Chatham Rock Phosphate - CRP

[youngatheart]

An open question, is it better value to hold CRP directly at 15.5c or indirectly via AOR at 0.7c ?

[croesus]

An open question, is it better value to hold CRP directly at 15.5c or indirectly via AOR at 0.7c ?

Good question, being a risk averse investor ( puttin my flack proof theme on as i type ) I prefer AOR, as apart from CRP, there is the oil play via Mosman energy. ( plus a few otherodds n sods )..if your a bit less risk averse go for AORWA...

Not sure the ratio on these now... after recent AOR issues...
MAC or any one ? know what giddy heights AOR needs to be to make it worth turning AORWA into AOR ?

disc.. hold all the above

[croesus]

Predictive... aaaargh " flack proof theme " should have read " flack proof helmet "
sorry bout that

[MAC]

Good question, being a risk averse investor ( puttin my flack proof theme on as i type ) I prefer AOR, as apart from CRP, there is the oil play via Mosman energy. ( plus a few otherodds n sods )..if your a bit less risk averse go for AORWA...

Not sure the ratio on these now... after recent AOR issues...
MAC or any one ? know what giddy heights AOR needs to be to make it worth turning AORWA into AOR ?

disc.. hold all the above

Not sure either, don't research AOR to that extent.

Different companies, different investments, development vs production, each to their own.

[BlackPeter]

Good question, being a risk averse investor ( puttin my flack proof theme on as i type ) I prefer AOR, as apart from CRP, there is the oil play via Mosman energy. ( plus a few otherodds n sods )..if your a bit less risk averse go for AORWA...

Not sure the ratio on these now... after recent AOR issues...
MAC or any one ? know what giddy heights AOR needs to be to make it worth turning AORWA into AOR ?

disc.. hold all the above

not sure about AOR (haven't done any research into it, so can't comment), but if you are really a risk adverse investor, than I don't think that CRP or anything exposed to it would be the right stock for you.

[croesus]

Generally Risk averse, mostly in Commercial property.... being Risk Averse is a 2 edged definition, by having a couple of percent of my funds in AOR, AORE and CRP... I am being Risk Averse, as I am not willing to risk missing out if AOR or CRP ... hit the jackpot.

( cackhanded way of describing it but I hope you get the drift )


Cheers

[MAC]

It’s all about risk/reward too, not just risk. Nobody IMO should be putting their house into one stock though especially a high risk/reward one.

The prospective rewards for Chatham Rock are clear, the SP has been discounted to loose change at present due to regulatory risk, and there are ways to minimise the risk and keep the prospective reward.

Just keep a diversification limit and stick to it, use options to your advantage if you can get them.

I’ve invested 30% of my diversification limit prior to the marine consent, and if granted, intend to invest the remaining 70% through exercising options if a consent is granted.

The phosphate market may just be coming off a cyclical low too, there would possibly be greater risk if the converse was true.

Disc: Happy to hold long term for a cyclical phosphate market peak

[NT001]

The phosphate market may just be coming off a cyclical low too, there would possibly be greater risk if the converse was true.

As indicated by the Middle East newspaper article you posted a few days ago, MAC, there are a number of concerns about Morocco's position as the world's dominant phosphate exporter, including a potential ISIS threat in northern Morocco. ISIS is keen to exploit local dissensions to seize control of valuable economic resources across the whole region, as already seen in Libya. There are also issues about the fact that some of the best phosphate mining that feeds Morocco's economy is actually in Western Sahara, a territory illegally seized and controlled by Morocco at present but potentially subject to conflict. Plus, Morocco's king whose fairly enlightened economic policies are largely based on phosphate sales, is determined to drive up the world price.

Sure, there are other countries with phosphate (including Australia) and Morocco's production is much less than that of China and the US which consume most of their own local production. But there's actually quite a lot of talk in market commentary of "peak phosphate" - a global shortage looming because world demand for food outstrips the availability of the phosphate fertiliser needed to grow it. And the potential shortage is exacerbated because some countries are pushing crop growth not only for food but for biofuels, which are notorious for requiring huge applications of phosphate.

From all I've read, phosphate prices are likely to go up rather than down. Dunno what evidence has been given to the hearings.

[MAC]

I think the closing statements day on the 19th of November will be fascinating does anyone know what time it starts........ to be held at the RA Vance stand @ the Basin reserve.

The transcripts all seem to kick off at 9am, imagine they probably want folk seated a bit prior to that.

I’ve not been along to the hearing yet and might go also for a listen on the 19th also.

Imagine, if true to form, you will probably be sitting with the hippies throwing rocks Snapiti ?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203263.pdf

[MAC]

lol.... yeh with my legalize cannabis T-shirt on.(t shirt made of hemp of course).

going along purely to here the summing up of arguments to see if I think I should make an investment in the company. Watching the body language of the people involved and having a chat to a few people will be most reveling me thinks.

It was revealing just to read George Clement's transcript and his cross examination, seems to have stubbornly moderated his view a bit I reckon, I was surprised actually for someone so vocal in the media that he was so confused over even the size of the area to be mined. But, I guess that's a lot of what hearings are for, to give everyone a chance to have a say and to give everyone an opportunity to be set straight.

Should be an interesting day indeed, four years work for some come to fruition, Robin Falconer, Mike Patrick, Ray Wood, the Boskalis guys, and all the consultants.