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  1. #2941
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Alokdhir has pointed out that there’s a good chance tomorrows Index rebalancing exercise will be very interesting ...may lead to some big movements in beaten down stocks

    Hopefully so ….FPH back over $21
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #2942
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Alokdhir has pointed out that there’s a good chance tomorrows Index rebalancing exercise will be very interesting ...may lead to some big movements in beaten down stocks

    Hopefully so ….FPH back over $21
    Maybe the reverse on the cards ...lol ...but last few days to get it cum 22.5 Cents dividend !!

  3. #2943
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    alokdhir - you still keeping on eye on the export data and running you FPH model?

    May data didn't look that good ..... maybe FPH exports down on pcp

    FPH share price back over 20 bucks ....that's a good sign
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2944
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    alokdhir - you still keeping on eye on the export data and running you FPH model?

    May data didn't look that good ..... maybe FPH exports down on pcp

    FPH share price back over 20 bucks ....that's a good sign
    Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...

    That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...

    Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations

  5. #2945
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...

    That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...

    Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations
    ..... paying top dollar for top dollar, hoping both the P/E and the margin is sustained indefinitely.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #2946
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    7
    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...

    That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...

    Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations
    Forbar still running their model

    Market close report mentioned this -


    With the healthcare exporter not issuing revenue guidance, Forsyth Barr has built a proxy model to try to estimate how revenue is tracking. “Trends are improving off February lows and it is early days in the financial year 2023, but the run-rate remains below current market expectations,” the analysts wrote.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    7

    Forbar still running their model

    Market close report mentioned this -


    With the healthcare exporter not issuing revenue guidance, Forsyth Barr has built a proxy model to try to estimate how revenue is tracking. “Trends are improving off February lows and it is early days in the financial year 2023, but the run-rate remains below current market expectations,” the analysts wrote.
    I am sure FPH will be in all Broker's Picks for next year ie 2023 ...Universal Choice like HGH this year ...but hopefully wont have HGH fate ...

  8. #2948
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    Good long term investments these companies with succession planning well sorted
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cather_Simpson
    https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...ph.nzx-394918/

  9. #2949
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41

    That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming

    Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH

    If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings

    Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading up
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #2950
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41

    That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming

    Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH

    If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings

    Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading up
    FPH is one of the 3 stocks which have gone above 30 day and 60 day SMA ...others maybe I dont track ...but many are still struggling below even 30 SMA

    Mr B's litmus test it passed ...but I am sure he and many more will still not be impressed as PE too high ...

    After yo yo of 10 year yields ...I think they will settle soon when market gets a good idea how high rates need go in this cycle ...its still trying to figure that out just like all of us ...I still think it will take something special to go beyond the highs already recorded ie 4.284 NZ and 3.52 of US 10 years

    More chance of eventually downside risk to them then upside at present ...but all have their own views

    Actionable views should be thought out and maybe acted upon for good rewards ...trading is much more difficult to predict then investing as trading has an element of luck also that your view is right in the short term !!

    Buying FPH below $ 20 will be a winning investment sooner then latter

    PS : NZD will boost revenues by 10% compared to 70 Cents ...that may be the biggest booster this year to overall analysts 1.5B revenue forecast ...but 10% is big ...1.65 B looks much better and they report in NZD so NPAT will get boost too . NZD trends will remain down till recession fears or reality around ...so maybe whole FY ...
    Resurgent Covid may help a bit too ...so imo there are genuine reasons to expect upside surprises ahead from where we reached
    Last edited by alokdhir; 09-07-2022 at 01:30 PM.

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