Laserbond Ltd - LBL

[4be]

Hi Sulphuric,

Has been a profitable trade so far!

Their forecast for first half suggests revenue about the same as 2H11, but NPBT about $0.5m down - although that's not too unexpected when they had a bit of a rush up in profit at the end of second half. I think they are worth about 30cps, but don't expect them to get much past 27cps this year unless they go into upgrade cycle in the second half as happened last year. I'm working on NPAT of $1.7m for FY12.

If they manage the "investing for growth" part well, then there is quite a bit of upside. But could also be bumpy in a business this size, so I may take a bit off the table somewhere along the way.

Hi Liz,

my concern with LBL is if China slows down -hard or soft its going to effect LBLs revenue. They seem completely correlated to the aussie mining boom To me the macro risk here is high that LBL might not have the growth its looking for in 2-5 years time? What are your views?

[Lizard]

Can't really answer - they're such a small player at this stage that it is pretty hard to know what they will be able to do - after all, the mining industry might reduce and make growing the market more difficult, but it won't be disappearing overnight.

Neither do I see them as a "super-high-quality" company for a long-term hold at this point, so still very much a "spec" in my books which means reduce risk when appropriate. Doesn't mean they won't grow into something more (as, say, Imdex once did), but it's a wobbly path for any company this size.

[Lizard]

Tidy report out for first half. Some capex to work through for future growth, so hence encouraging holders to take up DRP for the new interim div (0.3cps). Some effect expected from increased fixed costs/capacity initially underutilised but I am working on $1.7m NPAT. I have value to 28-31cps (currently 25.5cps).... notes to convert at 15cps this half should keep the sell side topped up with over 1m shares to go. Enough to let new holders in, not enough to spoil the trade.

[percy]

Tidy report out for first half. Some capex to work through for future growth, so hence encouraging holders to take up DRP for the new interim div (0.3cps). Some effect expected from increased fixed costs/capacity initially underutilised but I am working on $1.7m NPAT. I have value to 28-31cps (currently 25.5cps).... notes to convert at 15cps this half should keep the sell side topped up with over 1m shares to go. Enough to let new holders in, not enough to spoil the trade.

Thank you Lizard.I brought some this afternoon at 24.5cents.

[Lizard]

I have sold half my holding into the recent run as have had a good return on my 12cps entry with capital gains and divs over the past 9 months.

Cash always handy so I can find new shares for the collection. Happy to keep holding the rest.

[percy]

I have sold half my holding into the recent run as have had a good return on my 12cps entry with capital gains and divs over the past 9 months.

Cash always handy so I can find new shares for the collection. Happy to keep holding the rest.

Funny ??!! I looking to add to my holding>>>!!! maybe I have too much cash.!!
Although looks as though up trend has stopped on chart.

[slimwin]

A pause I hope. I bought at 27.

[Lizard]

Funny ??!! I looking to add to my holding>>>!!! maybe I have too much cash.!!
Although looks as though up trend has stopped on chart.

Different circumstances require different styles! I tend to spend more cash than I get in, so only get excess to invest when I sell something.

I'm just reporting that I've sold a few. Just trying to keep the integrity of the thread, not a recommendation to others.

[Lizard]

I have sold half my holding into the recent run as have had a good return on my 12cps entry with capital gains and divs over the past 9 months.

Cash always handy so I can find new shares for the collection. Happy to keep holding the rest.

In trading halt pending cap raising to be followed by spp with record date at todays date.

Cash from selling half might end up back in again if the price is right.

Sounds like they have a larger contract with Alcoa too for parts to alumina refineries in other parts of the world. Though, on the downside, the various growth initiatives looked to have dragged down second half, so probably see some disappointment.

[percy]

In trading halt pending cap raising to be followed by spp with record date at todays date.

Cash from selling half might end up back in again if the price is right.

Sounds like they have a larger contract with Alcoa too for parts to alumina refineries in other parts of the world. Though, on the downside, the various growth initiatives looked to have dragged down second half, so probably see some disappointment.

SPP will save me brokerage.!!! Looks as though we are "well positioned."