FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[macduffy]

FWIW, I agree with percy, a P/E of 45 is, at the very least, flashing amber "caution" signals. But I'll stick with FPH while the trend continues - keep the winners and cull the losers!

[percy]

Metaphorically speaking I agree with you Brain.
BUT how often in hind sight,do investors let their emotion/fear cause them to sell something when,in hindsight it was the wrong time to sell.Look at Jim's returns.He looks to have a high conviction for FPH as a company even the the share price did not match his conviction for a long time.Would you be unhappy with the returns he has made?
In saying that FPH in my view is a share that in the long term will produce a higher return than the majority of shares.As Percy says,he has owned POT,AIA etc & he no longer holds.Why? because of their eps growth.So which blue chip NZ share would Percy buy given a choice of S&P NZX 10?

To get around hindsight I use foresight.
eps growth higher than PE, buy.
eps growth half PE, take care.
PE 3 times PE, sell.
Why did I sell POT.Today is the same as the time I sold .Projected.eps growth 10%.PE 36.46.
AIA eps growth 3.4%.PE22.44.
The NZX 10 is made up of ATM,FPH,RYM,CEN,AIA,FBU,SPK,MEL,ZEL,and XRO.I would not buy any of them,however I hold RYM [free ones] and MEL.MEL are my power supplier.I brought at issue,and hold in the hope the divies will pay my power bills.Don't feel so bad every time I switch on the power switch..

[kiora]

To get around hindsight I use foresight.
eps growth higher than PE, buy.
eps growth half PE, take care.
PE 3 times PE, sell.
Why did I sell POT.Today is the same as the time I sold .Projected.eps growth 10%.PE 36.46.
AIA eps growth 3.4%.PE22.44.
The NZX 10 is made up of ATM,FPH,RYM,CEN,AIA,FBU,SPK,MEL,ZEL,and XRO.I would not buy any of them,however I hold RYM [free ones] and MEL.MEL are my power supplier.I brought at issue,and hold in the hope the divies will pay my power bills.Don't feel so bad every time I switch on the power switch..

Ok I understand that.What does your foresight show long term ?
It seems like the SM is your hobby. That's great and a lot of us can learn a lot from your posts.
Looking ahead how long will any of us be around?10,15,20 yrs?
Who do we leave it all to and how knowledgeable will they be?
I don't know but I look at parking some of my investments I anticipate will grow over the long term with minimal need to keep a close eye on.

[percy]

Ok I understand that.What does your foresight show long term ?
It seems like the SM is your hobby. That's great and a lot of us can learn a lot from your posts.
Looking ahead how long will any of us be around?10,15,20 yrs?
Who do we leave it all to and how knowledgeable will they be?
I don't know but I look at parking some of my investments I anticipate will grow over the long term with minimal need to keep a close eye on.

To get some ideas go to advance search.In Key words ..Where to invest?.In user name put KW.I am sorry I have not updated it for some time.No one seemed to be interested.I hold very few NZ shares at present,but the ones I do hold I have rather large positions in HBL and TRA.More modest positions in HLG,MEL,RYM,SUM,OCA,and TIL.I sold half my THL,and may sell the balance this week to add to my ATL in Aussie.I hold two very aggressive [specs] in NZ,ALF and a very large position in PAZ on NZ Unlisted market.
In Aussie I hold AQZ,ATL,AZV,DN8,KKT,LOV,PGC,and a good number of smaller positions.

II

[Beagle]

In principle I broadly agree with Percy's viewpoint on this one BUT technically this looks very strong and simply working the 100 day MA over the last few years has given superb results so I can totally understand existing long term holders wanting to stay on board this train until the bend in the end of the trend. When that comes who can say for sure but it does look stretched on the current forward PE and growth rate.
Might pay to shorten up to a 30 day MA and consider reducing when it breaks down through that indicator.
100 day MA looks to be about $11.75 and 30 day MA about $12.70.
Disc: Don't own, always been an expensive stock and probably will be for quite some time but that doesn't automatically suggest market index outperformance from here going forward.

[Baa_Baa]

In principle I broadly agree with Percy's viewpoint on this one BUT technically this looks very strong and simply working the 100 day MA over the last few years has given superb results so I can totally understand existing long term holders wanting to stay on board this train until the bend in the end of the trend. When that comes who can say for sure but it does look stretched on the current forward PE and growth rate.
Might pay to shorten up to a 30 day MA and consider reducing when it breaks down through that indicator.
100 day MA looks to be about $11.75 and 30 day MA about $12.70.
Disc: Don't own, always been an expensive stock and probably will be for quite some time but that doesn't automatically suggest market index outperformance from here going forward.

That strategy seems plausible, but it does place the 'investors' in the position of 'traders' and therefore exposed to tax on gains (unrealised capital and earnings), which subtracted from actual earnings and capital appreciation, one wonders whether it's worth it, trying to game the share price?

Any which way this looks like a fully priced stock (over priced?), which is as vulnerable as many others are to even the slightest change in market sentiment.

[kiora]

Good discussion all and I think all valid strategies.
It is interesting though.what happens in November and beyond if FPH enters MSCI global index.The ownership trend will flow to overseas investors and how many NZ investors will ever own FPH again because it will forever be too expensive.
Maybe top of the list to buy on the next global crash

[RupertBear]

To get some ideas go to advance search.In Key words ..Where to invest?.In user name put KW.I am sorry I have not updated it for some time.No one seemed to be interested.I hold very few NZ shares at present,but the ones I do hold I have rather large positions in HBL and TRA.More modest positions in HLG,MEL,RYM,SUM,OCA,and TIL.I sold half my THL,and may sell the balance this week to add to my ATL in Aussie.I hold two very aggressive [specs] in NZ,ALF and a very large position in PAZ on NZ Unlisted market.
In Aussie I hold AQZ,ATL,AZV,DN8,KKT,LOV,PGC,and a good number of smaller positions.

II

I have been following ATL recenty after reading your posts Percy. I respect your well reasearched and reasoned approach. I am currently kicking myself for not buying in before the sp jumped up recently! Not sure whether to buy in now or wait for a wee dip in price plus the exchange rate isnt great at the moment, hmmm. Plus I sold out of FPH recently because I thought it was overvalued and due for a correction....which hasnt happened...yet....and I have to say I hate not having some in my portfolio! So although it is expensive I am hoping for a wee dip so I can buy some back!

[percy]

I have been following ATL recenty after reading your posts Percy. I respect your well reasearched and reasoned approach. I am currently kicking myself for not buying in before the sp jumped up recently! Not sure whether to buy in now or wait for a wee dip in price plus the exchange rate isnt great at the moment, hmmm. Plus I sold out of FPH recently because I thought it was overvalued and due for a correction....which hasnt happened...yet....and I have to say I hate not having some in my portfolio! So although it is expensive I am hoping for a wee dip so I can buy some back!

Yes I still think ATL are good buying.

[kiora]

This argument sounds reasonable 'When valuations are above-average, it means you should expect below-average returns. When they’re below-average, you should expect above-average returns'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres...133532569.html
Note: FPH isn't on the list
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldm...132400816.html