FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Catalyst]

modandm - FPH haven't hedged at or near 80c. They've got 57% cover around 69c for FY12. So if the NZD/USD spot rate avg's 80c during FY12, FPH will have an effective rate of about 74c (57% x 69c + 43% x 80c), and according to the company's guidance they will achieve NPAT of $62m.

winner69 - I haven't looked at the accounts in too much detail yet, but I know the company discontinued a range of products in FY10 and they had a one-off cost of c$2m this year which may explain some of the difference. I listened in on the conference call this morning and the management said they expect growth of around 15% in constant currency terms during FY12.

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;346550]Wheres that 20% growth come from percy

From today's announcement under the outlook FY2012 heading.

[winner69]

[QUOTE=percy;346557]

Wheres that 20% growth come from percy

From today's announcement under the outlook FY2012 heading.

I see now Mr Percy ... yes 20% it is

Bit disappointing on the market today though eh -- down 11 to a nice round 300 but if they are right should be closer to 400 this time next year

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;346586]

I see now Mr Percy ... yes 20% it is

Bit disappointing on the market today though eh -- down 11 to a nice round 300 but if they are right should be closer to 400 this time next year

400 this time next year?Yeah Right. Who knows? I like the company,I like its products,I like the health sector .
"What we anticipate seldom occurs;what we least expected generally happens". Benjamin Disraeli. [think he must have had shares too.!!!]

[Lizard]

$3 still doesn't look cheap, but at least we may be heading into a 12 month period where FPH could seemingly see improving profits. That should be the basic recipe for a share price heading in the right direction.

[winner69]

Aussie view of FPH in SMH

Fisher & Paykel in need of healthcare
July 21, 2011

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare shares might soon need to use some of the company's breathing-assistance products if their downward spiral continues.

The New Zealand-based group's stock is now at its lowest point in three years, closing at $NZ2.58 in its home market and $2.01 on the local exchange.

The shares have fallen off a cliff since mid-June, which was well after the company's report, in late May, of full-year results that were ahead of expectations. Most analysts then noted that Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's biggest issue was a rising New Zealand dollar which was eating into its offshore revenue stream and, as Deutsche Bank's David Oxley put it, ''masking'' the efficiency gains achieved by management.

Most of the brokers reined in their forecasts for this financial year on the back of the currency effect, plumping for a 12-month price target in ranges of roughly $NZ3.30 a share to $NZ3.50. Those were not big calls at the time because the shares had been running in a range of $NZ3.00 to $NZ3.25 since about this time last year.

A little like a Tour de France rider who falls off the back of the pack, though, the shares are showing little sign of being able to bridge the gap in the near term without a significant shift in fortunes.

They have jagged their way down to yesterday threaten breaking under the $NZ2.50 level, and there is a whisper around that one reason for the decline is that ResMed, which competes in a similar space on sleep relief products, has been nicking market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Certainly ResMed's stock has risen from about $2.85 to just short of $3.10 a share in recent weeks - although that raises a ''chicken and egg'' question. Is the rise in ResMed because it is beating Fisher & Paykel Healthcare in a commercial sense, or because investors are switching from one to the other?

ResMed is due to report its results on August 5, which might clarify the situation.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/fishe...#ixzz1SgSaNjFW

[Rusty]

I think the stregnth of the NZ dollar against the US is having an inpact on the share price. Some advice I was given in relation to FPH was to accumulate when our dollar was weakening. Maybe a graph comparing the NZ/US dollar and the FPH share price would confirm or bust this myth.

[percy]

Gee Whiz.Just had a look at the chart after ready SMH article.Well below 200day MA.
Turned the chart upside down to see if it looked better that way.Still terrible.!!!!

[winner69]

I think the stregnth of the NZ dollar against the US is having an inpact on the share price. Some advice I was given in relation to FPH was to accumulate when our dollar was weakening. Maybe a graph comparing the NZ/US dollar and the FPH share price would confirm or bust this myth.

See post 213 -- nice chart and Phaedrus said "Strange. Again, there is a good correlation, and then ....... there isn't!"

What'll happen if NZD goes to parity with USD?

[Catalyst]

A couple of positive comments from the FPH camp recently might put FPH back on people's radars...
...strong start to FY12 with market share gains (see Friday's AGM speeches).
...FY12 NPAT guidance upgrade to $60m - $65m (based on 80c - 85c NZD/USD x-rates).
...Mexico operations doing well and ramping up production.
...Several initiatives to mitigate strong currency rates.
...NZD/USD dropping from 88c to below 82c over the past few weeks.

And FPH's multiples are currently the cheapest (or least expensive) that I can remember for a long time...
...PE = $2.38 / ($62.5m midpoint of guidance / 520.5m shares) = 19.8x
...EV/EBITDA = ($2.38 x 520.5m + $75m net debt) / $119m EBITDA = 11.0x
...Gross dividend yield = 12.4c / 238c / 72% = 7.2%