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30-06-2017, 09:38 AM
#761
Originally Posted by hogiela
Hmmm
FPH getting to that level where I might consider selling some ... the stock currently makes up more than 40% of my portfolio and I bought at $4 ... decisions ...
Find a triple bagger somewhere else and your portfolio will be balanced...problem solved, you can thank me later.
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30-06-2017, 09:41 AM
#762
Originally Posted by hogiela
Hmmm
FPH getting to that level where I might consider selling some ... the stock currently makes up more than 40% of my portfolio and I bought at $4 ... decisions ...
Well, yes - the trajectory looks quite steep. If you look at it from a short term / trading perspective - you might not be the only one thinking about locking in some gains. If you look at it however from an investment perspective ... long term I think they are only at the start of an exciting growth phase.
However - 40% of your portfolio is a lot (not everybody is a couta , certainly more than I would feel comfortable with holding in just one stock; Couldn't blame you to use the current run to take some money of the table.
Discl: holding (and looking for an opportunity to buy some more);
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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30-06-2017, 10:16 AM
#763
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30-06-2017, 11:43 AM
#764
Ditto a while back ,regretfully now. A $6 bill mkt cap truly Global company in many international Funds and Index's portfolios. P E in the 40's. I don't know how to "value" it myself, re if its overvalued run to hard etc.
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30-06-2017, 12:01 PM
#765
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Ditto a while back ,regretfully now. A $6 bill mkt cap truly Global company in many international Funds and Index's portfolios. P E in the 40's. I don't know how to "value" it myself, re if its overvalued run to hard etc.
Actually - if you put their long term growth (around 10%) and their projected earnings (37 cts) into the Graham formula, than a number roughly 7.5% below the current market value pops out. But hey, this was the same situation when I first considered buying them (3 years ago or around $4 per share). At that stage I didn't buy because they looked too dear to me - and this turned out to be a quite expensive "not buying decision" .
They are clearly not cheap if you look at the fundamentals, but it might take a long time until they are "cheap", and if this really happens, we might not want them anymore.
In my view is the current price just reflecting the premium you have to pay for a top quality company with consistent growth and (in practical terms) unlimited growth potential ... however, this does not mean that the SP could not retract if the IP dispute turns sour or if Trump does again something particularly stupid ... it happened before.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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30-06-2017, 12:09 PM
#766
Member
I remember not buying when it was $3.60 and wishing I had.. only to repeat again at $4 and $4.50.. and so on and so forth. I think I finally gave up looking backwards and got on around $8. Waiting for a good dip doesn't seem to happen very often with FPH.
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30-06-2017, 01:52 PM
#767
It never hurts to lighten up when you find yourself overweight. I was in that situation with FPH in Oct 2013 so sold 30% which helped me to sleep better at night. For a while anyway. That was at $3.50. I still have the others, have been overweight again for a long time, but they are locked away in the safe and I've thrown away the key.
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30-06-2017, 03:00 PM
#768
I looked at these and calculated that based on the expectations, it would take a number of years before they returned dividends in line with what I wanted. I then worked out that I'd be better buying other stock, however I did buy in; upon factoring in that they will always be a premium, they are worth owning.
Therefore, I believe that as they approach a significant market segment, and the possibility for growth decreases, the premium will decrease and as the yield grows, there will be less value in holding for a long term holder. This, to me means that eventually you have to profit take with a stock like this. This, of course is many, many, many years away.
I'll be buying on the dips and holding long term, after advice from the secretary that risks are mitigated. I won't be buying willy-nilly just to get in - that's the way to have your money do nothing for a year.
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30-06-2017, 03:53 PM
#769
Originally Posted by Puriri Pete
It never hurts to lighten up when you find yourself overweight. I was in that situation with FPH in Oct 2013 so sold 30% which helped me to sleep better at night. For a while anyway. That was at $3.50. I still have the others, have been overweight again for a long time, but they are locked away in the safe and I've thrown away the key.
Nice one, Pete! Sleeping better at night is FPH's big strength!
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30-06-2017, 05:40 PM
#770
Originally Posted by Puriri Pete
It never hurts to lighten up when you find yourself overweight. I was in that situation with FPH in Oct 2013 so sold 30% which helped me to sleep better at night. For a while anyway. That was at $3.50. I still have the others, have been overweight again for a long time, but they are locked away in the safe and I've thrown away the key.
It depends what you do with the funds.I have not ended up in the "poor house," since selling out of AIA,FPH,MFT,POT or SCL,as I felt their growth rate was too low compared to their PE ratio.
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