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25-05-2012, 12:45 PM
#251
Originally Posted by Lizard
Percy - that's a bit cheeky using the growth rate from the "constant currency" calculations and the NPAT from the actuals... best-of-all-worlds analysis :P
Sorry if mixing up figures.I used catalyst's figures then went to the company's announcement to get growth figures."constant currency" would be the constant figure an analysis would use to get a true figure?
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25-05-2012, 12:52 PM
#252
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Thanks Percy ,sending you alphabet soup (with additional star signs and trig symbols) pssst i have analysis allergy.
Look forward to receiving it.....lol.
Lets try PE divided by [growth plus dividend].
Don't worry working it out as I think Lizard will supply us with the constant correct figure.
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25-05-2012, 12:56 PM
#253
Originally Posted by David B
I see the market has taken it well. Down 6.58% at the moment! Go figure.
As you may appreciate I am having enough trouble trying to "figure" the company's figures ,so will have to leave the market for you to "go
figure."
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25-05-2012, 02:48 PM
#254
Percy, Constant currency figures give a PE of about 26, so PEG is greater than 1 - although your method includes the divs (which I don't entirely approve of, given they are not being paid out of excess cash).
On an actual result level, there is barely any growth at bottom line, so PEG no help at all.
While the constant currency result might look better, it is really difficult to conclude where a "constant-currency" could be pegged while we are seeing longer-term structural changes and/or longer cyclical moves in forex that cannot be easily smoothed. Once the dust settles in another 6-12 months, FPH is one I might be taking a closer look at.
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25-05-2012, 08:32 PM
#255
Originally Posted by David B
I see the market has taken it well. Down 6.58% at the moment! Go figure.
Been a s/p run ,up to profit announcement with expectations exceeding facts, happens a lot, buy on rumor sell on the fact type exuberance. And outlook for next years ebitda and profit is flat. So we are back to banking on the exchange rate dropping AGAIN thats no way to invest.Its like being gifted the popcorn that didn't pop.
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25-05-2012, 08:51 PM
#256
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
So we are back to banking on the exchange rate dropping AGAIN .
Many commentators reckon that long term the NZD will be stronger for longer - like BNZ's Tony Alexander said yesterday in one of 10 projections for the future "The NZD will be (already is) structurally higher against the US, British and European currencies thus curtailing returns from those regions for exporters...."
We should be proud to have a strong currency .... means a strong economy
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31-05-2012, 10:32 AM
#257
Member
FPH down over 15% in last six trading days ($2.45 to $2.07 currently).
Cum a 7cps divi (record date 22 June).
NZDUSD hovering near six months lows at 75c.
FPH has always found support around $2.10 - $2.12 over the last five years (will it hold by days end?).
At mid-point of FY13 NPAT guidance range ($62m - $70m), FPH currently trading on PE of 16.4x, EV/EBITDA of 9.7x and gross yield of 8.3%.
Disc - took a punt this morning.
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31-05-2012, 10:50 AM
#258
Surely this must be an irrational selloff? The company is still growing revenues at a healthy rate (though net profits ain't moving much) and dividend looks sustainable. Share price at 8yr low, maybe long term investors are just giving up.
Don't see the 2.10-2.12 support holding after it goes ex-dividend in 3 weeks!
Maybe after US elections, the world will be happier again, boost the US dollar and FPH will regain it's former glory :-)
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31-05-2012, 11:02 AM
#259
Originally Posted by winner69
.....We should be proud to have a strong currency .... means a strong economy
Couldn't agree more !!
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01-06-2012, 12:24 PM
#260
Member
Managed to get out this morning without any damage. Not a good sign that the previously strong $2.10 - $2.12 support area has been broken. I don't think the fundamentals look too bad under $2.10 but the market doesn't think so at the moment. Might wait until the dust settles a bit...
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