FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[kiora]

Life not love??

[percy]

Life not love??

41.76 times earnings = lust.!

[kiora]

Some serious OE fund money with a lot of lust then?
Or funds with a short term view being replaced by funds with a longer term view?
Drivers of future PE
Interest rates staying lower for longer
Litigation outcomes. Resmed not refiled & outcome shortly
Exchange rates
Company performance & expansion
Resmed growth 4 %,market growth 8-10%
Labour affect on R & D policies & exchange rates

What have I missed?

[percy]

,and

Some serious OE fund money with a lot of lust then?
Or funds with a short term view being replaced by funds with a longer term view?
Drivers of future PE
Interest rates staying lower for longer
Litigation outcomes. Resmed not refiled & outcome shortly
Exchange rates
Company performance & expansion
Resmed growth 4 %,market growth 8-10%
Labour affect on R & D policies & exchange rates

What have I missed?

The 1.56% dividend yield,and the fact FPH's PE is now nearer 3 times its growth rate, than 2 times..

[BlackPeter]

,and

The 1.56% dividend yield,and the fact FPH's PE is now nearer 3 times its growth rate, than 2 times..

Correct - FPH looks dear, but it always did. In my books it is in with a forward PE of 34, a backward PE of 70 (shocking) and a CAGR (slightly below) 10. Even if I apply the original Graham formula, this stock looks dear.

Just compared them to one of the truly international health care stocks: Fresenius (German healthcare giant specialising in dialysis equipment and everything related and 25 times larger than FPH) sells currently for a forward PE of 19, a backward PE of 29 and they have a CAGR above 10. Maybe I should shift some more money to Germany ... ;

On the other hand - nobody makes money by telling the markets that they are stupid. Do hold some FPH (as well as some FRE (DE) and keep monitoring the uptrend ...

[percy]

Thanks for your post BP.
Over the years we all develope our own style of investing.
I have known people who have done very well investing in only booze shares,others only property shares,while others just like shares that are doing well such as FPH,POT,MFT and AIA,without looking at underlying business ratios.Others rely on charts.So no real "silver bullet" to investing.
I try to have a disciplined approach to my major holdings.
1] Must be a growth sector with strong tail winds,such as retirement,health,tourism ,finance.
2] Must have management who talk simply,and do as they say.
3] Must have a strong balance sheet with very positve cash flow.Business must be profitable.
4] Must be paying a dividend,and have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
5] EPS growth should be about the same or higher than the company's PE ratio.
......[ a ] Should the growth rate be a lot higher than the PE buy more.
......[ b ] Should the growth rate be a lot lower than the PE take care.
......[ c ] Should the PE ratio be twice the growth rate take extreme care.
......[ d ] Should the PE ratio be over twice the growth rate.sell.
This disciplined approach has both made me a lot of money,and saved me losing money.
I will stick with it.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for your post BP.
Over the years we all develope our own style of investing.
I have known people who have done very well investing in only booze shares,others only property shares,while others just like shares that are doing well such as FPH,POT,MFT and AIA,without looking at underlying business ratios.Others rely on charts.So no real "silver bullet" to investing.
I try to have a disciplined approach to my major holdings.
1] Must be a growth sector with strong tail winds,such as retirement,health,tourism ,finance.
2] Must have management who talk simply,and do as they say.
3] Must have a strong balance sheet with very positve cash flow.Business must be profitable.
4] Must be paying a dividend,and have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
5] EPS growth should be about the same or higher than the company's PE ratio.
......[ a ] Should the growth rate be a lot higher than the PE buy more.
......[ b ] Should the growth rate be a lot lower than the PE take care.
......[ c ] Should the PE ratio be twice the growth rate take extreme care.
......[ d ] Should the PE ratio be over twice the growth rate.sell.
This disciplined approach has both made me a lot of money,and saved me losing money.
I will stick with it.

Percy, these are good principles, and actually my strategy is not that different. I just noticed at a recent review of my investment results that I could have done much better by allowing the gains to run instead of selling an upwards trending stock based on fundamental views. FPH is one of these stocks I kept as a result of this review despite it now looking a bit too dear - and so far I can't complain about the outcome.

I see as well the risks in this case as limited - my buy in price is below what I would consider as fair value.

Anyway - you are right, there are many ways to skin a cat ... and I don't think there is a best investment approach either. There are just some approaches which are good enough - and many which are not. I think so far we both seem to be well positioned - despite the odd drawback

[percy]

Percy, these are good principles, and actually my strategy is not that different. I just noticed at a recent review of my investment results that I could have done much better by allowing the gains to run instead of selling an upwards trending stock based on fundamental views. FPH is one of these stocks I kept as a result of this review despite it now looking a bit too dear - and so far I can't complain about the outcome.

I see as well the risks in this case as limited - my buy in price is below what I would consider as fair value.

Anyway - you are right, there are many ways to skin a cat ... and I don't think there is a best investment approach either. There are just some approaches which are good enough - and many which are not. I think so far we both seem to be well positioned - despite the odd drawback

Yes it is always very difficult selling a stock that is in a strong uptrend.And yes the uptrend keeps going up.In FTH's case I sold when they were over $10 before they dropped to nearly $8,then rising up to over $12.So I have missed 20% growth with them,but have more than made that up with the funds elsewhere.
If you recycle funds into a stock where the eps growth rate is higher than its PE ratio, your portfolio should keep out performing.

[moka]

Thanks for your post BP.
Over the years we all develope our own style of investing.
I have known people who have done very well investing in only booze shares,others only property shares,while others just like shares that are doing well such as FPH,POT,MFT and AIA,without looking at underlying business ratios.Others rely on charts.So no real "silver bullet" to investing.
I try to have a disciplined approach to my major holdings.
1] Must be a growth sector with strong tail winds,such as retirement,health,tourism ,finance.
2] Must have management who talk simply,and do as they say.
3] Must have a strong balance sheet with very positve cash flow.Business must be profitable.
4] Must be paying a dividend,and have the capacity to pay increasing dividends.
5] EPS growth should be about the same or higher than the company's PE ratio.
......[ a ] Should the growth rate be a lot higher than the PE buy more.
......[ b ] Should the growth rate be a lot lower than the PE take care.
......[ c ] Should the PE ratio be twice the growth rate take extreme care.
......[ d ] Should the PE ratio be over twice the growth rate.sell.
This disciplined approach has both made me a lot of money,and saved me losing money.
I will stick with it.

Thanks for your post Percy and for "sharing" your investing style (business plan) with other posters and readers on Sharetrader.

I'm reading Van Tharp's book Super Trader at the moment and he says that to be successful you need a business plan with objectives and methodology for your trading/investing.

1. What is your mission statement? What's the real motivation behind your trading?
2. What are your goals and objectives?
3. What are your trading and market beliefs. You cannot trade the market. You can only trade your beliefs about the market. As a result, it's a good idea to identify those beliefs.

The business plan has to suit your personality eg short term trader, long term investor, and level of risk. In other words explore and discover what works for you. And we are all different so there is no one right way to invest or trade.

[kiora]

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