Chatham Rock Phosphate - CRP

[blackcap]

Boom, here we go;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/186542.pdf

Unfortunately for shareholders the share price is going no where in the immediate future...

[Roberto]

Unfortunately for shareholders the share price is going no where in the immediate future...

Great to finally get it, but yeah - the mining licence has been a given for a long time - doesn't look like it'll do amazing things to the sp. We'll need the marine licence for that. Back to the waiting game...

[Intel]

Congrats to Chatham Rock! Good milestone to pass, I do feel a little bad continually pushing this, however average phophate price in Novemeber was USD $108 a tonnne.. down another $12... With the world bank still forcasting real rate declines out to 2025... Just hope every holder is aware of this! Congrats to CRp none the less,, IM sure a lot of work went into that license!

[MAC]

It’s a long term high reward high risk investment with a long way to go and potentially a big future.

I see the three main risks for the venture as being the mining permit, the marine consent and perhaps the remaining apportionment, lesser of the three, on the boat construction and early operations.

CRP have made good progress this year, albeit a few months slower within a multiyear plan, and are perhaps now a third de-risked on the way to a de-risked valuation in the order of $2.

Disc: Hold, buy any dips along the way.

[blackcap]

I, and are perhaps now a third de-risked on the way to a de-risked valuation in the order of $2.

Disc: Hold, buy any dips along the way.

Mac, I would take that valuation from Edison with a grain of salt. If you want to waste good money, that is your choice but check what Intel has been saying before you rush in. I am not knocking CRP, I think they are doing good things and hope it works but some of the valuations given seem to be plucked out of thin air.

[MAC]

Mac, I would take that valuation from Edison with a grain of salt. If you want to waste good money, that is your choice but check what Intel has been saying before you rush in. I am not knocking CRP, I think they are doing good things and hope it works but some of the valuations given seem to be plucked out of thin air.

Thanks blackcap, have done my research thoroughly, price sensitivities, and FA at $1.85 also, slightly lower than Edison at $2.04 and CRP’s at $2.20 , and understand the risks start up ventures pose.

I apply portfolio diversification limit rules to manage risk also and wouldn't recommend to others to invest their house in a startup venture , but I do see CRP as one of the more prospective within the NZX.

Look forward to a marine consent next year.

DYOR

[Roberto]

It’s a long term high reward high risk investment with a long way to go and potentially a big future.

I see the three main risks for the venture as being the mining permit, the marine consent and perhaps the remaining apportionment, lesser of the three, on the boat construction and early operations.

CRP have made good progress this year, albeit a few months slower within a multiyear plan, and are perhaps now a third de-risked on the way to a de-risked valuation in the order of $2.

Disc: Hold, buy any dips along the way.

Would you add environmental group opposition to that list? After the BRL debacle, that's my biggest fear.

[Intel]

Thanks blackcap, have done my research thoroughly, price sensitivities, and FA at $1.85 also, slightly lower than Edison at $2.04 and CRP’s at $2.20 , and understand the risks start up ventures pose.

I apply portfolio diversification limit rules to manage risk also and wouldn't recommend to others to invest their house in a startup venture , but I do see CRP as one of the more prospective within the NZX.

Look forward to a marine consent next year.

DYOR

Hmmmm... DYOR is ironic in that last post, as you are of the belief that nothing has changed since august, when Edisons report was released.. Ill help you, Global phosphate prices have plummeted, from 165 to 108 since that last report, See attached for a scenario analysis of sensitivity to changes in phosphate prices from Edison. You are betting on a company which will be one of the highest cost producers in a market which is having huge amounts of supply come on line.... An undetermined mining contract rate which was advised to be 70 Euro per tonne, that was almost 2 years ago now and guess what, prices go up... In my view this is not the time to be investing in such a company... Happy to hear and understand how you derive such a valuation? Also relying on a resaerch report like Edison is silly as you have no clue what assumptions they put in their models..

Attachment 5157

[Intel]

Oh and add to the fact that CRP has next to $0 in the bank account now, so you will have further dilution and capital raisings at much lower prices....

[blackcap]

Oh and add to the fact that CRP has next to $0 in the bank account now, so you will have further dilution and capital raisings at much lower prices....

'
Thanks for posting your analysis there Intel, or should I say, Edison's analysis. Things as they stand look bleak for CRP as costs are increasing indeed. And with such prospects, the untried nature of it will no doubt create greater costs than initially anticipated. And yes the price sensitivity is spectacular.