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  1. #281
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Nice work , seems you can make money even with the Kiwi dollar going up ....RAK what's the story .........
    The story for Rakon is they did what Pumpkin Patch did (i.e David Jackson). They assumed they were the 'experts' and just read the experts advise, and then did whatever they wanted about the currency.

    Fisher and Paykel Healthcare however (i.e Tony Carter and their risk committee) understand that they pay experts for their experts advise and follow what the currency experts say.

    I have read many Asia Pacific currency reports, and they are frequent and pretty spot on. David Jackson and Bruce Irvine both believed they knew better and failed. Pumpkin Patch is better off without David Jackson on their board and running their risk committee.

    Asia Pacific client list

    Overall good forecast, shows the Medicare process was a good buying opportunity, $3+ by year end, especially if we also get some currency relief.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  2. #282
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    i love it., just accumulating on the right time.., justify today..

  3. #283
    Guru
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drongo View Post
    Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

    Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.



    Its different this time......Yeah right...

    It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

    Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
    Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.

    I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.


  4. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

    Its different this time......Yeah right...

    It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.
    Hoop agree, long term 5 -10 years, the NZ dollar will retrace to a fair value. However I disagree on your view of the quote. The article seems to take Mike Daniell out of context, within the wider business to focus on one view. He says maybe here to stay, i.e. if you are an exporter plan for the next 5 years of a strong NZ dollar. It doesn't mean FPH are not planning for a reversion, they are just worst case scenario planning, prepare for the worst. Mike Daniell is a very experienced and competetant CEO for FPH, and has been with the company 30 years.

    Also not he is not on the risk committee, which is responsible for the high level risk management, including currency management, and I rate their risk committee has one of the better risk committees amongst NZX listed firms.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  5. #285
    percy
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    Well I have a record of being 100% wrong on currency.
    My view is NZ $ will continue to out perform the US$.
    The last 40 years have been out of kilter.
    We will see the NZ dollar return to it's true value,and I expect it to be twice the value of US$ over the next few years as US printing money will devalue the US$.
    Manufacturing in NZ will get more difficult and we will see more of FPH manufacturing move out of NZ.
    I see the US developing more of UK sickness.Lack of new jobs,more people out of work,and Local Govt and The Govt failing to balance their books.Think California.
    Last edited by percy; 25-02-2013 at 02:38 PM.

  6. #286
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    Drongo by name but NOT by nature. Agree too many worriers out there..just get on with it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Drongo View Post
    dont understand you 2, forget about dollar changes, the dollar will change regardless,just get down to business.

  7. #287
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    You can nominate all you want but personally I agree completely with him. Having a chief exec who recognises the global reality and is not living in "hope" makes him a smart bugger. The last thing the US wants is a strong Dollar so longing for the "rightful" position of the NZD is just buying into the good old days will return.. Yeh right!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

    Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.



    Its different this time......Yeah right...

    It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

    Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
    Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.

    I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.


  8. #288
    Member Huskeez's Avatar
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    Hope some of you traders caught this break out last week up 10.95% since last week, some big off market buyers!
    Last edited by Huskeez; 20-05-2013 at 10:28 AM.

  9. #289
    Member Huskeez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Good ol' FX rate coming into play now
    Nice to see , wonder where the new resistance will form , 3.20 from oct 2011 maybe? , Time will tell xoxo gossip girl

  10. #290
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    Good start to week and on Thursday FPH release financial results for the year....

    Holding

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