FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[ratkin]

In retrospect, the worst investment I've ever made is selling FPH about 13 years ago. Had bought them for $2.95 each but then sold 90% of them off after two years when the SP moved very little. I'd be sitting on an extra $600k if I hadn't...

Disc: Holding (never gonna give you up)

Yeah we all get them. Mine was xero lots of if onlys.

I bought into FPH a few days ago for 25.00. They just seem to have all the tailwinds at the moment, weakening NZ dollar, increasing production, directly involved in helping Covid patients.
Only thing that concerns me short term is if Mexico has a bad case of virus and the production factories have to close or are disrupted by supply issues or whatever.
But apart from that there appear to be no negatives

[Biscuit]

Yeah we all get them. Mine was xero lots of if onlys.

I bought into FPH a few days ago for 25.00. They just seem to have all the tailwinds at the moment, weakening NZ dollar, increasing production, directly involved in helping Covid patients.
Only thing that concerns me short term is if Mexico has a bad case of virus and the production factories have to close or are disrupted by supply issues or whatever.
But apart from that there appear to be no negatives

What do you think about Trump's promise to "go to war" on the virus including ramping up production of "ventilators"? How is that likely to impact FPH short/long term?

[ratkin]

When reporters ask Mike Pence and Donald Trump about wanting enough ventilators, do they mean respirators for the patients ?

Ventilators are very different from the things FPH make, they both help with breathing though.
A ventilator actually pushes air into the lungs, and is generally for serious conditions. FPH makes respirators that are for things like sleep apnea etc. Am not sure what there actual purpose is in treating covid 19

According to their website, the optiflow system they make helps prevent the need for intubation, which I think means it reduces the need for a ventilator, but im not 100% on that

[Biscuit]

FPH seem to have a good thing going with devices that blow air at people, I'd be a bit wary of Federal interference in that market.

[Champion]

Ratlin and Biscuit - FPH key products in fighting covid 19 are the respiratory humidifiers and a product called Airvo. The respiratory humidifier is used with ventilators to condition the gas. So the more ventilators are used, the higher the demand of FPH products. Airvo is a flow source to help the patient to breath through the use of nasal highflow (alternative to ventilators) with a built-in humidifier, usually for less severe patients who can breath for themselves, but need assistance.

Product for sleep apnea is just part of their business, but probably more well know to people.

Hope this helps.

[Blue Skies]

Ratlin and Biscuit - FPH key products in fighting covid 19 are the respiratory humidifiers and a product called Airvo. The respiratory humidifier is used with ventilators to condition the gas. So the more ventilators are used, the higher the demand of FPH products. Airvo is a flow source to help the patient to breath through the use of nasal highflow (alternative to ventilators) with a built-in humidifier, usually for less severe patients who can breath for themselves, but need assistance.

Product for sleep apnea is just part of their business, but probably more well know to people.

Hope this helps.

Thanks for clarifying this Champion.

Also can add to these what they call 'consumables', all the parts which need to be regularly replaced, filters etc which of course provide an ongoing income stream for FPH long after the device has been sold.

[Joshuatree]

In retrospect, the worst investment I've ever made is selling FPH about 13 years ago. Had bought them for $2.95 each but then sold 90% of them off after two years when the SP moved very little. I'd be sitting on an extra $600k if I hadn't...

Disc: Holding (never gonna give you up)

I hear you but these are extraordinary times and i want more cash where i can get it for amazing opps later. So ive sold afew into this uplift demand. Int research note out from my broker, estimates FPH can lift production 30% short term, mentions the boom bust cycle when covid 19 is contained and have a target price of $25.50 with a hold FWIW.

[kiora]

JT they are making some assumptions that may be better informed than me.

Mine
Demand vs supply:I would assume they previously have been on one shift,what if they went to 3 shifts?
Raw material from China priority(can get as much as they need)
Corona takes longer to control than they estimate
FPH have large market share in Optiflow & intubation,protected by patents & difficult to replicate
56% sales are consumables with high margins that need to be replaced
I'm not putting a figure on it,it would only be a guess but easy to see could be higher than their price target

[ratkin]

If this does last Eighteen months it plays right into the hands of FPH. There will be a constant stream of customers and a long lasting demand. Even after the outbreak there may be some needing ongoing care

[Joshuatree]

As I said unprecedented times , i want some more ammo for extremely distressed cap raises etc, think back to 2008-9 .FPH is a great stock right now but i can see my money working better elsewhere in the not too distant future. Still holding a bunch atp.