FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[emveha]

Thank you for banning that guy.

[Beagle]

Another good result from this great NZ company. Should be in any longterm portfolio

I beg to differ and think others have raised legitimate valuation concerns. You never know though mate, in this crazy world of interest rates at 200 year lows a forward PE of over 50 just might prove to be pretty sticky. What if we get a cure for Covid 19 and interest rates start rising in due course though ? Will the forward PE of over 50 prove to be sticky then ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12344028

[iceman]

I beg to differ and think others have raised legitimate valuation concerns. You never know though mate, in this crazy world of interest rates at 200 year lows a forward PE of over 50 just might prove to be pretty sticky. What if we get a cure for Covid 19 and interest rates start rising in due course though ? Will the forward PE of over 50 prove to be sticky then ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12344028

Totally agree mate about it being very expensive right now and noted posters like yourself, peat and BP have made very vaiid valuation concerns that I agree with. You will note I did not say one should be buying it now. I said it should be a part of a long term portfolio. That is my belief and I hold it as such but the smallest NZ holding I have at only 3% of portfolio. Bought a long time ago and will be held for a long time to come yet, whatever interest rates and COVID do. Just like you and I are going to do with our PAZ shares :-)

[Snow Leopard]

note that in reality npat grew 23% not 37%

I make earnings about 50c per share. so thats a PE of about 64 for a growth of 23. Not a great PEG
eg Ebos makes a $1 per share and is only $21
FPH has half those earnings and costs 50% more at $33

good for holders I guess but crazy for investors

I am not sure where you get your 23% from?
$209M2 to $287M3 is a 37% increase and
36.5cps to 50.0cps is also a 37% increase.

That $147M of hedging reserve 'losses' had better not find it's way into the P&L !

I think I would rather have EBO than FPH, but currently hold neither.

[Panda-NZ-]

There are a lot of upper middle income people in the US and FPH has an established market there. It's dependant on the long term breathing issues but it's not an unrealistic idea there will be long term demand across most of the range of products.

The flu is bad enough but the flu plus covid at the same time will cause some respiratory complications that won't fix themselves or where they truly "recover". I think quite a few will pay anything to be more comfortable or extend life and use these machines and consumables innovatively in their own home.

[kiora]

Ok I understand that.What does your foresight show long term ?
It seems like the SM is your hobby. That's great and a lot of us can learn a lot from your posts.
Looking ahead how long will any of us be around?10,15,20 yrs?
Who do we leave it all to and how knowledgeable will they be?
I don't know but I look at parking some of my investments I anticipate will grow over the long term with minimal need to keep a close eye on.

Posted 22/10/17
And now nearly tripled in value since including dividends.Damn hard to hold on to these FPH shares!
So many negative posters and they are all have good reasons why they will never own FPH.
But would they sell if they owned them?
I'm looking forward to a minimum of 15% compounding return in the forceable future.Sometimes higher,sometimes lower.
FPH now 42% of my share portfolio.
Sell the loosers, keep the winners

[Biscuit]

Sell the losers, keep the winners

Which I agree is very true and sound advice, but very hard to do when your winners are up 1000% plus, and are on PE of more than 50!

[GR8DAY]

DIRECT showing a PE of over 70!??

[Mr Slothbear]

DIRECT showing a PE of over 70!??

as far as I know it hasn’t updated to reflect the new earnings yet but never the less I believe the P/E is still well in the 60’s and very over valued by my calculations.

Fantastic post Peat, you made a very good summation. When looking at the NPAT I would go with what the business has achieved and not the vagueries of currency fluctuations as these are likely to unwind and will over the long term balance out.

PEG of approx 3

[macduffy]

It's becoming harder to hold FPH as the SP breaches $35! A great company and all that and the wind is certainly in their sails at present but every time I see posters predicting an indefinite rosy future I'm reminded of a certain CEO of an Aust copper company and his constant cry of "stronger for longer" at the height of the mining boom a couple of decades ago. Like all such booms, it ended abruptly and the company concerned was forced to restructure in a much diminished way. I don't see this happening to FPH, which I hold, but I certainly wouldn't be adding any more at these prices.