FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[mondograss]

I played around with some figures a few weeks ago.Expenditure in NZ and Mexico,increasing NZ $,very low dividend yield, and came up with a growth rate of under half the PE,so sold.Been a very long term holder.

Except that the NZ $ is unlikely to keep increasing, much of the selling that's going on is due to both the NZX and NZD being overvalued.

[Lewylewylewy]

The only thing I'm worried about is the legal costs in the ledger at the end of the year, and maybe the legal risks a bit too.

[malus]

I wouldn't call the PE a more reasonable level. I would just say it's lower... it's still 35 and there are a smorgasboard of good growth companies out there globally with a PE lower than 35.

Just because the market was prepared to pay high multiples for FPH in recent history does not mean it will continue to do so. This could drop a whole lot more and still look expensive.

Yes you have a point... and Percy has highlighted some of the potential down side that lead to him to selling at recent perceived past high share price... there is confidence within the Company that they can continue grow 25% year on year, so a PE of 25 may be a fair price?... but nothing is a given and NZX index has come off all time highs... FPH was one of a number that helped the overall index run up.

[iluab]

Add to the chart Friday's death cross, technically it just looks precipitous, and with a forward PE still at 34, I could see this easily pulling back to the $6 to $7 range over time. FPH.jpg

[Lewylewylewy]

Add to the chart Friday's death cross, technically it just looks precipitous, and with a forward PE still at 34, I could see this easily pulling back to the $6 to $7 range over time. FPH.jpg

Agree, unless they announce progress with the legal issues, which will send it soaring in the other direction.

[Baa_Baa]

Add to the chart Friday's death cross, technically it just looks precipitous, and with a forward PE still at 34, I could see this easily pulling back to the $6 to $7 range over time. FPH.jpg

Agree, the breakdown through the 200MA 17 Oct was profound and then again another breakdown Oct 26 through the two-year rising trend line (now resistance) signalling the end of the Apr'14 to-date uptrend. Unless it recovers, the range $7 - $7.75 support is in play (with some lesser supports in the 8 - 8.25 range).

[BlackPeter]

I see FPH seems to recover together with the other down beaten stocks. However - just wondering ... how much is a company with a big factory in Mexico (and exporting basically all production into the US) worth these days?

Trump promised to break ("re-negotiate") trade agreements and increase tariffs. On the other hand - a tanking Peso obviously makes production for FPH still cheaper.

How much damage will this do to FPH?

Not sure I would be tempted to buy back in quite yet ...

[babymonster]

still to early to say but seems the healthcare stocks in the us are rising...
overall high usd is good for FPH.

[Biscuit]

I see FPH seems to recover together with the other down beaten stocks. However - just wondering ... how much is a company with a big factory in Mexico (and exporting basically all production into the US) worth these days?

Trump promised to break ("re-negotiate") trade agreements and increase tariffs. On the other hand - a tanking Peso obviously makes production for FPH still cheaper.

How much damage will this do to FPH?

Not sure I would be tempted to buy back in quite yet ...

Personally, for the reasons you state, I'd be selling today if I still had any. Highly priced, trending down, uncertainty over patents, uncertainty over mexico/USA. Too much uncertainty for me although it may benefit from exchange rate changes between USA/NZ and USA/Mexico. Who knows.

[Zaphod]

IMO the FPH SP will be very sensitive to any proclamations that Trump makes regarding tariffs and the trade relationship with Mexico in general.

We are still many months away from any actual changes being made and even then, the senate and congress will most likely force a moderation of Trump's policies.

Despite FPH being one of my longest held stocks, I'm selling down.