FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[dumbass]

from the chart of my one and only nz share, the rally may hit a little resistance.
down trend line may come into play and there is a possibilty of a bearish ascending wedge.
i will get out if uptrend line breaks or add more if clears 3.50 area.

[dumbass]

it seems there has been a perception that fph is a currency play but the
chart of fph v nzd shows there has never been a strong correlation between the movements of nzd and movements in the fph share price even allowing for dollar hedging.

[dumbass]

In fact it correlates best to the market , funny that !
Maybe noteworthy that it was ahead of the bear market decline in the NZSX50 and therefore the current rally in the fph price could be a signal of a market rally.

[tobo]

dumbass, the market rallied, but FPH went down.
Looks to me as if it's broken out of that wedge (downwards) , and has remained below your dark red resistance line.
What's your pick?

Tobo

[dumbass]

from the chart of my one and only nz share, the rally may hit a little resistance.
down trend line may come into play and there is a possibilty of a bearish ascending wedge.
i will get out if uptrend line breaks or add more if clears 3.50 area.

Tobo,the writing was very much on the wall for fph. with multiple signals confirming.

price tested and bounced off down tend line.

bearish ascending wedge has broken to downside.

the 50% fib level was sitting at 3.45.

divergence on indicator.

so it was a sell at 17/03 close at $3.30 or earlier.

what now ? will have to wait for signals to reenter or move to pastures greener.

[winner69]

it seems there has been a perception that fph is a currency play

Maybe that expalins tobo concern that when market went up over the last few days FPH wnet down

[Hoop]

Is this FPH share price weakness caused by investors changing from a defensive to an offensive strategy to quickly cash in (and cash out?) on the market re-rating of other high quality stocks that have been unfairly ravaged by the bear this past year?
....or has the share price technically reached its limits for now?
....or some other fundamental cause? (currency play?)

If it is a shift in Investor behaviour, will this recent FPH share price weakness happen to other bear market defensive stocks as well? Maybe we should watch the behaviour of other defensive stocks for confirmation.

If it is confirmed, does it imply that the bear market defensive stocks (FPH) will at some stage be at risk of themselves becoming unfairly ravaged by this recent opportunistic investor behaviour.. thus raising the chance of being market re-rated at some later date? (Laggard shares)

Is this characteristic behaviour of a share market in recovery mode? If so early responsive shares are a lot more attractive to the investor than late unresponsive laggard shares.

Will FPH be classed as a laggard share?

Is this going to be the year for the quick footed investor?

A bull calf is born?...or just a technical upward blimp in another suckers rally?

[ratkin]

If you look at the run up of FPH it correlated with the weakening NZ currency. Now the currency is rebounding the price is falling . Same with other export related healthcare stocks in australia.

Good company , but not cheap

[Bob Marley]

A factory in Mexico is looking most likely for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare as it pushes on with plans to expand its manufacturing operations overseas.

Managing director Michael Daniell says the medical equipment maker is continuing to pull in strong revenues despite the global recession and has no plans to defer a move overseas to complement its East Tamaki headquarters in Auckland.

"We're still in the planning stages, though that's not yet complete," he said. "We've indicated we're looking at locations in both Asia and Mexico, and Mexico is very high on the list." Mexico's close proximity to the United States, which makes up over 45 per cent of the market for Healthcare's products, made sense from a transportation point of view, said Mr Daniell, as well as obvious cost savings.

Exposure to markets in the US has not hindered Healthcare's progress during the global downturn, unlike sister company Fisher & Paykel Appliances and struggling New Zealand stocks like Nuplex, Fletcher Building and Mainfreight.

Healthcare's share price has enjoyed a solid start to the year, closing the week down 14c at $3.06, with the company living up to brokers' expectations that it would perform better than most in 2009 given people's need for medical treatment even in times of hardship.

Mr Daniell said recent additions to the company's product line, such as a new auto pressure-setting flow generator, continued to do well, while cover for home diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) by US medical insurance programmes was driving demand for higher spec devices.

Healthcare's last public guidance was in November when it indicated to market that it expected to pull in around $450 million of sales and strong growth earnings.

"We haven't changed our position," said Mr Daniell. "Things continue to look good."

[beacon]

Interesting questions Hoop. FPH is not cheap in my book, despite the growth potential. Obama healthcare policy is influencing global healthcare related stocks, and rmd in OZ and Philips in EU have both suffered recently as a direct consequence. Both signalling weaker outlook. Also NZD expected to strengthen gradually, eroding FPH's forex gains unless they do something drastically more timely than NPX...