FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/FISHER-PAYK...apide&mots=FPH

Priced for perfection but didn't deliver it ?

FY19 PE of 36 and growing EPS at around 10% according to average analyst forecast.

Disc: Don't own and won't pay a PE over 30 for FY19 earnings unless I foresee really high sustainable growth.

[Joshuatree]

16/7/17

FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE	FY13A	FY14A	FY15A	FY16A	FY17A	FY18F	FY19F	FY20F
OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm	507.3	568.6	644.0	818.5	869.5	1010.0	1175.0	1300.0
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of product trading revenues	58.00%	54.90%	50.70%	44.90%	44.90%	46.00%	46.00%	46.00%
Corporate costs as a percentage of trading revenues	24.70%	24.90%	23.18%	25.30%	24.10%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%
OPERATING EBITDA GENERATED - NZDm	87.7	114.8	168.4	244.3	269.9	315.0	370.0	430.0
ADJUSTED NPAT	24.3	37.6	82.0	143.4	160.1	195.0	240.0	275.0
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE	4.28cps	6.62cps	14.45cps	25.27cps	28.22cps	34.37cps	42.29cps	48.46cps

Moderate forecast in my opinion and if the market continues with its appreciation towards FPH I could see the below playing out... Can't forecast sentiment.

FPH.NZX - 2016/2021	FY17F	FY18F	FY19F	FY20F
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE	28.22cps	34.37cps	42.29cps	48.46cps
SP AT 52WK FORWARD EARNINGS MEAN OF 35	$12.02	$14.80	$16.96	$18.60

Just little under your forecast hardt.
4traders consensus, the only change since dec 2017, 1 more analyst added with a buy; sentiment from the rest the same atp.
We have the same conversation each year about it being away overvalued.
Still holding FPH and RMD. The av age and weight of americans for one are looking to increase quite rapidly from here.

[emveha]

Now above 14...

[Joshuatree]

Yes and NZ$ a little stronger against the $US too ?. RMD also nearly A$14 and a new high.

[Joshuatree]

Pretty convincing surge 49c up to $14.40 and 1.8mill shares through,800,000 on the ASX.

[kiora]

Whats with the surge ?

[nzspeak]

Whats with the surge ?

Day by day, people getting fatter, old people getting older, poor countries getting richer. Someone mentioned earlier that it's a maturing business rather than a growth business- I'd bet that person doesn't work in healthcare. Obviously the 50cent gain yesterday wasn't due to demographics but what sort of revenue could FPH be putting up in 20 years? the sky is the limit.

[nzspeak]

It’s a shame FPH isn’t a trendy stock on sharetrader.co.nz, otherwise a lot of users would have made a lot of money. It’s essentially NZ largest external facing company now but it gets no love. Every time it’s mentioned some idiot calls it expensive.

“have halved my holding, while some analysts have now forecast a high target price (nearly $5), this stock has had a very good run, and reflects no downside risk for the currency. Was great buying @ $2.50, now its looking pretty expensive above $4. Trading on almost a 30 P/E” 14-02-2014, 10:08 AM Silverlight.

“Yes agree it is overpriced at this point in time. I've held FPH for 3yrs and it's been a great run up. I've reinvested dividends via DRP, but at these prices, I'm thinking of taking cash over DRP.
I would still like to hold this in case the USD ever comes back up again”


It’s so strange the only posters on the FPH thread continually say it’s overpriced, AND they’re owners! No wonder the thread is always dead. It’s one of the biggest growth stories in the history of the NZX and it’s almost a secret. You can read the whole FPH thread- it’s not very long because it’s one tale after another about how expensive it is. Started at $2.50 now it’s $14.50 took a whole of 5 years.

[Joshuatree]

Dead, dead, dead stay dead, I will give you my shares when you pry them from my cold dead hand
I have no posters on ignore and dont intend to.

[JayRiggs]

“Yes agree it is overpriced at this point in time. I've held FPH for 3yrs and it's been a great run up. I've reinvested dividends via DRP, but at these prices, I'm thinking of taking cash over DRP.
I would still like to hold this in case the USD ever comes back up again”

LOL - that's what I said back in 2014! I'm still holding, though I did sell a bit last year to diversify into other stocks.