Chatham Rock Phosphate - CRP

[MAC]

It would be nice too if they are done before the HY report this week so as to include in the commentary. Will be interesting to see whom may have moved into the top 20 holders list also after the capital raise.

Not sure what day it is due actually, could be tomorrow, was on the 25th last year ?

[MAC]

Was late on a Friday for those that missed it;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/204716.pdf

[NT001]

The DMC chairman Neil Walter has a very long-established reputation as a team leader who earns people's confidence and brings them together to achieve constructive outcomes, but without too much dithering. I don't know his views (if any) on enviromental issues and wouldn't take too much out of the ironsands decision where the issues were different. Walter has shown his ability to work with distinction across a whole variety of difficult areas including of course foreign diplomacy in MFAT's happier and more productive days. That's one reason I am very optimistic about this decision. Another is CRP's willingness to offer compromises that in many cases have already won the agreement of the opponents. And a third of course is that the DMC would prefer not to earn a reputation of caving in to the environmentalists and cultural purists on every economic development project that's proposed. That's not what the government and EPA want.

[Snow Leopard]

DMC officially 'at the beach' until Monday 5th-Jan-2015 ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[NT001]

Another helpful boost for CRP, which seems to have given it a slight SP lift this morning

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258736

[croesus]

Another helpful boost for CRP, which seems to have given it a slight SP lift this morning

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258736

Hopefully Bodes well, for the Permit go ahead

[BlackPeter]

Hopefully Bodes well, for the Permit go ahead

can't possibly see any connection between the R&D grant and the environmental permit, but yes - I certainly hope the permit gets through (otherwise it would be a sad reflection on doing business in NZ).

The other question however is whether the phosphate mining afterwards will be economical - and I think the jury on that might be still out. Had a look through this UN report: ftp://ftp.fao.org/ag/agp/docs/cwfto16.pdf, and it looks like they feel that we might have over the next couple of years a phosphate surplus (which probably does not bode well for the price). On the other hand - the prediction goes only until 2016 - and who knows, when CRP starts mining (if they get the permit).

[MAC]

The world bank phosphate price forecasts were assessed by expert witnesses during the hearing and were pretty much absolutely and totally rubbished by them. The plot below was entered as evidence to demonstrate such.

There are several independent professionally prepared phosphate market research reports available which you can buy, these are prepared by within sector experts. The one I have evaluates a series of supply and demand scenarios, and offers overall a positive outlook for the market.

IMO it is better to buy into a phosphate company during a cyclical phosphate market low than a cyclical phosphate market peak.

Attachment 6582

[NT001]

I see Labour has criticised the Callaghan Innovation award to CRP. This doesn't surprise me, in fact I thought some would see it as premature. But maybe this is Steven Joyce's way of sending a message to the DMC that the government favours the project. I seem to remember Chris Castle saying the company was disappointed the government's submission didn't really emphasise the economic benefits of the project.

http://campaign.labour.org.nz/consen...osphate_mining

[NT001]

Yes BP, but there are widely varying assessments of the future supply and price for phosphate and they're all a bit of a guess. The WHO report is already a bit dated, I'd say. More recent market analyses that I've seen specifically of phosphate have suggested prices are likely to rise. The producers including Morocco are actually trying to push prices up, and although global phosphate resources are reasonably plentiful, production requires expensive investment and infrastructure. And even if the global price eases (temporarily?) there are still pluses in using a local source.

The more important question is how viable this project will be and how soon, and what extra capital raisings may be required. Although in general I'm a longterm investor, my gut feeling is that if the consent is granted it might be best to cash up on the early rise in SP rather than hold longterm.