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Thread: Seeka

  1. #361
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    Appreciate you sharing Pmdv77. And why risk any potential action , fair enough. No one is calling BS , you are being bit precious there imo.Anyone sharing on here under a moniker is open to questioning and a little scrutiny is healthy to back up your opinion, details. Hope you stick around as genuine contrarian views are at least as important on here.

  2. #362
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Aongatete is very small compared to seeka and eastpack which is the other big player( which merged with satara) in the bay of plenty area. they paid to much because as we said and that other person said and you should read in seeka announcement ( there estimated tray from aquisition ) the supply is not guaranteed only the 1m that other person implied.
    bull, I just don't think that the market has the data to assess this.

    Sure - if we measure their value only in committed trays to store, than yes - it appears that Seeka paid much more for them (per tray) then what Seeka is worth if measured in trays of Kiwifruit. However - Seeka is bigger than that, and I suppose so is Aongatete.

    Not sure though how to value the worth of their other services, connections, know how and staff. To make this assessment we would need to do due diligence and analyse their books. A bit difficult given that they are not yet a public company. Have you done that and want to share your knowledge with us?

    ... and just looking into number of trays - the announcemnt (I am sure you read it -didn't you?) talks as well about a much higher number of expected trays. Who knows - maybe Seeka has already a secured supply but had no processing facilities? Is this unthinkable?

    But, if you think they overpaid - how much do you think Aongatete are really worth (and why) - and why do you think the SEK board decided to throw money away?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 14-03-2019 at 12:54 PM.
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  3. #363
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    bull, I just don't think that the market has the data to assess this.

    Sure - if we measure their value only in committed trays to store, than yes - it appears that Seeka paid much more for them (per tray) then what Seeka is worth if measured in trays of Kiwifruit. However - Seeka is bigger than that, and I suppose so is Aongatete.

    Not sure though how to value the worth of their other services, connections, know how and staff. To make this assessment we would need to do due diligence and analyse their books. A bit difficult given that they are not yet a public company. Have you done that and want to share your knowledge with us?

    ... and just looking into number of trays - the announcemnt (I am sure you read it -didn't you?) talks as well about a much higher number of expected trays. Who knows - maybe Seeka has already a secured supply but had no processing facilities? Is this unthinkable?

    But, if you think they overpaid - how much do you think Aongatete are really worth (and why) - and why do you think the SEK board decided to throw money away?
    its about wrapping up the market , taking out the smaller players sometimes you got to pay more to get these people too sell , probably people who have been doing this business most of there lives . seeka will get some coin back on the deal by getting rid of people in duplicate roles and other savings and synergies.

    anyway if they dont secure the supply ( who know may have already ) then it was well overpaid
    bull

  4. #364
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    Valuing things that fit ‘strategic’ purposes is never an exact science.

    What matters is that Seeka reckon that they can get Ebitda up to ~$4m

    Interesting though that the price/ebitda multiple of ~6 is higher than what SEK is trading at now.
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  5. #365
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    Kiwifruit Post-Harvest takeovers and mergers are interesting. Dynamics are a little different now that the industry remains in full organic growth mode with recent G3/Sungold areas starting to come online. If you look at Apata and its merger with Aerocool, within 4 years, Apata's volumes were back where they were under a single site operation. The industry is getting better at getting longer term commitment from its orchards as Seeka demonstrated with the purchase of the Northland facility last year - only selling off the orchards to those who would commit to 10 year contracts.

    In terms of the other revenue streams within post-harvest, orchard management is precarious at best and a number of operations only break even, safe in the knowledge that they can clip the ticket on packing and coolstorage.

  6. #366
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    Thanks for joining us in the discussion again Pmdv77. You clearly have knowledge of the industry and I for one very much appreciate such knowledge and views being shared on here. I find the industry very interesting and like being invested in through SEK so any comments and debates are helpful.

  7. #367
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    Is this "Heartland Strategy" of Seeka's simply a bid to roll-up and monopolise the Tauranga region?

    Post Harvest Operators

    • Eastpack Limited
    • Seeka Kiwifruit Industries Limited
    • Apata Group Limited
    • DMS Progrowers Limited
    • Trevelyan’s Pack and Cool Limited
    • Hume Pack-N-Cool Limited
    • Aongatete Coolstores Limited
    • Opotiki Packing and Cool storage Limited (OPAC)
    • Auckland Pack and Cool (APAC)
    • Mount Pack and Cool (MPAC)
    • Riverlock
    • Orangewood Kiwifruit Post-harvest & Orchard Management
    • Birchwood Packhouse Limited


    From https://www.nzkgi.org.nz/industry/industry-players/

  8. #368
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    It would require a lot of capital to monopolise - taking Seeka purchase of Aongatete, the facility is probably 4mTE status quo throughput historically with max capacity being 4.5m TE (and heavily caveated in that the fruit would need to be Kiwistart due to coolstorage volume limitations). $25m / 4m TE = $6.25 per Tray. Aongatete only had around 2.5% market share.

  9. #369
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pmdv77 View Post
    The issue with knowledge is understanding where the legalities sit in situations like this. I know the target company very well indeed (how else would I have the detail around tied in trays etc) but am not going to risk potential action against me especially with how quickly a number of people were quick to call BS on my statement...
    Thanks for your input to the forum Pmdv77.

  10. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    yea seeka overpaid thats why the price was down yesterday. based on pmnd77 statement 1m is committed long term either thru lease or contract the rest seeka must be fairly confident of retaining as usually smaller packhouse dont have many of there contracts longer than season to season. notice also seeka didnt mention any costs associated with redundacies etc as i imagine most of the Aongatete admin people or duplicate roles will get the boot.
    Actually - just noticed that Seeka went ex-dividend (12 cents per share) - but I am sure this can't have anything to do with the SP drop ... must the the purchase, isn't it?
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  11. #371
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pmdv77 View Post
    It would require a lot of capital to monopolise - taking Seeka purchase of Aongatete, the facility is probably 4mTE status quo throughput historically with max capacity being 4.5m TE (and heavily caveated in that the fruit would need to be Kiwistart due to coolstorage volume limitations). $25m / 4m TE = $6.25 per Tray. Aongatete only had around 2.5% market share.
    As a listed company, Seeka has access to capital.

    Looks a bit like a "rollup" strategy to me, like what Aussie listed companies often do with dentists, medical imaging companies, camping grounds etc and other small/medium sized businesses. The share market values their earnings at a higher P/E than private investors. Some of this is justified by economies of scale and reduced risk through diversification, the rest by increased prices.

    No need to be a monopoly, a duopoly or even a 4-5 company oligopoly will have more pricing power.

  12. #372
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    In light of recent events interesting project name

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332140
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  13. #373
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    In light of recent events interesting project name

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332140
    Ouch ... you can't be careful enough, can you?

    Pretty sure though this has been unintentional ...
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  14. #374
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Ouch ... you can't be careful enough, can you?

    Pretty sure though this has been unintentional ...
    Seem to have put up a new announcement leaving the project name out ...pretty quick eh ...somebody must have pointed it out to them
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  15. #375
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    Could be a worry for Seeka. Avocado-wrecking beetle discovered in New Zealand.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...in-new-zealand

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