FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[alokdhir]

Thanks Alok
Net profit I assume that is, PE around 44?
That is growth 2 years ahead of previous brokers estimates before Covid hit and over 15 % higher than my previous estimate in July, phew !

Yes its net profit of 425 mil estimated for FY 21 giving it a forward PE around 44...
But its all due to covid ...at present they themselves very conservative in saying it wont last ...Resmed RMD said in its last results guidance that super fast growth will taper off soon ...
It doesn't seem so at the moment ...maybe we will get into a period of consolidation in which share price will move sideways with mild downward bias ...but when it will happen depends upon covid control etc .
Though its a great company with excellent track record and management . Best quality on offer ...Most owned institutional stock of NZ ...hardly any retail holders so ATM type shaking of tree here doesn't work ...most institutions do their own research and hold till they get positive data ...not get scared into selling it ..lol

What are your price expectations after this Nov results ...I think 40 + easily possible if they upgrade yearly guidance

From Nz stats data around 60% increase in respiratory equipment exports from last year ending sept 2020 ...they have a big factory in Mexico also ...so not sure that will be seperate additions ?

August middle they upgraded their june guidance ...at that time they assumed covid will be under some control by year end ...which does not seems to be happening

Will be happy to know your thoughts as you have deep knowledge of this company

[kiora]

I don't know that I have any deeper knowledge than any one else here.
Regardless of Covid or not, I expect earnings growth YOY to be between 10-20 %(at a stretch)
They have only tapped 15% of their potential market and Covid appears to be making the clinicians better aware of the potential of O2 & humidification support.
As per SP expectations? who knows or cares?
SP always follows earnings

[macduffy]

SP always follows earnings

Yes, in the long run. Short term, it's the anticipation that sets the pace!

[alokdhir]

Any thoughts on how this Covid vaccine news will effect SP of FPH in near term and also longer term prospects

As struggling to make up my mind about it

In USA markets its competitor Res Med RMD did well ...so did FPH on OTC but vols were low as usual for FPH

It was a big beneficiary of Covid ...so now will it be big looser on cure ??

[MarineSalvage]

Market thinks it will be a loser - seems like a very kneejerk reaction though

[alokdhir]

Market thinks it will be a loser - seems like a very kneejerk reaction though

I also think so that selling off NZ top and best managed company with excellent record and balance sheet is knee jerk ...but fact remains that it may become market under performer for some time till its covid related up move gets absorbed with normal earnings ...still a hold based on quality of the company IMHO

[Blue Skies]

Any thoughts on how this Covid vaccine news will effect SP of FPH in near term and also longer term prospects

As struggling to make up my mind about it

In USA markets its competitor Res Med RMD did well ...so did FPH on OTC but vols were low as usual for FPH





It was a big beneficiary of Covid ...so now will it be big looser on cure ??

Before Covid came along the growth in demand for the sorts of products FPH make was huge with healthcare one of the fastest growing sectors around the world. Then Covid came along and to that added millions of people who will be left with some degree of respiratory damage. The surge in demand has barely begun.

[ratkin]

Before Covid came along the growth in demand for the sorts of products FPH make was huge with healthcare one of the fastest growing sectors around the world. Then Covid came along and to that added millions of people who will be left with some degree of respiratory damage. The surge in demand has barely begun.

Much of it was already priced in though, very high multiples

[alokdhir]

If it keeps delivering like before then higher multiples can be justified ahead also as its a growing , quality company in a fast growth specialist area ...not easy to be replicated .

Today its worst performer ( on some 150k vol down 7.4% ) ...soon Institutions who own most of it may wake up ...lol

But still acknowledge that it will need longish time to recover . Hold though

[MarineSalvage]

Seems like a big call to say we’ve cracked COVID and start buying cruise line shares..