Seeka

[Filthy]

couldn't find any guidance; just this outlook statement in the analyst pack. guess it means doing our own estimate/sums...

The 2024 kiwifruit crop looks better, industry forecast at 193m -
Class 1 trays FOB− Hayward volumes high
SunGold back to a normal average

Australian crop looks excellent -
Access to new spray programme
Wet summer, no drought, crop estimate up

Operationally ready -
Labour supply improved
Infrastructure set for 50m+ kiwifruit trays

[Toddy]

If you do the numbers based off the 45m trays I mentioned you should be in the range.
The capacity gap to the 50m will be filled as the new plantings come on stream over the next couple of years.
Seeka was trying to secure more fruit off growers at other post harvest facilities but it is a race to the bottom if yiou offer too large packing discounts.

Im picking no guidance because the numbers are so impressive that if you said them out loud the market would not believe you.

I have seen the Eastpack forecasts based on just under 50m trays. We are talking about record cashflows and profits.

The new technology that all post harvest operators have been investing millions of dollars in are going to surprise everyone in a good way.

It's always difficult to talk so positively about the horticulture industry as we are always bitten somewhere. Having said that, all of the hard work and difficult lessons of years gone by can and will reward everyone when we get it right.

[iceman]

couldn't find any guidance; just this outlook statement in the analyst pack. guess it means doing our own estimate/sums...

The 2024 kiwifruit crop looks better, industry forecast at 193m -
Class 1 trays FOB− Hayward volumes high
SunGold back to a normal average

Australian crop looks excellent -
Access to new spray programme
Wet summer, no drought, crop estimate up

Operationally ready -
Labour supply improved
Infrastructure set for 50m+ kiwifruit trays

Yes no guidance whatsoever. I suppose they can be forgiven for that given last year's disasters, at least until the harvesting has started. But I'm sure they're glad they have no firmly put 2023 behind them and if all goes well, should have a stellar 2024. If they can fully utilise their capacity, we could be in for a much needed excellent year.

[Toddy]

Just some insight into the forecast tray numbers and why they reasonably accurate now days.

1. Zespri and the post harvest operators have monitor orchards and send out regular updates. Fruit estimate size, maturity and numbers etc.
2. Each individual orchard has monitoring bays which are counted by the PHF to give fruit per sqm estimate.
3. More and more growers are using the computer scan
technology. A quad bike drives up and down every row in the orchard and takes a photo scan. This technology is 98 percent accurate. I was scanned two weeks ago.

The data is then adjusted for estimated rejects and size to come up with a tray number.

Hopefully we will see the end of the manual count system in coming years as the scan is more accurate and the cost is becoming very competitive with manual counting.

[bull....]

result as expected ... should be better next yr. no forecast anyway heres my guess

revenue 350m
NPAT 15M

Div ? who know's as focus is on debt levels

[Filthy]

Div ? who know's as focus is on debt levels

yep, would prefer for them to hold off on the div and just apply to debt first. think the market will react better to that.

[Toddy]

yep, would prefer for them to hold off on the div and just apply to debt first. think the market will react better to that.

Also a bit tricky to work out because we don't know how many growers took up the fixed price packing contracts a year or so back.

[bull....]

banking convenant is 3.5x net leverage so they need to reduce debt bit morre before div's can be paid . maybe net debt around 130m or higher if they can get ebit up closer to 50m

[Toddy]

Just back from the Eastpack pre harvest update.

There were alot of big numbers and challenges talked about.

This was the scariest number from an NZ on the ground point of view and a direct quote.
Eastpack have hired approx 4000 staff for the harvest. There were 25,000 applicant's received. Yes, 25,000.

What this means I do not know. Immigration influx, back packers, locals desperate for work. Probably all of the above.

[Toddy]

Eastpack is the largest post harvest operator in the Industry and expects to pack 52 million trays this harvest.

Can Zespri ship and sell this crop. Odds are against things going to plan with such large volumes.