FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[kiora]

Interesting posts
Most posters just articulating why they don't own FPH and will never own it?
Because its always too expensive?

That they would rather own WHS,HGH etc etc ???
When they are supposedly looking for yield while interest rates predicted to rise? Then capital value erodes?

While the fewer saying they own FPH/have always owned it and their long term view of the business hasn't changed. That FPH share price follows earnings.

[alokdhir]

Again to restate recent price action history of FPH for the benefit of non holders but expert analysts of FPH ...

In Jan 2020 it started the year at $ 22.20 ...pre covid times ...expecting an eps 50 cents for current year and revenues of $ 1.19 B

It was doing around 10% revenue growth and 20% NPAT growth recently thus SP was rising around 15-20% YOY

So if covid had not invaded us then FPH would have done $ 1.32 B revenues and 60 cents eps in 2021 and $ 1.45 B and 72 cents in 2022 ...and thus SP would have been roughly Jan 2020 as recorded $ 22 ...Jan 2021 around $ 25 and Jan 2022 around $ 28 -$ 30 ...for a revenue of $ 1.45 B or so and eps of 70 cents or so
And stock would have been following a set uptrend with 15% growth and no one would have questioned its valuations and business

But now due to Covid we got 2021 revenues as $ 1.97B and Eps of 91 cents instead and now in 2022 we will get $ 1.70 B and 75 Cents ...

IMO 2022 figures are better then original track no covid results ...should have been roughly 1.5 B and 70 cents but we getting 1.7B and 75 cents ...original track SP would have been around $ 28-$ 30 depending on current rates and equity valuations

So far nothing majorly different then pre covid or post covid results ...just still some extra in revenues thus eps

Now most important question is will FPH return to normal growth path from 2023 with clocking positive revenues over 2022 ??? I know they have changed that to 12% revenue growth expectations from earlier 10%

I am not able to answer that question but maybe people can attempt to discuss this instead of day to day SP ....this view will majorly effect future SP of FPH ahead ...as soon SP need discount next years numbers ...which can be 90 cents eps or 65 cents eps depending on your views

Covid type big disruption of SP of FPH will take time to normalise ...once it reverts back to any repeatable and understandable path it will be market darling again

[iceman]

Thanks alokdhir for taking the time to put the numbers up clearly. It is what I was trying to say in a few words but yours is very precise. FPH in my view is quite possibly a stronger business than we were expecting at this stage, pre COVID. Their name, products and service has gained huge attention all around the World in the last couple of years and tens of thousands of medical professionals have been trained to use it and become familiar with it.
No marketing or advertising can do that sort of work in such a short space of time and it is invaluable to FPH in my view.
As always, a happy holder.

[bull....]

breakdown of channel gives $20 as a not unreasonable t/a target

[alokdhir]

breakdown of channel gives $20 as a not unreasonable t/a target

Very possible and desirable too from longer term perspective ...It need become attractive to stronger hands for that to happen it need keep falling

Also as Omicron version of Covid has made respiratory support almost not required in hospitals so it will be reasonable to assume that Covid advantage to FPH revenues is almost gone from second half of the year .

If they can organically increase next half year revenues over current ones without any further covid help eg another version like Delta which required big respiratory support help then I think SP will be out of the woods ...they need to start ramping up the new contacts and customers they have made in the last two covid years ...now is the time to show the world what that can mean as they are not just one trick pony ...they have lots to sell other then just covid treatment

[bull....]

Very possible and desirable too from longer term perspective ...It need become attractive to stronger hands for that to happen it need keep falling

Also as Omicron version of Covid has made respiratory support almost not required in hospitals so it will be reasonable to assume that Covid advantage to FPH revenues is almost gone from second half of the year .

If they can organically increase next half year revenues over current ones without any further covid help eg another version like Delta which required big respiratory support help then I think SP will be out of the woods ...they need to start ramping up the new contacts and customers they have made in the last two covid years ...now is the time to show the world what that can mean as they are not just one trick pony ...they have lots to sell other then just covid treatment

resmed has similar problems

Sleep treatment giant ResMed says rising freight costs and semiconductor chip shortages are curbing its ability to meet surging global demand for its devices

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...23-p5a77e.html

[couta1]

Very possible and desirable too from longer term perspective ...It need become attractive to stronger hands for that to happen it need keep falling

Also as Omicron version of Covid has made respiratory support almost not required in hospitals so it will be reasonable to assume that Covid advantage to FPH revenues is almost gone from second half of the year .

If they can organically increase next half year revenues over current ones without any further covid help eg another version like Delta which required big respiratory support help then I think SP will be out of the woods ...they need to start ramping up the new contacts and customers they have made in the last two covid years ...now is the time to show the world what that can mean as they are not just one trick pony ...they have lots to sell other then just covid treatment

Far too intelligent an answer in reply to a downramping trading troll. I notice the executive director of the Malaghan Institute said Covid and its variants are not going anywhere for the next 50 yrs, you can expect a rampant mutant outbreak at any time (They are in the process of developing a kiwi non mRNA vaccine cheaper than the Pfizer costs, sounds good)

[alokdhir]

resmed has similar problems

Sleep treatment giant ResMed says rising freight costs and semiconductor chip shortages are curbing its ability to meet surging global demand for its devices

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...23-p5a77e.html

If u read recent FPH announcement fully ...it has said that OCA masks are doing better then last 6 months INSPITE of HARDWARE shortage ...Resmed is having Philips recall boom in sales and demand which they are unable to cash due to manufacturing troubles

Fright cost increase FPH offset to a great degree in last 6 months report by better consumables mix ...it still had 190 basis point effect on GP ...this they have been consistently flagging since covid started ...so I am not too worried ...last 6 months NP margins actually went up inspite of higher freight costs

This time lower NZD and more consumables sales will more then offset reduced GP margins due to freight thus keeping NP margins similar ...after all NP matters more then GP

[Bjauck]

You've tried to pick some arbitrary period of time to suit your own thesis. Winner and I called RYM significantly overpriced relative to its peer in early 2014 and warned of a protracted period of underperformance relative to the only other sector player at the time which was SUM. Since then I have repeated my view over the years several times.
RYM share price on 31 March 2014 was $8.75 and its is now $9.76 a capital gain of only 11.5% in eight years in a rampant bull market for housing, enough for anyone to tear their hair out in frustration.
As expected and foretold this has dramatically underperformed SUM in those eight years which has risen from $3.59 to $11.55, more than tripling its share price.
This is a great example of people simply paying too high a multiple for RYM because of former market darling status and what happens to your returns afterwards over a long period of time. This also has the very real potential to turn into a full decade of underperformance for RYM in my opinion.

To be clear folks, I am not valuing FPH at $15...I am simply stating that this downtrend has real legs and momentum and its very dangerous to apply new capital in a steep downturn without any TA signals confirming a bottom is in. I'm also stating that I think the market darling status with the PE is very much alive and well still with FPH and we have all seen what happens when companies lose market darling status...another great recent example is ATM.

Obviously, Iceman, Covid has provided headwinds for some companies and tailwinds for others and comparing the two is about as helpful as comparing the price of apples and pears but for what its worth I backed the truck up on OCA right after the lockdown started at about 70 cents so its still up 50% from then.

No I didn’t pick an arbitrary period of time. In The post to which I was responding you had said “We tried to warn them just like we did with RYM 8 years ago that's been a dog ever since…”

So the starting point for the period was 8 years ago. I used to hold RYM so I had the 31/Mar/2014 SP on file. RYM SP has not performed as a “dog” for most of the period since then. However for a Beagle maybe performing as a dog is actually a compliment

Sure, SUM’s SP hyper performed in comparison to RYM’s in the last 8 years….

[Rawz]

We need a guru to post a graph of 5 (or 10) year revenue CAGR which shows FY21 outlier and forecast FY22 still ahead of the 5 year CAGR (2015-2020)

Maybe someone like W69 or Ferg has this readily available on a spreadsheet somewhere