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  1. #1201
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    Long term they have manufacturing capacity & only touching 10-15 % of their potential market.
    Covid is helping not just short term COVID related sales but long term for clinicians to realize the benefits on patient recovery for other conditions as well.
    https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/...ation/nivairo/
    https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/...tory/optiflow/
    https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/...ical-outcomes/
    https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
    Last edited by kiora; 22-11-2020 at 12:12 AM.

  2. #1202
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    [QUOTE=kiora;858203]Long term they have manufacturing capacity & only touching 10-15 % of their potential market.
    Covid is helping not just short term COVID related sales but long term for clinicians to realize the benefits on patient recovery for other conditions as well.
    https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/...ation/nivairo/
    https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/...tory/optiflow/
    https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/...ical-outcomes/
    https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/[/QUOTE

    Its been on the UNDERPERFORM list of many brokerages for very long still it keeps performing alright . Its expensive multiples make many think its not a buy . Still buying keeps happening !!

    What can be the main reasons for that ? ETF or Passive NZ index holders need have 16.15 % of FPH and there are lots of investments in those kind of funds !

    Covid benefactor FPH did very well in last 9 months ...so what next ...give back part gains or move sideways for long till further non covid growth catches up ?

    Covid has pushed its NP and revenue ahead by at least 18 months so next 18 months further growth not easy to come ...maybe the reason all have underperform rating on this stock ?

    FPH future can be little difficult to judge in the next 12-24 months ....maximum a Hold

  3. #1203
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    alokdhir
    Did you check the link to the marketscreener forecasts?
    Sales etc expected to level off 2022 then start rising again

  4. #1204
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    I've been invested in FPH for about 10 years, I think. I can not think of a time during that decade when most people have not thought it was overpriced. I originally bought in at around $4.25 and people were saying it was overpriced back then and I thought so too on all the metrics I normally use. I've given up on this one and now just say it should be an essential part of any long term portfolio on the NZX. I only say that about FPH and MFT.

  5. #1205
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    alokdhir
    Did you check the link to the marketscreener forecasts?
    Sales etc expected to level off 2022 then start rising again
    Yes I checked all forecasts and also consensus targets also . Thats why the question that for next 12 months it will move side ways or further down . I did a most likely scenario that it can drop further 10 % ie maximum downside to $ 30 and upside of $ 40 in the next 12 months . That makes it a Hold for me maximum .

  6. #1206
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I've been invested in FPH for about 10 years, I think. I can not think of a time during that decade when most people have not thought it was overpriced. I originally bought in at around $4.25 and people were saying it was overpriced back then and I thought so too on all the metrics I normally use. I've given up on this one and now just say it should be an essential part of any long term portfolio on the NZX. I only say that about FPH and MFT.
    I fully agree with u ...as its 16.5 % of the index ...so that makes it the most important part of the NZ market . Cant evaluate it on regular parameters . Buy and hold and forget . Just like property in nz ...lol

  7. #1207
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    FPH is one of only two stocks in NZ that I've never had to worry about. First bought in 2008 and have sold parcels over the years just because the position got too big.

  8. #1208
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJMLimited View Post
    FPH is one of only two stocks in NZ that I've never had to worry about. First bought in 2008 and have sold parcels over the years just because the position got too big.
    All have good stories of this stock . All know its most rewarding too . All agree its super expensive compared to others . Maybe its the best thats why its most expensive too . Pay extra for quality .

    I am really looking forward to what they will say about future at HY results on Wednesday . As they are always conservative in future assessment and almost always exceed their guidance by a small margin even after upgrading it little before the results . Market respects their guidance . So it will shed some very welcome light on their immediate future prospects

    If they need to further increase FY prospects that will be great . Which is the most likely case IMHO

    Vaccine news have come as a short term blow to its SP , maybe actual results and future guidance will reverse that pessimism ?

  9. #1209
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    Wowza...... great result. See here.

    Net Profit up 86%

    Well done holders!!

  10. #1210
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    Wasn't expecting it to be that big! Should be a great day between this and turners!

  11. #1211
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azza View Post
    Wasn't expecting it to be that big! Should be a great day between this and turners!
    It'll be interesting to how market reacts to this result as a lot of it has already been baked into sp over past few months.

  12. #1212
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    Wow that is staggering, surely no one expected that much. For an already large mature company to increase net profit by 86% must be some kind of record.
    And think of all those ongoing consumables which will be needed now.
    Healthcare is definitely one of if not the fastest growing business in the world today.

  13. #1213
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    Agree that the recurring revenue from consumables will be significant
    Have added a lot more in last few weeks of weakness - happy to sit on them well into the future - unless i need a new boat

  14. #1214
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    That's pretty close alokdhir

  15. #1215
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    Far exceeds my wildest expectations. What a great company this is.
    Last edited by iceman; 25-11-2020 at 02:11 PM.

  16. #1216
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    [QUOTE=alokdhir;857031]FPH results forecast challenge ...

    My estimates ...900 mil revenue / 215 mil NP

    Updated Guidance 1.8 Bil sales with 425-440 mil NP

    Posted on 16th Nov ...

    Turned out to be pretty accurate estimates or guess what ever people happy to call

    Now SP not yet following the most wonderful results ever seen in NZ of this scale ...means from a big company !

    Vaccine has spoiled its sentiment . But FPH next results will show it was too early to think FPH story over

  17. #1217
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    That's pretty close alokdhir
    Thanks buddy

  18. #1218
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    FPH was very conservative with their FY upgrade .

    They already did 910 / 225 and data shows their sales increased 25 % from last qtr ie Sept qtr was 25 % more then June qtr of 2020 ...means its still going up and not down or side ways ..

    IMHO they will end up around 1.95 billion / 465 mil for FY 21 ....Keeping in view world Covid situation is worst at the moment then otherwise ( sadly )

    Long term benefits to company are immense ....many new doctors exposed to their equipment and its benefits ...also their equipment being used as standard care protocol for all Covid related hospitalisations .

    Repeat orders and reusables orders and great positive publicity ...this should change the future trajectory of the company from 20% growth to much more in the years to come

    If all goes as per plan ...FPH maybe the Apple of NZ in next 5 years

  19. #1219
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    It struggled to perform for years with the high NZD (70c plus) and when the NZD weakened the share price took off (coupled with the premium for supplying innovative health products). The NZD is now back above 70c, but the premium valuation is still there. I'm thinking therefore a flat period for the share price unless the NZD falls back below 70c and stays there.

  20. #1220
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    Good point. FWIW in Craigs latest big quarterly report out one stock featured above all their reccos,FPH, quite a write up.

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