FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Beagle]

But its not fair to holders when someone keeps highlighting the negative aspects only of their stocks . There must be something positive about FPH also ...but only say how pricey and high P/E and its only covid story etc etc is not in good spirit ...IMHO . After all its the most valuable company and they being a manufacturing company could rise to challenge of 2020 and thus got Company of the year award ...still people want to compare it with ATM who didn't even know their inventory levels ...One trick pony vs FPH ....just no comparison .

The spooky thing with ATM and FPH was their confirmed long term downtrends both started in the same month...August 2020. Coincidence or has this something to do with their stretched metrics not stacking up as long term interest rates started to rise ? You folks be the judge.

To be fair, there's no question FPH is a great company. Stripping out the huge tailwinds of Covid and looking back the last five years eps grew from 20.4 cps in 2015 to 50 cps in March 2020 that's a very impressive CAGR of 20% per annum over that 5 year period. Extrapolating that forward suggests that by FY22 they should be earning 72 cps and interestingly, albeit supported by strong Covid tailwinds, analysts are projecting almost exactly that at 71 cps. So that's a 7 year track record of average eps growth of 20% per annum, deeply impressive, no question....but then the wheels are projected to fall off the growth with average analyst forecasts of just 67 cps for FY23 and 78 cps for FY24. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/

A highly innovative company with a deeply impressive track record of strong growth but in a confirmed downtrend since August 2020 and on a FY23 PE of 43 in a strongly rising interest and inflation environment. Priced for perfection...you folks be the judge.

For mine, I'd be interested if the downtrend continues down into the very low $20 range. GLTAH.

[winner69]

$10,000 invested in 2006 in FPH has compounded return of around 16% to date. Now worth around $109,000
My long term view for what its worth, is compounding at 15% long term.
It will be as it will be.

Well done

Keep that up and FPH share price will be about $230 in 2036

Those who think that 5% pa is an 'acceptable' return (ie the discount rate) are looking forward to/ expecting a share price of about $60
in 15 years. My modest 8.5% pa would give about $100



Nominal returns as well

[winner69]

Marketscreener shows analyst Free cash flow forecasts as -

Act 2021 441m F22 360m F23 313m and F24 338m

Jeez they are quite a lower than my model comes up with .... must revisit my model methinks

And this from a $16 billion company - nearly 50 times free cash flow ...wow

[winner69]

What might happen to FPH sales if many factory workers have to isolate because of omicron and production is dramatically cut back.

Ansell shares plunged today after they said they had to close a factory because of the number of covid cases in it.

[Shareguy]

I have had shares in FPH for a very long time. From memory I started buying at $2.75 and since then have made the mistake of selling a good portion. This is a quality company and as such commands and deserves the current PE in my opinion. Over the years I have heard from many experts who have said “it’s overvalued” yet over time it has consistently performed.

As far as the risk from cv19. I no someone who works there and can say that thier Highbrook plant had many cases last year. There was no outbreaks at all. All staff have blue chip cards so staff movement is very well controlled and reported.

I think it should be in everyone’s portfolio. Great buying under $30 and stick in the bottom drawer.

[Beagle]

Down from $33.40 to $27.75 = 17% in just the last 4 weeks, no worries. Beat the 27% decline in WHS !..so all good.

[newbieinvestor]

At 16:45 the price was $28:31, at 16:59 it closes as $27.75....Hmmmm..........

[iceman]

Down from $33.40 to $27.75 = 17% in just the last 4 weeks, no worries. Beat the 27% decline in WHS !..so all good.

Always interesting when you decide to start hammering the threads with negative posts ! I looked up highs & lows of 3 companies you´ve been favouring in the last few weeks/months. Here are their highs and lows for the last 4 weeks:
OCA 134-112
HLG 719-624
BOT 505-428

All pretty close to the swings in FPH. Sigh.

[RTM]

Always interesting when you decide to start hammering the threads with negative posts ! I looked up highs & lows of 3 companies you´ve been favouring in the last few weeks/months. Here are their highs and lows for the last 4 weeks:
OCA 134-112
HLG 719-624
BOT 505-428

All pretty close to the swings in FPH. Sigh.

Yes...I value Beagles posts, but one does have to be aware that he can produce a convincing argument either way, any stock, any time, depending on what his perspective is of things is at that time.
Not a holder...but constantly reminded by wife that she told me to buy some 10 years or so ago......

[winner69]

OMG - from Stats NZ Oversseas Merchandise Data for December

Respiratory equipment down $50 million (35%) ... from December 2020

And that follows November being down $51 million or 41%

Brutal - hope Forbar don't use this data for their modelling anymore