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  1. #41
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    Per this article: http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1...ealthcare.html

    it is still on over 15x, this for a company that is not growing earnings at even 5%. The company is still overvalued. I called it at $3.10 when pe was over 20x and outlook was 0 growth.

    Investing in a company because it has a dividend yield of 8% is very naive, and I would suggest there is further weakness ahead - I could see a 12x multiple as being appropriate.

    Compare it to a company like Apple - which is growing at a good clip and trading on 10x ex cash... You would be mad to own FPH. Same story for AIA. New Zealand investors are far to focused on simple dividned yield and should be considering what the earnings profile is over the next few years. SKC is an example of a NZ company which is growing at 5-10%pa has upside with the convention centre, is relatively ungeared, and is trading on 15x. I know which I would rather own SKC vs FPH. Quality of earnings and barriers to entry also higher with SKC.

    FPH a classic 'growth story' that isn't growing - better to call it what it is - a yield story in a defensive sector - but if you do it will have to derate like I say - 10-12x.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwi_on_OE View Post
    It is possible to spin the FPH slightly more positively. Revenue has been flat in NZD for the last few years, but with much of it's business in USD, it's interesting to observe that revenue in USD has increased at about 10% pa. (271m in 2008, 417m in 2012). A few years ago it needed a low NZD to make a profit, maybe now it has got to the stage where it can make a profit even with a higher NZD.
    It does make a profit. No one is saying it doesn't. The problem is the profit is not growing while you are paying a multiple for it that suggests it should be actually growing its profit at 5-10% every year.

  3. #43
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    The multiple may well indicate the market is anticipating a growth in profit and/or a major player wishing to integrate FPH's innovation , creativity , technology and products into their business.
    The share price movement could well indicate the market is getting impatient. Hopefully a case of wealth transfer from the impatient to the patient.
    Time will tell.

  4. #44
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    Anyone know why the 14c drop (so far) is happening? I would have expected bad news but can't see any reason. Am I missing something?

  5. #45
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by blobbles View Post
    Anyone know why the 14c drop (so far) is happening? I would have expected bad news but can't see any reason. Am I missing something?
    Does not look too good.Share price has dropped below 30day moving average on quiet large volume.
    I have been expecting good new from FPH as I see Remed in Aussie have had good increases in sales.Thought FPH would have had the same,so I am surprised.

  6. #46
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    It's down as expectations FPH's margins will suffer on the new US medicare bid program, see ResMed in Australia, down 8% as well.

    Bit overblown, good buying opportunity.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  7. #47
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    Just what I thought to Silverlight, at a pretty consistent 7% ROI... that's a hell of a lot better than banks will give me! Plus potential for upside through growth... hmmm...

  8. #48
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    Here is a lot of the details on the new Medicare tender process:

    CMS.gov press release

    Reductions to product bids around circa 50% lower, which is quite a big cut. This however will be to the headline products/ machines, which make up about 25% of FPH's revenues, and US only, which is 45%, so the bid process will impact roughly 12% of FPH's revenues, with potential to reduce earnings 50% for the % of these revenues that are provided through Medicare?

    FPH does not breakdown sales to the level of who their direct customers are, let alone in the US alone, i.e. Medicare/ Private Hospitals/ Private Insurers/ Individuals, so hard to extrapolate further on potential impact.

    The other 75% FPH's earnings are driven from consumables and accessories for their headline products, you buy a $1k - $10k humidifier, one off cost, but FPH makes more money over the long haul as the customer buys replacement tubes, seals etc, for safety, one time uses etc, I doubt these additional purchases are directed by the bid program, which probably targets which machine you purchase in the first place. Overall this is still effecting less than 12% of revenues, and FPH is in a growth industry.

    This short term pull back is probably a good opportunity to add to your holding if you are underweight your targets.
    Last edited by Silverlight; 01-02-2013 at 10:39 AM.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  9. #49
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    Nice work , seems you can make money even with the Kiwi dollar going up ....RAK what's the story .........

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Nice work , seems you can make money even with the Kiwi dollar going up ....RAK what's the story .........
    The story for Rakon is they did what Pumpkin Patch did (i.e David Jackson). They assumed they were the 'experts' and just read the experts advise, and then did whatever they wanted about the currency.

    Fisher and Paykel Healthcare however (i.e Tony Carter and their risk committee) understand that they pay experts for their experts advise and follow what the currency experts say.

    I have read many Asia Pacific currency reports, and they are frequent and pretty spot on. David Jackson and Bruce Irvine both believed they knew better and failed. Pumpkin Patch is better off without David Jackson on their board and running their risk committee.

    Asia Pacific client list

    Overall good forecast, shows the Medicare process was a good buying opportunity, $3+ by year end, especially if we also get some currency relief.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  11. #51
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    i love it., just accumulating on the right time.., justify today..

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drongo View Post
    Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

    Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.



    Its different this time......Yeah right...

    It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

    Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
    Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.

    I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.


  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

    Its different this time......Yeah right...

    It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.
    Hoop agree, long term 5 -10 years, the NZ dollar will retrace to a fair value. However I disagree on your view of the quote. The article seems to take Mike Daniell out of context, within the wider business to focus on one view. He says maybe here to stay, i.e. if you are an exporter plan for the next 5 years of a strong NZ dollar. It doesn't mean FPH are not planning for a reversion, they are just worst case scenario planning, prepare for the worst. Mike Daniell is a very experienced and competetant CEO for FPH, and has been with the company 30 years.

    Also not he is not on the risk committee, which is responsible for the high level risk management, including currency management, and I rate their risk committee has one of the better risk committees amongst NZX listed firms.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  14. #54
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    Well I have a record of being 100% wrong on currency.
    My view is NZ $ will continue to out perform the US$.
    The last 40 years have been out of kilter.
    We will see the NZ dollar return to it's true value,and I expect it to be twice the value of US$ over the next few years as US printing money will devalue the US$.
    Manufacturing in NZ will get more difficult and we will see more of FPH manufacturing move out of NZ.
    I see the US developing more of UK sickness.Lack of new jobs,more people out of work,and Local Govt and The Govt failing to balance their books.Think California.
    Last edited by percy; 25-02-2013 at 02:38 PM.

  15. #55
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    Drongo by name but NOT by nature. Agree too many worriers out there..just get on with it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Drongo View Post
    dont understand you 2, forget about dollar changes, the dollar will change regardless,just get down to business.

  16. #56
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    You can nominate all you want but personally I agree completely with him. Having a chief exec who recognises the global reality and is not living in "hope" makes him a smart bugger. The last thing the US wants is a strong Dollar so longing for the "rightful" position of the NZD is just buying into the good old days will return.. Yeh right!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

    Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.



    Its different this time......Yeah right...

    It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

    Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
    Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.

    I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.


  17. #57
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    Hope some of you traders caught this break out last week up 10.95% since last week, some big off market buyers!
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Huskeez; 20-05-2013 at 10:28 AM.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Good ol' FX rate coming into play now
    Nice to see , wonder where the new resistance will form , 3.20 from oct 2011 maybe? , Time will tell xoxo gossip girl

  19. #59
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    Good start to week and on Thursday FPH release financial results for the year....

    Holding

  20. #60
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    First NZ upgraded to BUY

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