FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[alokdhir]

You've always said downgrades come in 3's and to the best of my knowledge you've been right almost every time.

Will u consider last result announcement of HGH as downgrade ? As it came below market expectations same as revenue guidance of FPH came below market expectations but not below FPH guidance as they never gave any ...so I will not consider FPH revenue guidance as out of blue " Downgrade " ...it was very much expected after 80+ % overshoot of previous year .

Will I be expecting more bad news in the short term ...very possible till they get that bearing or new base year ...which as already predicted is 2023 ...

All analysts had these numbers forecasted long ago ...path to normalisation after big overshoot was spread over 2-3 years .All already on the horizon .

Yes SP reaction got exaggerated by current market situation of rates / inflation and war etc ...so it went 10-15% below expected lines ...otherwise 50 million less on 1750 consensus is hardly downgrade ...next year 1650 can surely become 1550 ...but 2022 eps consensus of 66 cents and of 2023 of 59 cents will hold or be exceeded most likely ....I will wait for results to see that ...missing earnings by 3-5 % is not that important for FPH in the longer term picture . Also they never guided anything so they are not downgrading anything ...just gave revenue guidance after knowing 11 months figures ...which due to Omicron's mildness resulted in less severe hospitalisations needing respiratory support ...which can change either way ahead but most likely it will keep resolving to become better so dependence on covid hospitalisations ahead will keep becoming less and less .

Original business which had revenues of 1.2 Billion in 2020 will take main stream as normalisation of revenues and earnings will happen . Forecasts and over deliverance will start ...hopefully from 2024 . I can wait till that ...will market keep SP depressed till that is a big question to which all know answer .

[Rawz]

Coming soon - time to buy to get decent long term returns ..... but why wait ......buy every week until you've got your fill

Chart is annual rate of share price appreciation over 2, 5 and 10 year periods

Past says made decent gains from FPH except buying when price has been ridiculously high (four times if you count 2020) when you've incurred losses

Reckon 18 bucks in May would be cool start point ...... but better buy now in case it doesn't go down that far

Winner69 and his graphs... amazing!! $18 wow. That would be too good to be true

[couta1]

Broken clocks are right twice a day or 730 times a year and broken clocks sound so much better than broken records. Lol

[Beagle]

Will u consider last result announcement of HGH as downgrade ? As it came below market expectations same as revenue guidance of FPH came below market expectations but not below FPH guidance as they never gave any .. .

HGH is on track to meet the profit guidance for FY22 it gave at the time of the FY21 result in August 2021. There was one erroneous media report that you are regurgitating. The fact is that HGH are also on track to meet analysts and their own forecast for FY22. $93-$96m, about 16 cps and that solid company which grows steadily every year is on a current year PE of less than 14 which marks it out as a classic GARP stock, (Growth at a reasonable price) and that's a very different kettle of fish to this priced by some broker analysis at 46 times next year's earnings.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

ASX gap down open onto yesterdays support and descending support line has me in for my next crack at an entry. Already risk free on it. Let's see if this daily bounce can get going today, or whether I get stopped out breakeven again.

We know a bounce is coming to set a daily lower high at some point, which could be 8% from the the lows and still be a bearish continuation pattern (bear flag). The magnitude of that bounce is why I'm very interested.

[alokdhir]

HGH is on track to meet the profit guidance for FY22 it gave at the time of the FY21 result in August 2021. There was one erroneous media report that you are regurgitating. The fact is that HGH are also on track to meet analysts and their own forecast for FY22. $93-$96m, about 16 cps and that solid company which grows steadily every year is on a current year PE of less than 14 which marks it out as a classic GARP stock, (Growth at a reasonable price) and that's a very different kettle of fish to this priced by some broker analysis at 46 times next year's earnings.

I know u are a very seasoned Sharetrader ...so u must be knowing to compare apples with apples ...FPH is in medical devices business and that industry has market given forward PE of about 45 ...why that industry has such high PE is another discussion ...so we need to compare FPH PE with its peers not any financial or banking sector peers mate .

HGH PE should be compared by ANZ etc where it belongs ...IMO

Not just one media report mate ....FORBAR latest update after results had its ie HGH target price as $ 1.84 ...

" Beagle won't agree with this but from Forbar ..... but then again it's Forbar after all

HGH has historically traded at an average -12% forward PE discount to its Australian banking peers, which we feel is appropriate given the considerable differences in scale, position in the market, competitive advantage and quality of assets. With HGH now trading at a material premium of +19% to these Australian banking peers, we reiterate our UNDERPERFORM rating. ​​​​​"

Also dont get me wrong ....I hold both though in different portfolios

[couta1]

I know u are a very seasoned Sharetrader ...so u must be knowing to compare apples with apples ...FPH is in medical devices business and that industry has market given forward PE of about 45 ...why that industry has such high PE is another discussion ...so we need to compare FPH PE with its peers not any financial or banking sector peers mate .

HGH PE should be compared by ANZ etc where it belongs ...IMO

Not just one media report mate ....FORBAR latest update after results had its ie HGH target price as $ 1.84 ...

Haha yeah they use whatever numbers suits their agendas which if your a non holder and heavily posting can only be boredom/downramping or mischief making, I cant be bothered commenting on stocks I don't hold excepting one like A2 which was such a big part of my life for many years. Focusing heavily on PE ratios alone is like watching your speedo as you drive down the road.

[Arbroath]

Will u consider last result announcement of HGH as downgrade ? As it came below market expectations same as revenue guidance of FPH came below market expectations but not below FPH guidance as they never gave any ...so I will not consider FPH revenue guidance as out of blue " Downgrade " ...it was very much expected after 80+ % overshoot of previous year .

Will I be expecting more bad news in the short term ...very possible till they get that bearing or new base year ...which as already predicted is 2023 ...

All analysts had these numbers forecasted long ago ...path to normalisation after big overshoot was spread over 2-3 years .All already on the horizon .

Yes SP reaction got exaggerated by current market situation of rates / inflation and war etc ...so it went 10-15% below expected lines ...otherwise 50 million less on 1750 consensus is hardly downgrade ...next year 1650 can surely become 1550 ...but 2022 eps consensus of 66 cents and of 2023 of 59 cents will hold or be exceeded most likely ....I will wait for results to see that ...missing earnings by 3-5 % is not that important for FPH in the longer term picture . Also they never guided anything so they are not downgrading anything ...just gave revenue guidance after knowing 11 months figures ...which due to Omicron's mildness resulted in less severe hospitalisations needing respiratory support ...which can change either way ahead but most likely it will keep resolving to become better so dependence on covid hospitalisations ahead will keep becoming less and less .

Original business which had revenues of 1.2 Billion in 2020 will take main stream as normalisation of revenues and earnings will happen . Forecasts and over deliverance will start ...hopefully from 2024 . I can wait till that ...will market keep SP depressed till that is a big question to which all know answer .

I think FPH is an excellent company but short-term the headwinds could be significant. Falling revenue for maybe 18 months as Covid fades should see more than one market disappointment and my guess (that is all it is) is that the share price gets under $20 at some point this year. That, for an investor, would be a good opportunity to own a great business on a 5-10 year time horizon. On my watchlist...

[Beagle]

I think FPH is an excellent company but short-term the headwinds could be significant. Falling revenue for maybe 18 months as Covid fades should see more than one market disappointment and my guess (that is all it is) is that the share price gets under $20 at some point this year. That, for an investor, would be a good opportunity to own a great business on a 5-10 year time horizon. On my watchlist...

Well said.

Alokdhir - You're the one that brought HGH up in this thread. I'm the one that said based on average broker forecasts FPH is trading on 41 times FY23 earnings.
Yes RESMED for example is even more expensive and yes its also in a confirmed downtrend.
My opinion of Forbar's analyst that covers HGH is on the record. According to their website they have 450 staff. You think they might have a different analyst that covers healthcare than financials'

With so many insto's holding these there could be a bit of end of quarter / year window dressing in the closing 15 minute price match period of trading on Thursday. That might be an opportunity for someone considering altering their portfolio weightings for the following quarter / financial year.

[alokdhir]

Well said.

Alokdhir - You're the one that brought HGH up in this thread. I'm the one that said based on average broker forecasts FPH is trading on 41 times FY23 earnings.
Yes RESMED for example is even more expensive and yes its also in a confirmed downtrend.
My opinion of Forbar's analyst that covers HGH is on the record. According to their website they have 450 staff. You think they might have a different analyst that covers healthcare than financials'

With so many insto's holding these there could be a bit of end of quarter / year window dressing in the closing 15 minute price match period of trading on Thursday. That might be an opportunity for someone considering altering their portfolio weightings for the following quarter / financial year.

I brought HGH to compare Forbar's disappointment with HGH results vs FPH revenue missing analyst's consensus as so called " Downgrade " by you ...I never compared PE of HGH with FPH ...that you stated in your post while referring to it as Growth at reasonable price and not pricey as 46 times forward FPH ....this is to just put the record straight ....nothing more ...