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  1. #691
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    So what's the good news that's propelled FPH back up over $9? Talk of a free trade deal with Mexico? You-know-who going soft on trade?

    Disc: Bought a few more at $8.87 recently and was starting to regret it!

  2. #692
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    So what's the good news that's propelled FPH back up over $9? Talk of a free trade deal with Mexico? You-know-who going soft on trade?

    Disc: Bought a few more at $8.87 recently and was starting to regret it!

    FPH is never a bad investment ... in fact it's been my best investment overall in the past 3 years since I've worked at the company

  3. #693
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    Quote Originally Posted by hogiela View Post
    FPH is never a bad investment ... in fact it's been my best investment overall in the past 3 years since I've worked at the company
    Keep on hogging it ela

  4. #694
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    The Value Creators Report from Boston Consulting Group always a good read. Starts by looking at 44,000 companies to come up with the real value creators in the world.

    In the 2016 report FPH are the 9th ranked company in the Medical Technology sector with a 5 year TSR of 29% pa. Profit growth has driven 15% of this, dividends 6% and higher valuation multiple 8%.

    One of worlds great companies

    Well done Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

    (Resmed didn't make the list this time around)
    Last edited by winner69; 04-02-2017 at 07:51 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #695
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    Very pertinent info thanks w69. This shows why investment grade stocks(and there are not many) maintain the high PE's they do and that when a rare opp to top up comes; investors in these investment grade stocks ;with long track records, eagerly welcome the chance to add.
    Holding FPH and RMD.

  6. #696
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    Does anyone know why SP growth was largely flat prior to 2010 for FPH?

  7. #697
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Does anyone know why SP growth was largely flat prior to 2010 for FPH?
    earnings were pretty flat 2009/2013 and the market was relativitly flat as well

    So essentially not much to get excited about

    Have a lot at chart of FPH compared t0 NZ50 over that period and see if that helps explain things .......and since a pretty good PE expansion has boosted FPH share price.
    Last edited by winner69; 04-02-2017 at 02:51 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #698
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Does anyone know why SP growth was largely flat prior to 2010 for FPH?
    Another go at answering after updating my files

    The chart below is FPH share price over the years (monthly) and what the share price would have been if FPH traded at a PE of 30

    • FPH has never always been a 'growth' company. EPS in 2012 at 12.2 cents was about the same as in 2005 of 12.1 cents. Had down years in 2008 and 2009 and 2011 (memory says NZD to blame) but over the period 2005/2012 earnings didn't really grow. Follow the black line on the chart (which is share price would have been if FPH traded at 30 times earnings)
    • To answer your question you can see the share price sort of followed earnings - sort of flat. Interesting FPH's PE ranged between 19 in 2012 and over 40 in 2008 when earnings crashed.
    • It has only been since 2012/2013 that FPH has seen real earnings growth - from an eps 12.2 cents in 2012 25.6 cents in 2016 and forecast to be 29 cents in F17. So last few years earnings have grown at 20% pa. Question- how long can this continue.
    • Between 2005 / 2016 the average PE has been just under 30
    • If one assumes a PE is about right for FPH the current share price is about 'right'
    • The dotted line on the chart is actuals and analyst forecasts thru to 2019 and what the share price would be at a PE of 30
    • Remember PEs are a measure of sentiment and punters sentiment can quickly change

    Always an interesting way to look a stocks share price over time - you can see when FPH has been under valued and over valued (based on this PE assumption of 30). One of those investment guru's (Graham or somebody likes using such charts)

    lewy - you into FPH in a big way?

    There endth today's lesson - jeez the cricket is boring
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 05-02-2017 at 06:41 PM.
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  9. #699
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    It was Peter Lynch of Beating the Street fame that liked doing those charts i showed above.
    Last edited by winner69; 05-02-2017 at 11:38 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #700
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    Thanks W69.

    Not in a big way, I have a small holding. I have them categorised as a "long term growth" share, which for me means that they are one of the shares that I allow myself to gamble on, because if I lose out, I'm happy to hold until they eventually come around. What's happening with them right now and in the near future interests me. I'm hoping for trump to announce a tax to cause fear so I can get in big, but I'm trying to assess the true impact of what such a tax might do. FPH mentioned that if it goes to poo, they can produce out of NZ and still compete against competition manufacturing from Asia as they did in 2010 and prior. What intrigues me at the moment is that the 2010 and prior SP wasn't as exciting as it is now.

    So what's currently on my mind is:

    - Do they actually have proven history of competing in such an environment? (will the SP be rerated to a lower PE due to a lesser performance?)
    - What sort of tax will occur in terms of which countries are targetted? Trump mentioned Ghina and Mexico. Obviously Mexico would hit FPH hardest, but how would a tax on Ghina effect the currency value in other parts of Asia where the competition manufactures, and how will this effect the ability to compete from NZ?

    Essentially, how whomped could FPH get in various scenarios and what's the most likely scenario (time will tell)?

    I don't think a good whomping would take FPH out of my long term growth category, because I think they could recover in 2 years by changing the manufacturing location... But it all depends.
    Last edited by Lewylewylewy; 05-02-2017 at 05:18 PM.

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