FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Beagle]

Mid point of upgraded forecast is $265m after tax = 46.1 cps and at today's closing price this puts FPH on a PE for the year ended 31/3/2020 of 61.5
eps last year was 40.62 cps so growth rate for 2020 = 46.1 / 40.62 = 13.5%

If we zoom out and use the ol Ben Graham model of a zero growth PE of 8.5 (call that 11.5 because risk free rate is 1%, was 4% in his day) = 2g I see a fair PE of 11.5 + (2 x 13.5) = 38.5.

Looks expensive but then again it always has and probably always will be. Nice uptrend on the chart...a rare thing on the NZX at present. Existing holders should probably ignore the expensive FA and ride the TA uptrend until the bend in the end. GLTH.

[iceman]

Mid point of upgraded forecast is $265m after tax = 46.1 cps and at today's closing price this puts FPH on a PE for the year ended 31/3/2020 of 61.5.

Yep. Unreal. I bought my first lot at $4.25 a few years ago (can´t remember exactly when) and we´ve had constant comments on here saying ever since then that they´re overvalued. Don´t take me wrong, I´ve thought so myself on many (most) occassions but Mr Market never seems to agree. My biggest mistake with these was to ever sell any !

[Biscuit]

Looks expensive but then again it always has and probably always will be.

Not true, FPH has not always been "expensive". The current astronomical PE is no guarantee that it will always be so highly priced - which I would think is highly doubtful.

[Beagle]

Yep. Unreal. I bought my first lot at $4.25 a few years ago (can´t remember exactly when) and we´ve had constant comments on here saying ever since then that they´re overvalued. Don´t take me wrong, I´ve thought so myself on many (most) occassions but Mr Market never seems to agree. My biggest mistake with these was to ever sell any !

Well done mate.

Not true, FPH has not always been "expensive". The current astronomical PE is no guarantee that it will always be so highly priced - which I would think is highly doubtful.

FWIW I look for stocks trading on a multiple of 1 times the growth rate + a no growth PE of 11.5. Obviously this fails my screening test by a very wide margin lol

[Biscuit]

FWIW I look for stocks trading on a multiple of 1 times the growth rate + a no growth PE of 11.5. Obviously this fails my screening test by a very wide margin lol

I've held FPH for over 10 years and regularly sell some when I review my stocks. Those sold shares have cost me more money than any other investment decision I have ever made. But there is no way I could justify buying them back at that PE.

[kiora]

I see AIA could be a good buy on PE of 41,2021 PE 199,2022 PE 50 but somehow I'd rather have FPH
Price is what you pay,value is what you get, someone knowledgeable once said

[Beagle]

I've held FPH for over 10 years and regularly sell some when I review my stocks. Those sold shares have cost me more money than any other investment decision I have ever made. But there is no way I could justify buying them back at that PE.

Well done to you for holding for so long and regularly reviewing your portfolio.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the next year what with obvious substantial extra demand with Covid 19, (only a very small amount of which would have fallen into the FY20 year) so should give a huge boost to FY21 as will the lower currency. I bought a bunch of Kingfish warrants the other day for a few cents, not exercisable til March 2021 and FPH is their equal largest holding at 16% of their portfolio, also ATM. I guess I potentially have a piece of the pie for a very low cost outlay but to be honest I think there's at least a 50% chance the warrants will be worthless at exercise time so who knows, I might have jack, time will tell.

For what its worth I think there's at least a 50% chance the whole market could fall 30-40% in the next year. Whether this could stay immune from that sort of a serious second leg to a bear market is anyone's guess.

[Jonboyz]

I see AIA could be a good buy on PE of 41,2021 PE 199,2022 PE 50 but somehow I'd rather have FPH
Price is what you pay,value is what you get, someone knowledgeable once said

Haha, that question was on Who wants to be a millionaire yesterday.

[Lewylewylewy]

I wonder how FPHs factories are faring:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...covid-19-fight

[kiora]

I wonder how FPHs factories are faring:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...covid-19-fight

Not that FPH make ventilators
" Demand for ventilators has also boosted U.S. imports from Mexico, with a 36.2% year-over-year rise in February. Respiratory care equipment maker Fisher & Paykel FPH.NZ accounted for much of the increase. Panjiva also linked some shipments to electronic components maker Flex FLEX.O , which reportedly has committed to producing ventilator parts in response to high demand"
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-pr...07:nL1N2BV18C/
"Fisher & Paykel has put on extra shifts and hired more workers at its factories in both Auckland and Tijuana in Mexico as demand from hospitals and government agencies jumps as the number of coronavirus cases around the world escalates."
"Factories were not yet running at full capacity, and could ramp up further.

Along with respiratory humidifiers, the company also makes medical consumables such as the nasal cannulas and mask interfaces used in invasive and non-invasive ventilation treatment of hospital patients.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is preparing to open a new building at its Auckland operations, and has two buildings across a 41,000 square metre footprint in Tijuana."
https://www.afr.com/companies/health...0200317-p54as9
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...to-us-57935919