This was my thinking, I would expect some sort of sell-off, but later rally around to the fact F&P is doing well and is a good contributor to current events
Sales growth stopped / sales expected to decline over next couple of years / trading on a PE over 37 / high PE for a no growth company /share price seems to be trending down
Just a few casual observations
Wouldn't surprise me if we got a few posts warning punters to get out ..... echos of last year when a high growth market darling started reporting lack of growth ..... and ending the warning with something like 'I could get interested in FPH at $20'
History might repeat itself ....one never knows
PS - to me (visually anyway) the share price does seem to be trending down ...but I suppose everybody sees things differently
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
I actually dont subscribe to W69 views ...FY 18 NP $ 190 M. , FY 19 NP $ 209 M , FY 20 NP $ 287 M , FY 21 NP $ 524 ....
After such high growth last two years ...it needs to consolidate its earnings called normalisation of earnings ...in such periods companies do not grow but consolidates
Analysts are expecting this period to last till 2023 ...but most likely it will be sooner then that ...In such period companies still command growth PE as they will eventually return to growth path after this need to consolidate above trend recent growth
If FPH was actually predicting 80% growth year after year then it would be trading at internet company PE of 150 ...but its trend growth is 20% EPS growth so it trading at 45 PE keeping in view industry average and company balance sheet is very fair
Last two years it did 37 % and 83% YOY eps growth and now it will consolidate for 2-3 years to return to its trend growth of 20% YOY ...in this time it will continue to command PE of 45 forward .
On that basis FY 22 market consensus of 63 Cents eps brought it to fair value of $ 30 ...which is now upgraded of 69 Cents ...so fair value at present should be $ 33 ...actuals maybe 90 Cents ...
As there is too much uncertainty about Covid and how long it will last ...many FPH analysts had called an end to covid last Nov on vaccine discovery ...but even after one year its not only here but still booming ...
Also people keep forgetting that FPH was not setup to fight Covid ...it has Respiratory medical devices business which was always doing well even before Covid so safe to assume even if Covid vanishes overnight ...FPH will still be doing ok .
After recent HY results we have seen how it outperformed analysts estimates during a lull time of Covid ...so I will not underestimate FPH prospects ahead ..all versions of time scales .
FPH management is known to be most conservative forecasters ...they have track record of always exceeding their guidances as market has full faith in their future predictions .
They are predicting that they will. be needing 5 factories more in next 5 years for which they are going to spend $ 700 Mil ...I am sure many in market will pay attention to such medium term bullish outlook and its not based just on Covid lasting that long
Lister puts this down to the fact there simply hasn't been as much optimism pumped into the market in the past year, but also because some of our biggest players aren't as sensitive to the economic impact of lockdowns and travel restrictions. He points to the Spark, Chorus and electricity companies Mercury and Meridian as examples of businesses that should hold steady as the market digests the impact of the Omicron variant. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare could, in fact, see an increase in investment in the coming days. "Money will move to safer stocks during this period of uncertainty," he says.
hey alokdhir .... Stas NZ say respiratory equipment exports down $51m or 41% in November on pcp
Whats yours / Forbar's model say re sales now
Do we know how much of this equipment is produced by FPH in NZ vs overseas? The stats might be interesting, but not relevant in measuring FPH's health ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Do we know how much of this equipment is produced by FPH in NZ vs overseas? The stats might be interesting, but not relevant in measuring FPH's health ...
Alokdhir and Forbar use this data as an input into their model projecting FPH sales
Model has been pretty good indicator of where FPH are heading for a while now
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Originally Posted by winner69
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