Seeka

[RTM]

Absolutely. And humans will just stop eating to compensate for this problem, won't they?

Well, maybe not.

Given that the risks of climate change apply to anybody in this essential industry and given that humans still will need food - why would that be a specific problem for Seeka? If climate change reduces the yield in the industry (which it might) than consumers will be happy to either pay more or eat less.

Take your pick.

There could be other places in the world...or even NZ.... that become more suitable for Kiwifruit horticulture BP as the climate changes. e.g. South America. South Africa ?
I don't know..but climate change could change what we are good at doing.

[Sideshow Bob]

There could be other places in the world...or even NZ.... that become more suitable for Kiwifruit horticulture BP as the climate changes. e.g. South America. South Africa ?
I don't know..but climate change could change what we are good at doing.

Zespri grow in a number of countries around the world to ensure they can supply year-round - I think 7 (but that is a few years ago).

They also own alot of the modern varieties.

[BlackPeter]

There could be other places in the world...or even NZ.... that become more suitable for Kiwifruit horticulture BP as the climate changes. e.g. South America. South Africa ?
I don't know..but climate change could change what we are good at doing.

True. Looking however into the climate modeling for various parts of the globe would I say that there will be many places less suitable for growing crops than NZ, but sure - there might be as well some places becoming more suitable.

Our advantage is that we are in the moderate zone ... and close (but not too close - sea level rise) to the sea - i.e. temperature increases will be less extreme and rainfall generally should increase (which is a good thing if you live e.g. in semi-arid Canterbury ;. Obviously - extreme rain events will increase as well (but I recon, this is manageable - just look at horticulture in the tropics).

However - undoubtedly there will be challenges for everybody to cope with the transition from now to then.

We might get as well a handful of new pests introduced and we might need to move (e.g.) Kiwi fruit plantations and Avocados to the South Island, but similar issues will apply to all parts of the globe.

People still will want ot eat fresh fruit - I am sure about that.

[Jaa]

Jeez, you sound like somebody with an axe to grind.

Numbers didn't look horrible - better than last year and better (or equal) to analyst predictions.

Ah yes, and Michael Franks offered that anybody with additional questions re the announcement can contact them (him or the CFO) after the meeting - contact details are in the NZX announcement.

Why don't you do that? Too hard for you? I guess whinging and making false claims on an anonymous internet forum is easier?

I am wondering in whose court the competence issues might lie?

What false claims?

The share price is down 7%, so the market clearly thinks the numbers and outlook look horrible.

[Getty]

As recently as late April, and May, 2 directors bought at $5.20 /$5.17.

Would they have done so if they thought they were going to get juiced?

Current SP $4.06 gives estimated forward PE 17, compared to TGG which has also stopped dividends for now, on PE 20.5.

Will the amalgamation synergies and new machines off set this years negatives, going into a new season?

[bull....]

As recently as late April, and May, 2 directors bought at $5.20 /$5.17.

Would they have done so if they thought they were going to get juiced?

Current SP $4.06 gives estimated forward PE 17, compared to TGG which has also stopped dividends for now, on PE 20.5.

Will the amalgamation synergies and new machines off set this years negatives, going into a new season?

chuck in scales as well for high pe stock in the sector as well. think people paying to much for any of these types of stocks going forward with the risks due to climate change now. the past the weather was predictable ... not now deserves a risk premium i reckon

[dibble]

Did you watch the webinar? He explained that. Unseasonal rain stopped / delayed the ripening of the fruit.

Not a "breakdown of the growing cycle"- though, obviously - with climate change accelerating should we expect unusual weather events becoming more and more usual. This however is a problem all growers will face, i.e. as long as comsumers want fruit it is a cost they ultimately have to carry.

Hmm, its possible you missed the point. Easy to palm that variation off as "unseasonal" under old school thinking but consider the moving parts of a harvesting business in a few more years of climate change (you appear not to be a denier)...and the financial impacts. Increasingly unpredictable timing of budding, ripening, flying staff over from wherever, rainfall etc is going to be expensive, as might be changing crop. Can prices cover costs? Who knows.

Im keeping my holding.... short term, probably be approximately OK...and long term food is likely to remain a requirement. And i like the company. But the scale of variation offers plenty to mull over re future dividend stream medium term.
Just saying.

[GTM 3442]

So we have climate change. At the moment, New Zealand grows kiwifruit in places which have a climate suitable for growing kiwifruit.
As the climate changes, these places are likely to become less suitable for growing kiwifruit. But other places will become suitable for growing kiwifruit.

I don’t think that the kiwifruit industry will disappear, I think it will move.

And moving a whole industry- not just the cultivated land used to grow the crop, but all the associated infrastructure - together with the people needed to staff the industry, is going to require massive amounts of capital expenditure.
And that’s not capital for expansion and growth, but capital to simply maintain the industry at it’s current size.

It’s going to be a huge project.

Think of the position than New Zealand King Salmon find themselves in – having to migrate their operations some hundreds of kilometres south if they’re to survive.

Think in terms of the vast sums sunk into the development of the South Island dairy industry over the past couple of decades.

As climate change progresses, I think there’s going to be a huge change in New Zealand’s land use patterns as various crops and industries have to up sticks and move to survive. Taking their workforce with them. And requiring all the associated infrastructure to support both the people and the industries.

Horticulture has been good to me over the years, but I find my investment timeframe shortening.

[BlackPeter]

What false claims?

...

Well, you said:

...

Freight issues have been "normal" for at least 2 years

...

Clear evidence that you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. Where have you been the last two years - behind the moon?

...

The share price is down 7%, so the market clearly thinks the numbers and outlook look horrible.

I suppose you missed looking at the volume before crying wolf - didn't you? At the time you made this statement less than 1000 shares had changed hands (and overall despite your significant downramping and smearing the company efforts it was still just a trickle).

[bull....]

So we have climate change. At the moment, New Zealand grows kiwifruit in places which have a climate suitable for growing kiwifruit.
As the climate changes, these places are likely to become less suitable for growing kiwifruit. But other places will become suitable for growing kiwifruit.

I don’t think that the kiwifruit industry will disappear, I think it will move.

And moving a whole industry- not just the cultivated land used to grow the crop, but all the associated infrastructure - together with the people needed to staff the industry, is going to require massive amounts of capital expenditure.
And that’s not capital for expansion and growth, but capital to simply maintain the industry at it’s current size.

It’s going to be a huge project.

Think of the position than New Zealand King Salmon find themselves in – having to migrate their operations some hundreds of kilometres south if they’re to survive.

Think in terms of the vast sums sunk into the development of the South Island dairy industry over the past couple of decades.

As climate change progresses, I think there’s going to be a huge change in New Zealand’s land use patterns as various crops and industries have to up sticks and move to survive. Taking their workforce with them. And requiring all the associated infrastructure to support both the people and the industries.

Horticulture has been good to me over the years, but I find my investment timeframe shortening.

well said , nobody can predict where this climate change will take us.
just look at the disruption to insurance companies as an example of another industry being effected.