FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[moose]

Quote of the year from CNBC (unattributed but must be long-standing fro some wise old hound- Beagle?) - " Any Great Company can be turned in to a terrible investment just by running the share price up too far"
F&P is (to everyone I think) a Great Company - it probably should be in everyone's long-term portfolio but it is (in a rationale market if such a thing exist) susceptible to interest rates because it is one of the ultimate bond proxies. Its share price was "high" pre-covid due to very low interest rates, it got a C-19 sugar-rush and is now settling in a higher interest rate environment. Its still a Great Company that will achieve a 10-15% CAGR over the next 10+ years but it will always be a low% div payer on its current share price (but if you buy now it will look very cheap in 10+ years.)

Once interest rates have turned(may not be that far off) the cycle for FPH may become favourable again and those future cash flows won't be discounted as they have been and I will look for a reentry. Near a mkt bottom, but right now across much of the world equity sellers outweigh buyers,watch and wait.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks moose
Im not alone

[Beagle]

For what its worth I like to buy growth companies on a forward PE of 9 (representing no growth) + 1 PE more for each 1% estimated or proven rate of annual growth which I think is sustainable for the next 5-10 years. FPH's long run CAGR is 12% so in this instance I would consider it a great buy at 9 + 12 = 21 times estimated next years earnings which at a rough guess might settle at consensus estimate of 50 cps once all the analysts have updated their estimates. FPH would be a great buy at 50 cents estimated eps a PE of 21 = $10.50.

I seriously doubt FPH will go that low, (but you never know...there could be a huge exogenous shock to the market at some stage), so it probably won't ever get into my portfolio and I'm quite relaxed about that but there are plenty of stocks out there that fit my GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) great valuation search finding criteria. SUM a classic one which has a CAGR of 33% over the last decade but is unloved and will go back into my portfolio when TA suggests the timing is right. HGH and TRA are other examples of unloved growth stocks on compelling metrics.

I don't chase market darlings on stretched metrics, never have and never will and stick to what I know works for me. Good luck to holders, I think this downtrend still has quite some way to go.

[Waltzing]

It was a great trade after the GFC for many many years..but once it got up there it was obvious to get out..and wait for another big shock..

and there is always one coming....unfortunately..

[couta1]

For what its worth I like to buy growth companies on a forward PE of 9 (representing no growth) + 1 PE more for each 1% estimated or proven rate of annual growth which I think is sustainable for the next 5-10 years. FPH's long run CAGR is 12% so in this instance I would consider it a great buy at 9 + 12 = 21 times estimated next years earnings which at a rough guess might settle at consensus estimate of 50 cps once all the analysts have updated their estimates. FPH would be a great buy at 50 cents estimated eps a PE of 21 = $10.50.

I seriously doubt FPH will go that low, (but you never know...there could be a huge exogenous shock to the market at some stage), so it probably won't ever get into my portfolio and I'm quite relaxed about that but there are plenty of stocks out there that fit my GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) great valuation search finding criteria. SUM a classic one which has a CAGR of 33% over the last decade but is unloved and will go back into my portfolio when TA suggests the timing is right. HGH and TRA are other examples of unloved growth stocks on compelling metrics.

I don't chase market darlings on stretched metrics, never have and never will and stick to what I know works for me. Good luck to holders, I think this downtrend still has quite some way to go.

Yes we have heard this same story from you umpteen times with this stock now, stick to that car sales stock you once described to me as the biggest dog on the NZX, oh wait your now it's biggest fan.

[couta1]

It was a great trade after the GFC for many many years..but once it got up there it was obvious to get out..and wait for another big shock..

and there is always one coming....unfortunately..

Hmm Beagle and yourself up late and posting together, you seem to like brown-nosing with the hound.

[Walter]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

[couta1]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

PE of around 35 pretty standard for a company like FPH and compared to its peers, apples for apples. Looking at the latest result in depth its very impressive compared to pre covid figures and the eps would support a sp of around $22 right now.

[Arbroath]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

OMG you just put FPH and Rakon in the same sentence like there is some kind of equivalence in quality between them!

[BlackPeter]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

You must be kidding using these two companies in the same sentence.

FPH is an oustanding medical company with great management and a very long and successful track record of building on their successes. Medical industry is very conservative ... successful products can be gainfully sold for a long time. They own lots of IP, they know how to make money with it. They tend to underpromise and overdeliver.

RAK on the other hand operates in the telecommunication industry with rapid innovation cycles. New generations of chips are coming and going fast, and any new generation can wipe out the one off sales success they might have had by sheer luck. Three steps backwards and than one step forward is not called sustainable progress.

RAK used to be controlled by substandard management, driven by a family with big egos and more interest in paying itself big dollars than in the success of their company. RAK has a long history of overpromising and underdelivering ...

Flea ridden dogs typically sell cheap, even if the previous owner claims that they just had treatment.