently

so yeh buying demand really dropped off on Seeka during the last six weeks , despite there being indications of it not being disastrous at all, and suddenly now a bit of a rip roar coming back up.
it does show how there are clear opportunities for those keeping an eye open. I picked up a few more at 3.50, but am starting to be too overweight so will lighten up if the buoyancy sticks around.

Zespri saying how it was all going well the other day was also positive news for the industry.

[bull....]

so yeh buying demand really dropped off on Seeka during the last six weeks , despite there being indications of it not being disastrous at all, and suddenly now a bit of a rip roar coming back up.
it does show how there are clear opportunities for those keeping an eye open. I picked up a few more at 3.50, but am starting to be too overweight so will lighten up if the buoyancy sticks around.

Zespri saying how it was all going well the other day was also positive news for the industry.

good trade just sold last mine today brought in just above you

[iceman]

Harvesting going quite well by the sounds of it despite still some issues with getting enough workers. Despite the COVID restrictions, SEK are packing around 90% of pre-COVID volumes and so far have packed 12.5m trays (12.8 in 2019) of which 7.4m (6.4) has been shipped. All looking good so far.