FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[couta1]

Any share has the scope to fall to zero given any number of different circumstances just like your life could end on any given day under a number of different circumstances, it is what it is.

[Beagle]

Its about prudent risk management and using TA and FA to outperform the market, that's what it's all about on here.

Some people would be better off in several managed funds and ETF's, that much has become perfectly obvious to me over the years.

2022 is going to be a very tough year for a lot of stocks in my opinion. High PE stocks are very vulnerable to rising 10 year Govt stock rates undermining their value. 2022 has been all about capital preservation so far this year and I think its likely to remain that way for much of the rest of the year.

[winner69]

Oh dear ....all those assumptions I made are out big time ...sales / margins the lot

So the $28.34 DCF is history ......checked the assumptions on theprior one that came to $24.68.

That's shot to pieces as well

Well shareprice below the $24.68 now ….knew that valuation was a bit high.

But still working on the latest revision ……starting from lower base and growth assumptions that are in line with reality.

So not really interested in buying any at the moment.

[Beagle]

Well shareprice below the $24.68 now ….knew that valuation was a bit high.

But still working on the latest revision ……starting from lower base and growth assumptions that are in line with reality.

So not really interested in buying any at the moment.

RTM's long term share price graph says $20 is fair value and in line with the long term growth performance driving the share price along but things often undershoot to the downside, sometimes by quite a lot. I'm keeping my powder dry too.

[winner69]

All reports say FPH revenues down 13% and that’s what has spooked investors

Reality is second half sales down 25% …..huge ….wouldn’t want to see another half year like this would we.

[Baa_Baa]

All reports say FPH revenues down 13% and that’s what has spooked investors

Reality is second half sales down 25% …..huge ….wouldn’t want to see another half year like this would we.

Downgrades come in __________. This has a wicked bad chart, 200EMA about to cross down through 400EMA (people think 50/200 is bad). Over halfway through the Covid March 2020 panic selldown now. More than 400 trading days since the lofty high and 38% down. This has been going on for a long time now, initially leakage with strong support rebounds but lower highs, but lately that's well and truely over, with the steep down days on sizeable volume. There is no obvious technical support until the Covid low around $21, assuming it holds.

[winner69]

Jeez, not often BaaBaa says ‘wicked bad’

[alokdhir]

When all say bad for fundamentally good stock then must be good time to start buying .... As long as business model good and management quality top notch ...then it will come back in a big way .

This may not be time to FEAR .

But DYOR and listen to your own Masters ...

[couta1]

When all say bad for fundamentally good stock then must be good time to start buying .... As long as business model good and management quality top notch ...then it will come back in a big way .

This may not be time to FEAR .

But DYOR and listen to your own Masters ...

Macquarie say OUTPERFORM with a reduced TP of $29.87NZ, choose your poison, who do I believe more a heap of analysts with an avg TP of over $29 or the downramping non holders on here? Its a tough call but I'm running with the analysts on this one.

[Greekwatchdog]

And For Bars view..

F&P Healthcare's (FPH) FY22 downgrade marks the first genuine insight into what the transition to a post COVID world may look like,
and it's not a good start. We estimate that 2H22 EBIT will be down ~-50% versus 2H21 (off a high base) and below 2H20 which only
had a modest contribution from COVID-19 demand. Our proprietary revenue proxy also suggests that revenue has decelerated
meaningfully towards the end of 2H22 which adds further questions to what FY23 may look like. We think FY23 is likely to be the
'new base' but believe it could be challenging with significant negative operating leverage, as operating expenses continue to grow and
freight costs are expected to remain elevated while a rebound in revenue may take time to materialise. Looking beyond this,
we continue to see FPH as well positioned to deliver long-term revenue growth and see a return to its long-term margin targets.
Trading on ~46x 12m forward PE, which is a modest premium to peers on an absolute and relative basis, we retain NEUTRAL with a
reduced target price of NZ$25.05.
What's changed?
First time FY22 quantitative guidance provided
FPH provided FY22 revenue guidance of between NZ$1,675m and NZ$1,700m (we estimate implied hospital consumables revenue
of ~NZ$900m and hospital hardware of ~NZ$320m — both of which were below our and consensus expectations). Full year gross
margins are expected to be ~62.5%, with the deviation relative to its long term target (~65%) principally attributable to freight costs.
FPH retained full year SG&A costs guidance for ~+9% growth relative to FY21. Highlighting FPH's ongoing cost investment, we
estimate that 2H22 EBIT will be below 2H20 despite revenue being ~NZ$100m higher with 2H22 likely to be FPH's lowest second
half EBIT margin since 2014 (~25%), down from the elevated base of 38% in 2H21.
What does FY23 look like? Negative operating leverage likely a key feature
The revenue trajectory is the key unknown but we believe FY23 is likely to be the 'new base'. That said, the absolute base level and
subsequent use of its products was made no clearer. There is a wide range of outcomes but we expect it to be a multi-year period
before FPH fully utilises its materially increased base of hospital hardware. Despite this uncertainty we think the trajectory of the
cost base is relatively clear with limited variation irrespective of the revenue path. Consistent with history, we expect FPH to grow
operating expenses by ~+8–10% annually over the medium-term as it continues to invest for growth. While we consider this both a
value add and necessary strategy, it brings with it some short term risks to earnings. At this juncture, we assume downside risk to
FPH's long term EBIT margin target (~30%) and forecast a base of ~27% in FY23 with a gradual recovery over the medium-term.