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Thread: Fph

  1. #1
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    Default Fph

    Hi I see that this Fisher stock is way down south, time to accumulate some ???

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    I think the reason why the FPH share price has dropped Jim is the weak USD and weak outlook for the USD, given that FPH exports 99% of its products. See the other FPH thread (entitled "FPH.....TA and FA meet") for some discussion around this.

    Time to buy? If you're certain that the NZD/USD will be closer to 70c than 80c in a years time, then now would be a good time to accumulate. I wouldn't have a clue where the NZD/USD will be in a years time and prefer to wait until the currency tracks down.
    Last edited by Catalyst; 30-08-2011 at 10:06 PM.

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    Reviewing my portfolio and trying to come up with a reason not to dump this stock. Anyone got some opinions thoughts ? thanks in advance

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Reviewing my portfolio and trying to come up with a reason not to dump this stock. Anyone got some opinions thoughts ? thanks in advance
    Good products in growing health sector.

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    Hi percy,yes i like the health sector too .Im happy with Ryman and my recent buy of CAJ@ 4c but FPH has been promising for a while and languishing .Exchange rate can't be the only reason for underperforming and i don't see exchange rate changing back any time soon. Profit result 25th may.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Hi percy,yes i like the health sector too .Im happy with Ryman and my recent buy of CAJ@ 4c but FPH has been promising for a while and languishing .Exchange rate can't be the only reason for underperforming and i don't see exchange rate changing back any time soon. Profit result 25th may.
    CAJ at 4c.!!!!!!! Mine cost me 5c,plus the cost of the options.!!!!!!!
    I would wait for the result,however I think they are achieving excellent growth,and the big spend on research should result in new and better products.I also believe a lot of drugs are better delivered via the lungs,so see further opportunities there.
    I also believe if you have a good product,the market accepts ,you will find ways to get your production costs in order.May be they end up with research only in NZ and manufacturing done in countries closer to their markets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Good products in growing health sector.
    That might be - and I hear that statement often quoted amongst peers - but FPH sstock has been a lacklustre performer, for many years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaphod View Post
    That might be - and I hear that statement often quoted amongst peers - but FPH sstock has been a lacklustre performer, for many years.
    The SP has been a lacklustre performer for awhile now.In the meantime the company has grown sales,introduced new products and performed very well.The NZ$ has worked against them.At the present time the charts say the company's SP is poised.I think up,but could be down?,therfore poised.!!!! My own view is it has bottomed, and with a good result we will see the SP move upwards quickly.SP has moved or about to move above the 200 day moving average.
    So I stand by my statement,"good products in growing health sector."
    Last edited by percy; 11-05-2012 at 01:22 PM.

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    I'm only using the directbroking chart which has a 180 MA and it's broken that about 5 times in the last 3 years only to go onto drop. On that note how accurate are the DB charts? They're often at variance to ASB charts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by slimwin View Post
    I'm only using the directbroking chart which has a 180 MA and it's broken that about 5 times in the last 3 years only to go onto drop. On that note how accurate are the DB charts? They're often at variance to ASB charts.
    The Yahoo charts have 200 day MA but appear to be a few days old,while stocknessmonster chart has 180 day MA,so that is why my post had poised.What we need to confirm a change of trend is for the SP to stay above the 200day MA and for that MA to move up.
    Hopefully Hoop my post us a good chart and commentary.I would not be buying or selling until the result was out.
    I continue to hold in the meantime.
    Last edited by percy; 11-05-2012 at 03:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapiti View Post
    What a steller result, a well managed company making good progress in difficult time's
    Yes, a cracker result and I was very pleased at the positive outlook,with new products yet to come on stream .

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    I thought result looked as expected. Company makes good sales progress, but still looks relatively expensive.

    Perhaps if there was a serious prospect of the NZD returning towards 0.60 against the USD in the short-medium term, I would find the report more riveting reading.

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    NZX showing a 7.07% div yield is that right? Next years profit and ebitda estuary(estimate) similar. Suppose(he says gloomily) it could be a defensive place to twiddle.Mkt expecting more maybe,s/p down a tad.
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 25-05-2012 at 11:19 AM. Reason: sp

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    JT - The gross yield of FPH = 12.4c FY dividend / 230c current price / 0.72 = 7.4%

    PE = $2.30 / ($64.1m/530.1m shares) = 19.0x
    EV/EBITDA = ($2.30 x 530.1m + $109m net debt) / $115.4m EBTIDA = 11.5x

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    Dividend yield is a bit deceptive as not currently covered out of cash-flow, so relies on DRP uptake (dilution) and, perhaps to a small degree, on borrowing to maintain. But it is probably supporting the share price.

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    Thanks catalyst. The smell of freshly ground coffee coming your way.

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    a ratio I find handy is PEG .Add divie to it makes more sense too.
    PE 19,growth 23%, divie 7.4., so 19/30.7[23+7.4] =6.18 which is very modest,so good value at present.

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    Thanks Percy ,sending you alphabet soup (with additional star signs and trig symbols) pssst i have analysis allergy.

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    Percy - that's a bit cheeky using the growth rate from the "constant currency" calculations and the NPAT from the actuals... best-of-all-worlds analysis :P

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Percy - that's a bit cheeky using the growth rate from the "constant currency" calculations and the NPAT from the actuals... best-of-all-worlds analysis :P
    Sorry if mixing up figures.I used catalyst's figures then went to the company's announcement to get growth figures."constant currency" would be the constant figure an analysis would use to get a true figure?

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