FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[LJB]

Wasn't there a briefing the other day with analysts and insto's where they showed off some promising new products. Must be positive sentiment over continued growth through roll out of new products despite currency headwind.

Or is it just market wide positive sentiment for large cap companies in general.

[The Great Gold Guru]

I sold 60% of my NZ share portfolio yesterday ... including all my FPH,SKC,EBO and FBU. Markets seems to have gotten way ahead of itself to me. Am now up 32.4% so far in 2009. That's good enough for me, will gradually sell remaining 40% and will be 100% cash by mid-Aug. Will then stand on sidelines looking for reality to set in later in the year !!

[PartTimeTrader]

I converted all of my CFDs to cash a little prematurely about a week ago. I didn't think the rally would last as long as it has although I still booked a very nice leveraged return for the year.

I'm a bit nervous with shorting stocks, but I've shorted a small amount of FBU yesterday at its peak and several others. Nothing that will hurt too badly if the rally continues.

[Hoop]

I sold 60% of my NZ share portfolio yesterday ... including all my FPH,SKC,EBO and FBU. Markets seems to have gotten way ahead of itself to me. Am now up 32.4% so far in 2009. That's good enough for me, will gradually sell remaining 40% and will be 100% cash by mid-Aug. Will then stand on sidelines looking for reality to set in later in the year !!

Time to sell?... for most of us... no its not.

TA of the NZX and ASX iindices does not say sell .. Most stocks look good.
Even FPH..which has been awful this last few months is now TA turned to buy signals 2 weeks ago and is currently flirting is 3 year downtrend line which I think got breached intraday yesterday. Phaedrus may confirm all this.



However GGG I do not know your strategy...to your credit.. I assume your strategy of reaching your goal of +33% has been reached and you are following your discipline and I admire you to keeping to that discipline .. it is in fact a winning discipline.

GGG I assume the above is true and you decided well in advance your goals but I get this feeling you allowed that emotion factor to dominate your actions and decide now to sell. This decide now action action usually destroys investment timing.. opportunities and existing goals... I hope this isn't true.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Axiom on Greed
2 Always take your profits too soon.
......Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.
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However ...your investment strategy might say sell for you as your personal goals have been satisfied..but this does not mean this rally is over.
In actual fact there are no signs that this historically significant (possible record breaking) rally is over.

I may like your investment discipline GGG but for me my individual personality will not allow me to adopt your type of investment strategy ...

Personally ... exiting the market while in full flight for me would be painful...having to watch the rest of this biggest party for decades from the sidelines would be too much for me to bear.

We don't get these "once in 20years" rallies often ..so when we do get one I personally want to be a part of it.

I will leave this party when the sell signs appear not before.

[Phaedrus]

TA of the NZX and ASX indices does not say sell .. Most stocks look good. We don't get these "once in 20 years" rallies often ... I will leave this party when the sell signs appear not before.

Good on you Hoop. I agree 100%.

Even FPH....which has been awful this last few months is now TA turned to buy signals 2 weeks ago and is currently flirting with it's 3 year downtrend line which I think got breached intraday yesterday.

Ah, now here we part company, Hoop. FPH is not "flirting" with the longterm downtrend line at all. It has in fact [B]re[/B]confirmed it. The intraday spike that you speak of is actually very Bearish. FPH rose a lot, but heavy selling pressure pushed it right back down again, below the Open and even beyond the Close of the previous day. FPH is a Sell. Looking at the short-term chart :-



Here we can clearly see a Dark-Cloud Cover candlestick. These are a Bearish formation. Some factors intensify the importance of Dark-Cloud Covers. They are :-
(1)The greater the penetration of the black body into the prior white body, the greater the chance for a top (reversal).
(2) The formation of this candle on greater than usual volume.
(3) A long upper shadow.
ALL of these factors were present.
This candle fairly screams SELL! and needs absolutely no further confirmation before acting. Those with little faith in such things oriental and demanding confirmatory signals might like to look at the OBV trendline break.... or the Williams'%R SELL signal..... or any of a whole slew of other indicators (including a trendline break).

This is a textbook example of simple trend analysis. Today's weakness should have come as no surprise to anyone.

[Stranger_Danger]

I suspect GGG will look like an egg for a little while, but the bottom line is the cash is in the bank. There is also some chance he will soon look smart - who knows?

You simply don't have to make every last dollar - especially if your risk aversion was present in July 2007 (from memory, GGG was in this boat) and you didn't lose half your wealth (or more by being geared) in the 18 months after that.

For the record, I'm loathe to ignore the trend *too much* (for which I thank Phaedrus sincerely) but will be taking some chips off the table in the next few weeks.

I am starting with a few shares that have not gone up much or at all.

As for the performing stuff (a lot of which is up well over 100% in a fairly short time) my Phaedrus-influenced left eye will keep looking at the chart and try not be toooo soon, but my cynical right eye will be leading the ultimate outcome - ensuring some good profits are taken and that the very real risk that this is a speculative bear market rally is considered.

[Hoop]

Good on you Hoop. I agree 100%.

Ah, now here we part company, Hoop. FPH is not "flirting" with the longterm downtrend line at all. It has in fact [B]re[/b]confirmed it. The intraday spike that you speak of is actually very Bearish. FPH rose a lot, but heavy selling pressure pushed it right back down again, below the Open and even beyond the Close of the previous day. FPH is a Sell. Looking at the short-term chart :-



Here we can clearly see a Dark-Cloud Cover candlestick. These are a Bearish formation. Some factors intensify the importance of Dark-Cloud Covers. They are :-
(1)The greater the penetration of the black body into the prior white body, the greater the chance for a top (reversal).
(2) The formation of this candle on greater than usual volume.
(3) A long upper shadow.
ALL of these factors were present.
This candle fairly screams SELL! and needs absolutely no further confirmation before acting.

This is a textbook example of simple trend analysis. Today's weakness should have come as no surprise to anyone.

Surprise to me P
..watched the spike above the trendline and -2cents at close yesterday...but my brain failed to compute ..rather peed off with myself at that moment of discovery in reading your post... should have seen it as a mental image. Time to buy a decent TA program like Metastock ..relying on 24 hr delay TA programs and added one's mental image to that missing day and a half obviously has its downsides..

Disc: Using my personal strategy and my discipline....I have left the FPH party ( held for 2 weeks.. sold today +8% profit)

...owe you a beer P

[PartTimeTrader]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing indeed.

No matter what trading strategy you followed this year. As long as it did not involve shorting of stock. You probably have a nice realised or unrealised gain for the year.
A monkey picking random stocks to buy on the NZX this year and holding them would have a nice gain.

The 2 biggest "suprises" ( not to some people ) were FPA & NPX.
The people who made the real gains on these stocks weren't TA's. They were people who thought there was real value in those companies and figured on a weighted basis that the risk of
bankruptcy was lower than the potential reward if they solved their liquidity issues.

[Hoop]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing indeed.

No matter what trading strategy you followed this year. As long as it did not involve shorting of stock. You probably have a nice realised or unrealised gain for the year.
A monkey picking random stocks to buy on the NZX this year and holding them would have a nice gain.

The 2 biggest "suprises" ( not to some people ) were FPA & NPX.
The people who made the real gains on these stocks weren't TA's. They were people who thought there was real value in those companies and figured on a weighted basis that the risk of
bankruptcy was lower than the potential reward if they solved their liquidity issues.

OK PTT ..I'll take your bait.

A simple easy to read Example of very simple TA at work (using MA30 only**) with MFT. Note the over 4 times profit I have made when the MFT share had exactly lost over 2/3's of its value during that time. Note how the money compounds with each entry and exit. (see my post #285)

** I am trialing this type investment strategy at present (using many TA indicators not just MA30...as Phaedrus points out using only one indicator is not wise).
I also currently employing this investment strategy type to other shares, FPH included.

Its working extremely well and is beating the market...Any strategy that can beat the market is good... PTT try it before knocking it.


PS: with reference to FPH... " I"ll be back " (The Terminator 1984)

[PartTimeTrader]

I actually do use TA as part of my analysis. I'm not saying it doesn't work, TA certainly has some merit but it only has merit because of the domino effect of other traders who genuinely believe it "works". If I don't believe in TA, but 99% of the market does. Then what I think does not matter. When a sell signal is generated, I'm not going to be holding this stock because theres going to be huge selling by all the TA's which will crush the price. Of course, 99% of traders aren't TA's. It's about finding the right balance between fundamentals & TA to beat the market.

You back tested MFT over the period that proves your point. If you go back further, it no longer holds true.

I bought a ton of MFT on the day it went ex Dividend a few weeks ago for 4.05-4.1 on a CFD trade. Easiest money ever

Reason? the volume of shares traded in MFT isn't particularly high. One big seller and the share price plummets, the opposite happens with a large buyer. This feature of MFT also applies to CEN which I took full advantage of. I figured it's a good deal given what I know about the company from a FA point of view, the downside seemed fairly limited.
I had seen discussions about MFT from this forum, decided to look at the graphs and did some basic TA but I went ahead and bought anyway.


"Yankiwi
Billionairehead - lol


Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Rotorua, NZ
Posts: 387


For any of those whom are willing to buy after one of Phaedrus's red sell arrows, a 10 cent dividend will be paid this month with an ex date of 17 July.

http://www.mainfreight.com/Files/Dow...ent%202009.pdf

An effective 2.5% discount to the current s/p.

02-07-2009, 11:59 AM #292
Phaedrus
Advanced Member


Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: , , New Zealand.
Posts: 2,257


Don't worry about my red "Sell" arrow, JK - it was way back in May and has no bearing on whether you should buy MFT now or not. Let's rephrase your post....

"For any of those whom are foolish enough to buy a downtrending stock on a falling OBV, a 10 cent dividend will be paid this month with an ex date of 17 July."

Question :- How much do you think MFT will drop when it goes ex? Maybe 10 cents? 2.5% ?"

In "theory" stock price ex dividend should be old price - dividend paid. But given the volume traded in MFT, this was unlikely to happen in my opinion.
The next day, it was selling 4.06 and it has gone up from there onwards. Making me a nice tidy sum. Did I "KNOW" this was going to happen? no not at all but I was more confident than not that this was going to happen, so I took what I thought was a level of risk worthy of the return.