FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Joshuatree]

This from The BULL weekly share tips (free)
This respiratory care products provider has been on a five year run, but has struggled technically around $13. The market has high growth expectations, with FPH recently trading on an estimated 2018 price/earnings multiple of 42 times. The risk is to the downside, as any slip up will be punished.

[RupertBear]

I am probably wrong and guilty of catching the falling knife but it looks like a good time to buy a wee few

[BlackPeter]

I am probably wrong and guilty of catching the falling knife but it looks like a good time to buy a wee few

Only time can tell - however MA100 and the magical 1300 might be a good enough reason for it to bounce. If you are concerned about the falling knife it might pay to set a narrow cut loss ...

Overall - FPH is expensive (though it always was), i.e. get some misstep from the company and the SP might be severely punished.

Discl: holding (S);

[Leftfield]

Nice result, increased divi too. Congrats to holders.

"Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today reported record net profit after tax of NZ$190.2 million for the year ended 31 March 2018, an increase of 12% over the previous year. Operating revenue was a record NZ$980.8 million, 10% above the prior year, with 87% of revenue from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories."

(Disc - always liked FPH but don't hold.)

[couta1]

Nice result, increased divi too. Congrats to holders.

"Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today reported record net profit after tax of NZ$190.2 million for the year ended 31 March 2018, an increase of 12% over the previous year. Operating revenue was a record NZ$980.8 million, 10% above the prior year, with 87% of revenue from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories."

(Disc - always liked FPH but don't hold.)

Market not that impressed and it will be on sale this Thursday.

[Leftfield]

Market not that impressed and it will be on sale this Thursday.

Mmmm TA not looking great either. Interesting to watch from afar.

[BlackPeter]

Nice result, increased divi too. Congrats to holders.

"Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today reported record net profit after tax of NZ$190.2 million for the year ended 31 March 2018, an increase of 12% over the previous year. Operating revenue was a record NZ$980.8 million, 10% above the prior year, with 87% of revenue from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories."

(Disc - always liked FPH but don't hold.)

Well, I guess there are various ways to read the results - and not all of them would come up with that much excitement. Lets try:

Revenue was 981 m, somewhat lower than analyst consensus (992 m);

Divvie increased, yes - but a payout ratio of 1.6% does not sound outrageous - doesn't it?

EPS- just had to check their current issue counter (given that they seem to issue new shares on a daily basis): 33.3 cents per share based on today's number of shares. Tomorrow it will be less ; Is this good for a company with a share price north of $13? That's a PE of nearly 40! And yes, they are growing (CAGR stays slightly above 10) - but still - how much is a share with 33.3 cent EPS and 10% CAGR really worth? Good old Graham says below $12 ... and he is typically the optimistic one.

So - yes, FPH is clearly a good solid company with likely a great future. However - they are clearly as well overpriced ... I think I will wait buying back in until the expected PE contraction took place .

[Joshuatree]

Yes,outlook for a flat revenue next year and a 10.5% increase in npat suggests a maturing business rather than a growth business which the P E and s/p are priced at.

[Joshuatree]

Ann: FY18 Full Year Investor Presentation

[hardt]

Things really picked up in the 2H of this FY, NPAT^20% (21% CC), new product timing etc.

Anything Healthcare related with Consistent, recurring revenues and an ever expanding addressable market is likely to maintain trading at above market ratios...

With revenues at FY19E 1.05bn^7% being around 3-4% below expectations, I don't believe the business is moving through maturation with 10% of revenues funnelled into R&D ( which I expect could grow ) and surgical applications/technologies being on the horizon for 2020 onwards there is plenty of sustainable growth remaining to warrant the current price, will continue to hold but not buying any more.

When R&D declines, then you will see this one maturing... FPH do have a great track record of good returns on R&D investments in new technologies... years and years of consistent 25%+ growth in new applications/tech.

Adding back litigation expenses you would have had ^8.77% NPAT growth over last year which warrants a pullback away from priced in expectations of double digits for the year.