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28-05-2018, 01:52 PM
#931
http://www.4-traders.com/FISHER-PAYK...apide&mots=FPH
Priced for perfection but didn't deliver it ?
FY19 PE of 36 and growing EPS at around 10% according to average analyst forecast.
Disc: Don't own and won't pay a PE over 30 for FY19 earnings unless I foresee really high sustainable growth.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-05-2018 at 01:54 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-05-2018, 02:22 PM
#932
16/7/17
Originally Posted by hardt
FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE |
FY13A |
FY14A |
FY15A |
FY16A |
FY17A |
FY18F |
FY19F |
FY20F |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm |
507.3 |
568.6 |
644.0 |
818.5 |
869.5 |
1010.0 |
1175.0 |
1300.0 |
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of product trading revenues |
58.00% |
54.90% |
50.70% |
44.90% |
44.90% |
46.00% |
46.00% |
46.00% |
Corporate costs as a percentage of trading revenues |
24.70% |
24.90% |
23.18% |
25.30% |
24.10% |
25.00% |
25.00% |
25.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OPERATING EBITDA GENERATED - NZDm |
87.7 |
114.8 |
168.4 |
244.3 |
269.9 |
315.0 |
370.0 |
430.0 |
ADJUSTED NPAT |
24.3 |
37.6 |
82.0 |
143.4 |
160.1 |
195.0 |
240.0 |
275.0 |
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE |
4.28cps |
6.62cps |
14.45cps |
25.27cps |
28.22cps |
34.37cps |
42.29cps |
48.46cps |
Moderate forecast in my opinion and if the market continues with its appreciation towards FPH I could see the below playing out... Can't forecast sentiment.
FPH.NZX - 2016/2021 |
FY17F |
FY18F |
FY19F |
FY20F |
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE |
28.22cps |
34.37cps |
42.29cps |
48.46cps |
SP AT 52WK FORWARD EARNINGS MEAN OF 35 |
$12.02 |
$14.80 |
$16.96 |
$18.60 |
Just little under your forecast hardt.
4traders consensus, the only change since dec 2017, 1 more analyst added with a buy; sentiment from the rest the same atp.
We have the same conversation each year about it being away overvalued.
Still holding FPH and RMD. The av age and weight of americans for one are looking to increase quite rapidly from here.
Last edited by Joshuatree; 28-05-2018 at 06:43 PM.
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06-06-2018, 12:24 PM
#933
Member
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06-06-2018, 12:46 PM
#934
Yes and NZ$ a little stronger against the $US too ?. RMD also nearly A$14 and a new high.
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06-06-2018, 06:46 PM
#935
Pretty convincing surge 49c up to $14.40 and 1.8mill shares through,800,000 on the ASX.
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07-06-2018, 09:19 PM
#936
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08-06-2018, 03:30 PM
#937
Member
Originally Posted by kiora
Whats with the surge ?
Day by day, people getting fatter, old people getting older, poor countries getting richer. Someone mentioned earlier that it's a maturing business rather than a growth business- I'd bet that person doesn't work in healthcare. Obviously the 50cent gain yesterday wasn't due to demographics but what sort of revenue could FPH be putting up in 20 years? the sky is the limit.
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08-06-2018, 04:00 PM
#938
Member
It’s a shame FPH isn’t a trendy stock on sharetrader.co.nz, otherwise a lot of users would have made a lot of money. It’s essentially NZ largest external facing company now but it gets no love. Every time it’s mentioned some idiot calls it expensive.
“have halved my holding, while some analysts have now forecast a high target price (nearly $5), this stock has had a very good run, and reflects no downside risk for the currency. Was great buying @ $2.50, now its looking pretty expensive above $4. Trading on almost a 30 P/E” 14-02-2014, 10:08 AM Silverlight.
“Yes agree it is overpriced at this point in time. I've held FPH for 3yrs and it's been a great run up. I've reinvested dividends via DRP, but at these prices, I'm thinking of taking cash over DRP.
I would still like to hold this in case the USD ever comes back up again”
It’s so strange the only posters on the FPH thread continually say it’s overpriced, AND they’re owners! No wonder the thread is always dead. It’s one of the biggest growth stories in the history of the NZX and it’s almost a secret. You can read the whole FPH thread- it’s not very long because it’s one tale after another about how expensive it is. Started at $2.50 now it’s $14.50 took a whole of 5 years.
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08-06-2018, 04:08 PM
#939
Dead, dead, dead stay dead, I will give you my shares when you pry them from my cold dead hand
I have no posters on ignore and dont intend to.
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08-06-2018, 04:11 PM
#940
Originally Posted by nzspeak
“Yes agree it is overpriced at this point in time. I've held FPH for 3yrs and it's been a great run up. I've reinvested dividends via DRP, but at these prices, I'm thinking of taking cash over DRP.
I would still like to hold this in case the USD ever comes back up again”
LOL - that's what I said back in 2014! I'm still holding, though I did sell a bit last year to diversify into other stocks.
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