FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[newbieinvestor]

My bad …I should have tagged the urgent message as relevant to existing long term committed investors who take such opportunities to top up when shRe price is weak.

My fundamental DCF value still much the same ….market still disagrees with me eh

winner69 - Yep, entered FPH nearby your calculated DCF today..... lets see how the market handles and if the SP reaches the DCF value......

[alokdhir]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...

[winner69]

winner69 - Yep, entered FPH nearby your calculated DCF today..... lets see how the market handles and if the SP reaches the DCF value......

In light of alokdhir mentioning $27 you need to recall I mentioned a margin of safety ….say 20% off that $28.34

[newbieinvestor]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...

@alokdhir - Thanks!! indeed FPH is following the Nasdaq downtrend ... didnt quite connect as thought this was more of a manufacturing company and not Tech ... but yeah from the looks of the nasdaq
declining & Omicron etc it will go to 28~ at least..

@winner69 - Thanks!! guess I thought it would bounce back faster but unlikely given nasdaq falling and omicron... should have kept a bigger margin of safety at 27-28~!

In light of alokdhir mentioning $27 you need to recall I mentioned a margin of safety ….say 20% off that $28.34

Anyways will see how it goes in tommorows trading....

[alokdhir]

Very soon market will realise ...selling FPH is not a very wise move ...lol

NZD will drop on record current account deficit due to tourist & foreign students dollars missing ...Exports need pick up the slack...for that NZD need drop to around 60 cents levels

" The annual current account deficit was $15.9 billion in the year ended 30 September 2021 (4.6 percent of GDP), $13.5 billion wider than the year ended 30 September 2020. The largest annual current account deficit prior to this was $14.7 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) in the year ended 31 December 2008, during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.The change in the goods balance from a $2.0 billion surplus in the year ended 30 September 2020 to a $3.8 billion deficit in the year ended 30 September 2021, and the change in the services balance from a $2.7 billion surplus to a $4.3 billion deficit, over the same period, were the biggest drivers of change to the annual current account."

[newbieinvestor]

Very soon market will realise ...selling FPH is not a very wise move ...lol

NZD will drop on record current account deficit due to tourist & foreign students dollars missing ...Exports need pick up the slack...for that NZD need drop to around 60 cents levels

" The annual current account deficit was $15.9 billion in the year ended 30 September 2021 (4.6 percent of GDP), $13.5 billion wider than the year ended 30 September 2020. The largest annual current account deficit prior to this was $14.7 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) in the year ended 31 December 2008, during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.The change in the goods balance from a $2.0 billion surplus in the year ended 30 September 2020 to a $3.8 billion deficit in the year ended 30 September 2021, and the change in the services balance from a $2.7 billion surplus to a $4.3 billion deficit, over the same period, were the biggest drivers of change to the annual current account."

@alokdhir - Very well explained (the current NZ account deficit) ...The NZD looks weaker each day vs USD moving from .71 -->.671
Have been looking to convert some NZD into USD to diversify & invest in declining US stocks for the long term.... but each day the NZD is looking weaker and perhaps the USD is also gaining strength...
Say if someone was trying to invest 50K NZD(FIF limit) they would earlier get 35+K USD and now they get 33.5K USD and going lower....
Just when the correction in US markets begun .... (bite the bullet or Smartshare-like ETFs)... well thats life!

Anyway FPH results\updates should be good...whether if that reflects in the SP might be another thing I wouldn't know.........

Cheers!

[moose]

Very soon market will realise ...selling FPH is not a very wise move ...lol

NZD will drop on record current account deficit due to tourist & foreign students dollars missing ...Exports need pick up the slack...for that NZD need drop to around 60 cents levels

" The annual current account deficit was $15.9 billion in the year ended 30 September 2021 (4.6 percent of GDP), $13.5 billion wider than the year ended 30 September 2020. The largest annual current account deficit prior to this was $14.7 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) in the year ended 31 December 2008, during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.The change in the goods balance from a $2.0 billion surplus in the year ended 30 September 2020 to a $3.8 billion deficit in the year ended 30 September 2021, and the change in the services balance from a $2.7 billion surplus to a $4.3 billion deficit, over the same period, were the biggest drivers of change to the annual current account."

FPH share price has made very little sense since Aug 2020. Prior to COVID having any impact it was sitting in the low-mid $20s. Since then we have had a global respiratory disease pandemic that has given them almost unlimited free advertising and boosted their growth by "at least 3 years" - in their words (and they have a consistent track record of about 15% YoY growth). Yet the SP has risen about 20-30% (depending on your exact starting point) which is less than the US indices (and F&P is essentially a US company from a revenue growth perspective (it is already the dominant player in NZ/Oz).

Its products are in no way COVID-specific, it has virtually no debt, a huge history of achievement and one of the best management teams around - but is unloved by the market and is currently being considered as a high-risk tech stock.....go figure.

NZ Inc may be heading for the ****ter according to many posts here (and I don't necessarily disagree) - but FPH (with MFT) are still a good way to get exposure to overseas economic conditions without holding foreign shares (with all the tax implications of that).

Perhaps the issue is that FPH is seen as too good a stock for traders at the moment and with a yield of 1-2% you need a 5yr+ horizon in the current interest rate enviroment?

[winner69]

Huge 3% plus swing this morning ...up of course

[Joshuatree]

Mkt is discounting future cashflows now that int rates are rising hence high PE stocks on a downward cycle.

[alokdhir]

When FPH was trading at P/E of 50 at that time OCR was 4% ....so its not that simple to justify SP of FPH ...but its sentiment and valuations are at lowest ebb it has ever been ...What goes down will come up if u are a patient investor .

Today maybe bounce day for it as it went downhill much sooner then other blue chips .