FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Rawz]

That question can be simply answered by seeing FPH's past record pre covid times ...it was growing company then also ...It got Pandemic boost and also got long term Pandemic benefit of positive exposure to many many new doctors knowing about their products and therapies . Nasal High Flow therapy was not very popular with doctors before ...now it has gained very high reputation not only for Covid treatment but all other types of pulmonary diseases . FPH is world leader manufacturer of NHFT devices and consumables .

First of all FPH will get new trajectory of growth based on above two moreover Homecare requirements of many recovered but lung damaged cases as they have devices for that also and its already showing " Strong " growth if one reads last update of company

FPH Covid boost will eventually peter out but original growth of 10% plus 5 % extra due to above points will remain ...so it will come back to 15-20 % growth going forward which is great for this high margin company

ATM have brand strength problem and over dependence on single country for profits ...where as FPH is established world leader in its field and sells in 120 countries

FPH will see higher and higher levels after some sideways movement which its doing now since July last year .

In my mind FPH and ATM totally different case scenario

I personally totally agree with your thoughts. The track record is amazing and I don't see why they wont drive exceptional yoy earnings growth on the back of COVID.

The market doesn't seem to buy it. FPH is a funny stock thou, can easily jump 5% in a day on no news. And similarly drop a decent % on no news. It's like the big boy funds are either in or out. No in-between.

[alokdhir]

I personally totally agree with your thoughts. The track record is amazing and I don't see why they wont drive exceptional yoy earnings growth on the back of COVID.

The market doesn't seem to buy it. FPH is a funny stock thou, can easily jump 5% in a day on no news. And similarly drop a decent % on no news. It's like the big boy funds are either in or out. No in-between.

No need worry ...FPH always does lumpy movements as its not a retail stock ...

In my humble analysis it should cross its previous high of 37.89 in next qtr and will make its yearly high after Nov reporting ...expecting 40-43 year end ...just a long term projections ...much can change if Vaccines have problems or new strains etc etc ...at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ...lets c what actually happen but for me thinking Covid free world by year end is too far fetched ...it took 11 years after vaccine to eradicate small pox

[Old mate]

"at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ..."


Covid will be with us forever.

[alokdhir]

"at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ..."


Covid will be with us forever.

72 % of respondents on Newshub Poll today agree with u ....though I am more optimistic about Covid becoming a non entity in 2-4 years time

[Ggcc]

"at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ..."


Covid will be with us forever.

Covid will never be 100% irradiated. As long as there are anti vaccinators, or people refusing to take the current vaccine, Covid will come and go. We need to have a vaccine that the majority of people trust. I will take this vaccine if it is recommended to me by my doctor and hope loads of others do as well.

[winner69]

FPH Covid boost will eventually peter out but original growth of 10% plus 5 % extra due to above points will remain ...so it will come back to 15-20 % growth going forward which is great for this high margin company

ATM have brand strength problem and over dependence on single country for profits ...where as FPH is established world leader in its field and sells in 120 countries

FPH will see higher and higher levels after some sideways movement which its doing now since July last year .

In my mind FPH and ATM totally different case scenario

What I was trying to say that one day when covid boost stops FPH will possibly record a period where growth goes negative or declines significantly v pcp

My mention of A2 is that A2 is a great example of what happens when a high growth company reports dramatically slower growth (even for quite legitimate reasons) .....its share price collapses to more realistic valuation multiples

[alokdhir]

What I was trying to say that one day when covid boost stops FPH will possibly record a period where growth goes negative or declines significantly v pcp

My mention of A2 is that A2 is a great example of what happens when a high growth company reports dramatically slower growth (even for quite legitimate reasons) .....its share price collapses to more realistic valuation multiples

As U are well aware that SP of any stock is based on market perception of its future prospects ...so in my humble opinion that has been already accounted for in the FPH SP ...remember the day vaccine news come FPH was down 12% and that was mid Nov ...till now its moving sideways only and doing its correction time . All analysts have already forecast 20% reduction in FY 22 profits over FY 21 . As this is a already known fact and market has reacted to it so what happened to ATM on its sudden downgrades will not happen to FPH

FPH is increasing its sales by installing new hardware in new hospitals on strong growth for them due to Covid but mainly that now doctors see the importance of Non Invasive Ventilation and its benefits which was not the case before ...this change of doctor's mindset is a long term positive .

Moreover FPH 2019 full year results states that " 86% of the company’s revenue was generated from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories. "

This is the first time they are having big boost to their hardware sales due to Covid and full acceptance of their NHFT devices by doctors worldwide ...now long tail of Covid and recurring items of these installed hardwares will not let sales drop too much for too long

New area of growth has also opened up for them due to covid ...thats Homecare NHFT devices and after this pandemic that will keep sales buoyant for many years to come

On the whole I understand your point but that all market participants already know and have discounted into current SP ...IMHO it has potential to surprise market on upside for FY 22 and 23 numbers

[kiora]

I tend to agree with your synopsis alokdhir

[iceman]

I'm also with you on this alokdhir and you've put it well. It is well expected that current sales growth of new equipment will slow past COVID but the consumables sales, which as you point out are a huge part of FPH's revenue, will continue growing to service all the new equipment they have sold.

Another point to make and in my view & should not be underestimated, is the fact that FPH equipment has now been used by thousands of Doctors Worldwide that had not used it before. They've had to use it during a very stressful pandemic crisis and it has no doubt helped them save tens of thousands of lives. In most cases they will have a very good experience already with the equipment.

Post COVID when Governments start reviewing what happened, one of the inevitable conclusions will be that hospitals around the World, even in most "rich" countries, were ill prepared to deal with this pandemic. This could well see significant expenditure increases and equipment upgrade in many health systems around the World, which would no doubt benefit FPH.

[Rawz]

Nice posts alokdhir and iceman. I totally agree and now fear I'm starting to get confirmation bias. I'm tempted to buy more at these levels... Honestly thought it would be at $40 per share now. The trading update was really positive. Is the market asleep?

Guess everyone is just waiting for the FY21 numbers to be confirmed + market outlook commentary.