FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Snow Leopard]

It was Peter Lynch of The Intelligent Investor fame that liked doing those charts i showed above.

The Intelligent Investor was Benjie Graham.

Peter Lynch is the Mad Butcher of Wall Street.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

FPH down 2% today on ASX today

Hmmm

[Beagle]

Another go at answering after updating my files

The chart below is FPH share price over the years (monthly) and what the share price would have been if FPH traded at a PE of 30

• FPH has never always been a 'growth' company. EPS in 2012 at 12.2 cents was about the same as in 2005 of 12.1 cents. Had down years in 2008 and 2009 and 2011 (memory says NZD to blame) but over the period 2005/2012 earnings didn't really grow. Follow the black line on the chart (which is share price would have been if FPH traded at 30 times earnings)
• To answer your question you can see the share price sort of followed earnings - sort of flat. Interesting FPH's PE ranged between 19 in 2012 and over 40 in 2008 when earnings crashed.
• It has only been since 2012/2013 that FPH has seen real earnings growth - from an eps 12.2 cents in 2012 25.6 cents in 2016 and forecast to be 29 cents in F17. So last few years earnings have grown at 20% pa. Question- how long can this continue.
• Between 2005 / 2016 the average PE has been just under 30
• If one assumes a PE is about right for FPH the current share price is about 'right'
• The dotted line on the chart is actuals and analyst forecasts thru to 2019 and what the share price would be at a PE of 30
• Remember PEs are a measure of sentiment and punters sentiment can quickly change

Always an interesting way to look a stocks share price over time - you can see when FPH has been under valued and over valued (based on this PE assumption of 30). One of those investment guru's (Graham or somebody likes using such charts)

lewy - you into FPH in a big way?

There endth today's lesson - jeez the cricket is boring

Good post mate. I struggle to see value even after the recent correction. PE of 30 given their long term track record of growth which is hardly stellar and foreseeable challenges ahead good value ?

Interesting that RYM arguably the preeminent blue chip growth story of the entire market trades at about a 5 PE discount (around 25 times underlying FY17 projected earnings).

[BlackPeter]

Interesting oscillation between MA100 (upper boundary) and MA30 (lower boundary). Wondering how this is going to end - break out upwards or the gap between the MA's opening again??

[percy]

Using the 100 day EMA and the 200 day EMA,I would say the chart does not look good,with the sp below both.!.
Share price $8.92
100 day EMA $8.96
200 day EMA $9.10.

[BlackPeter]

Using the 100 day EMA and the 200 day EMA,I would say the chart does not look good,with the sp below both.!.
Share price $8.92
100 day EMA $8.96
200 day EMA $9.10.

You are probably right. Would be good anyway, like to buy in cheaper than that.

[Joshuatree]

courtesy of 4traders

Estimates in M NZD
Fiscal Period March	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Sales	623	672	815	902	1 022	1 148
Operating income(EBITDA)	173	202	246	277	325	377
Operating profit (EBIT)	143	170	211	239	282	328
Pre-Tax Profit (EBT)	137	159	201	236	278	319
Net income	97,1	113	143	168	198	230
P/E ratio	-	-	-	30,6	25,9	22,3
EPS (cts NZD )	17,4	19,9	25,0	29,5	34,7	40,4
Dividend per Share(cts NZD )	12,4	13,8	16,7	19,8	24,2	29,2
Yield	-	-	-	2,20%	2,69%	3,24%
Reference price (cts NZD )				900	900	900
Announcement Date	05/23/2014 10:49am	05/29/2015 12:30am	05/27/2016 12:10pm	-	-	-

[percy]

Thanks JT.
We can see the market is prepared to pay a PE of 30.6 for eps growth of 18%, ie eps rising from 25cents ps to 29.5cents ps.
We can then see the then projected eps growth is between 16% pa and 17.6% pa.
The market is more generous than me.
I also note the market is prepared to pay a forward PE of over 40 for POT.Interesting?
I remain content buying shares where the PE is lower than the growth rate.It really works.!!

[44wishlists]

Hello share traders! New to the forum, and a modest holder of FPH. Not a particular good day for FPH dropping from day high of 920, and closed at 897.

[BlackPeter]

Hello share traders! New to the forum, and a modest holder of FPH. Not a particular good day for FPH dropping from day high of 920, and closed at 897.

Hi 44wishlists ... welcome to the forum. How would you like us to abbreviate your name - 44?

You are right re FPH SP drop today, though - it is since October 2016 below the MA200 - i.e. it is technically in an unbroken downtrend and behaves accordingly.

Personally I think the SP will continue to be volatile as long as the big disruptor (Trump - controlling FPH's largest target market) hangs around. As well - while it is a good company, it still does not look cheap (using the Grahams formula to assess) ... and the market might use the current uncertainty to move overpriced stock prices towards some more sensible pricing.

DYOR and - no, not holding myself. Might move in if & when it looks cheap.