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Thread: Fph

  1. #1101
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Fisher and Paykel Healthcare delivers another record profit, but is it sustainable?

    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Another good result from this great NZ company. Should be in any longterm portfolio
    I beg to differ and think others have raised legitimate valuation concerns. You never know though mate, in this crazy world of interest rates at 200 year lows a forward PE of over 50 just might prove to be pretty sticky. What if we get a cure for Covid 19 and interest rates start rising in due course though ? Will the forward PE of over 50 prove to be sticky then ?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12344028
    Last edited by Beagle; 29-06-2020 at 09:35 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #1102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I beg to differ and think others have raised legitimate valuation concerns. You never know though mate, in this crazy world of interest rates at 200 year lows a forward PE of over 50 just might prove to be pretty sticky. What if we get a cure for Covid 19 and interest rates start rising in due course though ? Will the forward PE of over 50 prove to be sticky then ?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12344028
    Totally agree mate about it being very expensive right now and noted posters like yourself, peat and BP have made very vaiid valuation concerns that I agree with. You will note I did not say one should be buying it now. I said it should be a part of a long term portfolio. That is my belief and I hold it as such but the smallest NZ holding I have at only 3% of portfolio. Bought a long time ago and will be held for a long time to come yet, whatever interest rates and COVID do. Just like you and I are going to do with our PAZ shares :-)

  3. #1103
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    note that in reality npat grew 23% not 37%

    I make earnings about 50c per share. so thats a PE of about 64 for a growth of 23. Not a great PEG
    eg Ebos makes a $1 per share and is only $21
    FPH has half those earnings and costs 50% more at $33

    good for holders I guess but crazy for investors
    I am not sure where you get your 23% from?
    $209M2 to $287M3 is a 37% increase and
    36.5cps to 50.0cps is also a 37% increase.

    That $147M of hedging reserve 'losses' had better not find it's way into the P&L !

    I think I would rather have EBO than FPH, but currently hold neither.
    om mani peme hum

  4. #1104
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    There are a lot of wealthy upper middle income people in the US among the unacceptable poverty and FPH has an established market there. It's dependant on the long term breathing issues but it's not an unrealistic idea there will be long term demand across the range of products.

    The flu is bad enough but the flu and covid at the same time will cause some respiratory complications that won't fix themselves or "recover" as it were. I think quite a few will pay anything to be more comfortable or extend life and use these machines and consumables innovatively in their home in the more extreme cases.
    Last edited by Panda-NZ-; 30-06-2020 at 06:56 AM.

  5. #1105
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Ok I understand that.What does your foresight show long term ?
    It seems like the SM is your hobby. That's great and a lot of us can learn a lot from your posts.
    Looking ahead how long will any of us be around?10,15,20 yrs?
    Who do we leave it all to and how knowledgeable will they be?
    I don't know but I look at parking some of my investments I anticipate will grow over the long term with minimal need to keep a close eye on.
    Posted 22/10/17
    And now nearly tripled in value since including dividends.Damn hard to hold on to these FPH shares!
    So many negative posters and they are all have good reasons why they will never own FPH.
    But would they sell if they owned them?
    I'm looking forward to a minimum of 15% compounding return in the forceable future.Sometimes higher,sometimes lower.
    FPH now 42% of my share portfolio.
    Sell the loosers, keep the winners
    Last edited by kiora; 30-06-2020 at 08:34 AM.

  6. #1106
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post

    Sell the losers, keep the winners
    Which I agree is very true and sound advice, but very hard to do when your winners are up 1000% plus, and are on PE of more than 50!

  7. #1107
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    DIRECT showing a PE of over 70!??
    Have a Gr8day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GR8DAY View Post
    DIRECT showing a PE of over 70!??
    as far as I know it hasn’t updated to reflect the new earnings yet but never the less I believe the P/E is still well in the 60’s and very over valued by my calculations.

    Fantastic post Peat, you made a very good summation. When looking at the NPAT I would go with what the business has achieved and not the vagueries of currency fluctuations as these are likely to unwind and will over the long term balance out.

    PEG of approx 3
    Last edited by Mr Slothbear; 30-06-2020 at 11:38 AM.

  9. #1109
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    It's becoming harder to hold FPH as the SP breaches $35! A great company and all that and the wind is certainly in their sails at present but every time I see posters predicting an indefinite rosy future I'm reminded of a certain CEO of an Aust copper company and his constant cry of "stronger for longer" at the height of the mining boom a couple of decades ago. Like all such booms, it ended abruptly and the company concerned was forced to restructure in a much diminished way. I don't see this happening to FPH, which I hold, but I certainly wouldn't be adding any more at these prices.

  10. #1110
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    Wife told me this morning I had made a big mistake selling her FPH, shares,should have held onto them.
    Really I said,where do you think the money came to buy your PAZ shares from?
    So it really comes down to selling one great share to buy an even better one,on more modest ratios.
    Not easy to do,however.
    Last edited by percy; 30-06-2020 at 12:01 PM.

  11. #1111
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    If it can grow earnings at around 30% consistently for the next 7 to 10 years, it be a pretty good investment now at a PE of just 60.

  12. #1112
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    It might look expensive today, ( as it did 1 year ago today at $15.88) but will that look expensive 1 year from now?

  13. #1113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    I am not sure where you get your 23% from?

    That $147M of hedging reserve 'losses' had better not find it's way into the P&L !
    from their own announcement in constant currency.

    which figure is the bottom line ?

    if they lost money in their dealing room it counts as a negative is they way I see it.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  14. #1114
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    "10 Semi-Controversial Traits Of Some Of The Best Stocks"
    "Bottom Line
    Don't let some of the traits that are universally considered as negative attributes for a stock prevent you from buying and holding some of the best-of-breed businesses available on the market."
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...content=link-0

  15. #1115
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Wife told me this morning I had made a big mistake selling her FPH, shares,should have held onto them.
    Really I said,where do you think the money came to buy your PAZ shares from?
    So it really comes down to selling one great share to buy an even better one,on more modest ratios.
    Not easy to do,however.
    made me laugh . Thanks for sharing

  16. #1116
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Totally agree mate about it being very expensive right now and noted posters like yourself, peat and BP have made very vaiid valuation concerns that I agree with. You will note I did not say one should be buying it now. I said it should be a part of a long term portfolio. That is my belief and I hold it as such but the smallest NZ holding I have at only 3% of portfolio. Bought a long time ago and will be held for a long time to come yet, whatever interest rates and COVID do. Just like you and I are going to do with our PAZ shares :-)
    Fair enough mate and kudos to you for taking a very long term approach. Congrats to all long term holders. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+30+Jun+2020
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-06-2020 at 08:40 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  17. #1117
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    Just another reason to keep good supplies in hospitals worldwide
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2...swine-flu.html

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