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Thread: Fph

  1. #21
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks Percy ,sending you alphabet soup (with additional star signs and trig symbols) pssst i have analysis allergy.
    Look forward to receiving it.....lol.

    Lets try PE divided by [growth plus dividend].

    Don't worry working it out as I think Lizard will supply us with the constant correct figure.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by David B View Post
    I see the market has taken it well. Down 6.58% at the moment! Go figure.
    As you may appreciate I am having enough trouble trying to "figure" the company's figures ,so will have to leave the market for you to "go
    figure."

  3. #23
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    Percy, Constant currency figures give a PE of about 26, so PEG is greater than 1 - although your method includes the divs (which I don't entirely approve of, given they are not being paid out of excess cash).

    On an actual result level, there is barely any growth at bottom line, so PEG no help at all.

    While the constant currency result might look better, it is really difficult to conclude where a "constant-currency" could be pegged while we are seeing longer-term structural changes and/or longer cyclical moves in forex that cannot be easily smoothed. Once the dust settles in another 6-12 months, FPH is one I might be taking a closer look at.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by David B View Post
    I see the market has taken it well. Down 6.58% at the moment! Go figure.
    Been a s/p run ,up to profit announcement with expectations exceeding facts, happens a lot, buy on rumor sell on the fact type exuberance. And outlook for next years ebitda and profit is flat. So we are back to banking on the exchange rate dropping AGAIN thats no way to invest.Its like being gifted the popcorn that didn't pop.

  5. #25
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    So we are back to banking on the exchange rate dropping AGAIN .
    Many commentators reckon that long term the NZD will be stronger for longer - like BNZ's Tony Alexander said yesterday in one of 10 projections for the future "The NZD will be (already is) structurally higher against the US, British and European currencies thus curtailing returns from those regions for exporters...."

    We should be proud to have a strong currency .... means a strong economy

  6. #26
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    FPH down over 15% in last six trading days ($2.45 to $2.07 currently).
    Cum a 7cps divi (record date 22 June).
    NZDUSD hovering near six months lows at 75c.
    FPH has always found support around $2.10 - $2.12 over the last five years (will it hold by days end?).
    At mid-point of FY13 NPAT guidance range ($62m - $70m), FPH currently trading on PE of 16.4x, EV/EBITDA of 9.7x and gross yield of 8.3%.

    Disc - took a punt this morning.

  7. #27
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    Surely this must be an irrational selloff? The company is still growing revenues at a healthy rate (though net profits ain't moving much) and dividend looks sustainable. Share price at 8yr low, maybe long term investors are just giving up.
    Don't see the 2.10-2.12 support holding after it goes ex-dividend in 3 weeks!

    Maybe after US elections, the world will be happier again, boost the US dollar and FPH will regain it's former glory :-)

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    .....We should be proud to have a strong currency .... means a strong economy
    Couldn't agree more !!

  9. #29
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    Managed to get out this morning without any damage. Not a good sign that the previously strong $2.10 - $2.12 support area has been broken. I don't think the fundamentals look too bad under $2.10 but the market doesn't think so at the moment. Might wait until the dust settles a bit...

  10. #30
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    Has it settled enough for you?...I got in at 1.95 today. Buyers are starting to look a bit sparse so may have a way to drop yet however.
    Quote Originally Posted by Catalyst View Post
    Managed to get out this morning without any damage. Not a good sign that the previously strong $2.10 - $2.12 support area has been broken. I don't think the fundamentals look too bad under $2.10 but the market doesn't think so at the moment. Might wait until the dust settles a bit...

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Catalyst View Post
    Managed to get out this morning without any damage. Not a good sign that the previously strong $2.10 - $2.12 support area has been broken. I don't think the fundamentals look too bad under $2.10 but the market doesn't think so at the moment. Might wait until the dust settles a bit...
    Yes that is a significant strong support that broke. It would scare me out as well

    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    Has it settled enough for you?...I got in at 1.95 today. Buyers are starting to look a bit sparse so may have a way to drop yet however.
    Brought in ..huh?? Hmmm

    The good news BB is that using TA with default indicators is useless its a big TA FAI (e.g see chart below)....The FA crowd will be cheering about that..eh.

    Even the chart trendies can't even draw an reliable trendline (too many false breaks), there seems to be no clear pattern formations...even worse one can't seem to draw any meaningful S&R lines either (too many false breaks again)...except for two (see chart) and one happens to be the one you bought into at its break.
    Where to from here from a TA point of view is anyones guess...thats why I have given up being in this share at any stage...it's just too hard.

    Is there comfort in knowing that the smart money have bought in (OBV Twiggs ACC/DIST) ....not with FPH it seems

    EDIT
    A great overall picture is a downtrend is in progress..eh?




    Last edited by Hoop; 21-06-2012 at 01:17 PM.

  12. #32
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    Tell me it aint so!!! the reality doesnt match the chart? It must be annoying when that happens..sort of unsporting in a way. I find enough confusion as it is without letting excessive analysis make it worse. My hope is that it has a lot less distance to fall now than it has at any time in the last five years.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Yes that is a significant strong support that broke. It would scare me out as well



    Brought in ..huh?? Hmmm

    The good news BB is that using TA with default indicators is useless its a big TA FAI (e.g see chart below)....The FA crowd will be cheering about that..eh.

    Even the chart trendies can't even draw an reliable trendline (too many false breaks), there seems to be no clear pattern formations...even worse one can't seem to draw any meaningful S&R lines either (too many false breaks again)...except for two (see chart) and one happens to be the one you bought into at its break.
    Where to from here from a TA point of view is anyones guess...thats why I have given up being in this share at any stage...it's just too hard.

    Is there comfort in knowing that the smart money have bought in (OBV Twiggs ACC/DIST) ....not with FPH it seems

    EDIT
    A great overall picture is a downtrend is in progress..eh?





  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    Tell me it aint so!!! the reality doesnt match the chart? It must be annoying when that happens..sort of unsporting in a way. I find enough confusion as it is without letting excessive analysis make it worse. My hope is that it has a lot less distance to fall now than it has at any time in the last five years.
    Well it's a lot closer to zero now, so the fall couldn’t be that great. It's a real pity that a company with such great products, growth in sales and overall potential, has been such a consistently poor SP performer for such a long (more than 5 years) period of time.

  14. #34
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    Its returned 12 cents a year plus imputation credits for the last 3 years which at the current price of 1.94 means approx 6.2% yield...sounds good to me. Dont really care what the share price does as long as it keeps up the dividend returns. Sanity will return at some point. As you said underlying basics seem fine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaphod View Post
    Well it's a lot closer to zero now, so the fall couldn’t be that great. It's a real pity that a company with such great products, growth in sales and overall potential, has been such a consistently poor SP performer for such a long (more than 5 years) period of time.

  15. #35
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    I wonder if they would benefit from a buy back? Price got knocked around a lot on low turnover Jun to Dec last year. A modest buy back could have supported the share price and not scared the horses.

    They should also perhaps stop issuing shares to staff every five minutes. The discount they offer them at would surely encourage staff to sell with little thought involved.

    My patience is wearing thin on this one. Watched it go sideways for years... a company really not realising anything close to its potential.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Penfold View Post
    I wonder if they would benefit from a buy back? Price got knocked around a lot on low turnover Jun to Dec last year. A modest buy back could have supported the share price and not scared the horses.

    They should also perhaps stop issuing shares to staff every five minutes. The discount they offer them at would surely encourage staff to sell with little thought involved.

    My patience is wearing thin on this one. Watched it go sideways for years... a company really not realising anything close to its potential.
    I would have thought the completion of its mexico plant would contribute more to the bottom line.Also wonder if the Obama Healthplan legal success today will be positive for the company.I just bought into FPH as a longterm investment with excellent dividend income prospects.Hope I am right!

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by crighton100 View Post
    I would have thought the completion of its mexico plant would contribute more to the bottom line.Also wonder if the Obama Healthplan legal success today will be positive for the company.I just bought into FPH as a longterm investment with excellent dividend income prospects.Hope I am right!
    Is it a good long term hold now ??

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    Is it a good long term hold now ??
    In theory they are in a growth industry and sales have performed OK - rising from $290m in 2006 when they earned $70m after tax to $467m in 2012. Sales growth has been flat the last four years. Profits were $64m, $6m less than 6 years ago. On the plus side, return on assets and equity remain fairly high and debts are modest. But with sales static and profits subdued, its hard to call FPH a compelling purchase. At 16 times earnings, for a company that has not demonstrated profitable growth, they are not screaming "buy me".

    My take is that they are cyclical currency play if the kiwi materially drops against major trading partners (particularly the greenback).

    They could also be a takeover target - the register is fairly open and global medical equipment makers could perhaps extract economies.

    Technically they look weak - you could have paid the same price back in 2003. Look for support around the current level or maybe $1.80 if that fails.

    Disc: Don't hold

  19. #39
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    Picking up these up at 1.87. Getting to be better value for upside and a reasonable divi meantime IMHO.

  20. #40
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    It is possible to spin the FPH slightly more positively. Revenue has been flat in NZD for the last few years, but with much of it's business in USD, it's interesting to observe that revenue in USD has increased at about 10% pa. (271m in 2008, 417m in 2012). A few years ago it needed a low NZD to make a profit, maybe now it has got to the stage where it can make a profit even with a higher NZD.

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