FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[sb9]

Agree the NZD seems overcooked to me too but it has momentum so will probably continue until something changes.

FPH share price driven mostly by overseas investors these days and its a good time for them to sell and take profits with the NZD so high. So expect it to go a bit lower and test $30 once the FDA approves the two vaccines. That's when I plan to top up but then I may just be being greedy!

Yes, the possibility of testing $30 looks like a decent prospect from hereon. And around that level I'd be keen to add this into long term portfolio.

[Leftfield]

I'll confess picking a bottom on any share is not my greatest talent (some say it's a nasty habit).... whatever.... for me it's all about DCA and I prefer to wait and buy in once an uptrend is underway (again.)

So I view my recent FPH purchase as a belated start, with the hope that in a 5 years time whether my DCA is $29, $30 or $31 won't matter too much.

[Louloubell]

I'm also using this time to buy in again. I see the recent drop in price as an over reaction to the news of vaccines ready for roll out.

Am determined not to sell again and put in the bottom drawer.

[Leftfield]

I'm also using this time to buy in again. I see the recent drop in price as an over reaction to the news of vaccines ready for roll out......Am determined not to sell again and put in the bottom drawer.

Well done... I like your long term thinking. Nice to see today's SP move up 40c as I write. A bit early to say the trend is changing, but nice to be 'well positioned.'

[alokdhir]

As per Stats NZ ....FPH November sales appox 200 million with 49 million as NP as per 24.5 % NP margin reported last HY

Its still growing month on month ...Nov sales are highest on record 8% above October

If this keeps going ( most likely keeping in view current world covid situation ) FPH may end up doing 2 Billion sales with 0.5 Billion NP ie 0.86 EPS !!!

[Leftfield]

Attachment 12131

Not often we see FPH trading below 30 and 90 day MA.

Maybe it was a bit of an over reaction to the Covid vaccine news last week but I've now added FPH to my portfolio.

FWIW I expect hospital budgets are going to be boosted for several more years and FPH will continue to benefit.

Feeling a lot better about adding this to my portfolio in early Dec.
Call me a late starter, but nice to be ahead and have a foothold in FPH. Onwards and upwards.

[kiora]

"Consequently, we have no basis on which
to provide guidance for the full 2021 financial year, so we are providing a guide to full-year results
based on the following assumptions:
 Hospital hardware sales return to normal levels from January 2021.
 The use of our hospital hardware returns down to approximately normal rates for the second
half of the financial year.
 OSA diagnosis rates are reduced for the second half of the financial year, due to limited
access to customers.
 Freight costs remain elevated, resulting in a reduction in gross margin of approximately
200 bps in constant currency for the full financial year compared to the prior financial year.
Based on these assumptions, and reflecting sustained stronger Hospital hardware sales to date, full
year operating revenue would be approximately $1.72 billion, and net profit after tax would be
approximately $400 million to $415 million. This guide is based on exchange rates of NZD:USD 0.69
and NZD:EUR 0.58."
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ph.nzx-363846/

So slow down in Covid cases didn't happen
Quite the reverse.
Will they hit $NZ 500 net profit?
Could be stretching it but then again could be close?

[iceman]

I'm with you kiora that the sales are likely to exceed they're forecasts, as they hospital hardware remaining at very high levels. On the negative side however is the stronger NZD than they had in their assumptions but we can not forget that much of their costs are also in FX. So I'm hoping they'll exceed their profit guidance by 10% or so.

[alokdhir]

I'm with you kiora that the sales are likely to exceed they're forecasts, as they hospital hardware remaining at very high levels. On the negative side however is the stronger NZD than they had in their assumptions but we can not forget that much of their costs are also in FX. So I'm hoping they'll exceed their profit guidance by 10% or so.

Most likely they will be upgrading their old guide for FY 21 by mid feb. Question is by ho much ....as they are doing around 200 mil per month revenue in last 3 months as per exports data from Stats NZ ...so IMHO they will end up doing 2.1 billion revenue with 485-500 mil NP for full year results

But upgrade will be to most likely 1.85 - 1.90 revenue and 450-460 mil NP

More important is that positive exposure they got out this Covid situation will be immensely helpful for further growth in years ahead

Most likely it will change the company trajectory of faster growth in years ahead

Most bullish are Fisher Funds and Craigs while many are calling it underperform post Covid

One can decide which camp will be the right one to be in . For me I am firmly with FPH for next 5 years or more ...I see it reaching $ 100 in 5 years

[Leftfield]

Most likely they will be upgrading their old guide for FY 21 by mid feb. Question is by ho much ....as they are doing around 200 mil per month revenue in last 3 months as per exports data from Stats NZ ...so IMHO they will end up doing 2.1 billion revenue with 485-500 mil NP for full year results

But upgrade will be to most likely 1.85 - 1.90 revenue and 450-460 mil NP

More important is that positive exposure they got out this Covid situation will be immensely helpful for further growth in years ahead

Most likely it will change the company trajectory of faster growth in years ahead

Most bullish are Fisher Funds and Craigs while many are calling it underperform post Covid

One can decide which camp will be the right one to be in . For me I am firmly with FPH for next 5 years or more ...I see it reaching $ 100 in 5 years

Great post Alokdhir.

What is often not appreciated is that there will be huge tail winds for FPH in the next 2 - 5 years as hospital budgets throughout the world get priority spending treatment to remedy the discrepancies that Covid has highlighted.

A SP of $50 in 2 years is not unreasonable and your $100 in 5 years is quite possible.