Chatham Rock Phosphate - CRP

[BFG]

DMC officially 'at the beach' until Monday 5th-Jan-2015 ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The powers that be have much longer holidays than us mere mortals as their job is so very stress filled

[barleeni]

Slight drop in the share price immediately after the announcement and quite a few more sellers at or around current value..... and I thought I was impatient!

[BlackPeter]

Quite right MAC. A completely contradictory announcement. How to confuse the market and its participants. Seems rather unprofessional. I hope its not indicative of the attention to detail of the DMC.

Ah - yes - the law says 20 working days. Given that the DMC members will have some leave over Christmas / New Year, they just added these 2 to 3 weeks to the decision period, given they don't work during that time (i.e. no working days). Standard practise for public servants, same thing for courts / public consultations / planners / ... . Be glad that they don't close down for all of January (as some public entities still do), which would have given them until mid of February.

[MAC]

Well yes, the EEZ legislation says 20 working days which must have a definition by law I guess.

But, if the EPA and DMC wish to stretch that a little in this respect, I really don't think CRP are likely to hold them to account. doubt they even considered the sharemarket for a second.

A long loose piece of string has no stress, no one wants a stressed DMC.

[NT001]

Meanwhile Trans-Tasman Resources has dropped its appeal against the DCM's rejection of its proposal to vacuum ironsands off the ocean floor in the Tasman Sea. This doesn't directly impact on the CRP application, though it would appear there could certainly be some bureaucratic problems if it's similarly turned down. Here's the well-backgrounded story filed tonight by BusinessDesk:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU141...al-dropped.htm

[upfrontal]

First time poster, long time reader.....
I have been following this thread for a while (having bought some CRP shares around a year ago), cried into my latte in August and slowly started smiling over the last few weeks......I share MAC's current optimism and feel that CRP has done a lot of work to get this past the finishing line.
I have discussed the effects of the consenting on the share price with a number of people and received varying estimates from 45 cents up to $1.76.
Cross fingers for a pre Christmas announcement and I just wanted to say thank you for some great discussions over the last few months.

[cammo]

Im sitting on the side of a granting of the consent with conditions....neatly tied to what has just been awarded them..... get some first year Post Grad students to undertake studies whilst they mine and evaluate in 3 years time. gotta love the smell of a pseudo public-private mining model to undertake new horizon mining.

[NT001]

I have discussed the effects of the consenting on the share price with a number of people and received varying estimates from 45 cents up to $1.76.

Yes UF but in what timeframe?

[upfrontal]

Yes UF but in what timeframe?

It has varied with the higher quotes being at the start of mining in 2017. If shares are held that long then multiple other factors come into play (not least the strength of the NZ dollar).
My own rough and ready DCF came up with a share price of around $1.76 (in agreement with the upper end of the quotes I received) at commencement of mining assuming that the dollar and phosphate prices remain stable.
It is worth noting that the current low oil price may make transport of the Moroccan stuff cheaper over the next few years (I have seen a report estimating that these low prices will continue for 2 years, this ties in nicely with the start of mining), which may also affect the share price.
It was a good point raised by MAC a little while ago re political instability, once again this will affect the price of the Moroccan phosphate.

Looking at short term, I have had one person say that with consent the price will go up to between 30c to 50c, this is a little low IMO as shares were trading at 33c before the infamous EPA report was leaked.
I have looked at historical penny stock record one day gains, the highest was around 20 times in one day with 6 times being fairly common (so there is precedent for large one day gains) although these were not in mining companies.
Presuming consent is granted there will be a surge in share price, the question is how big?

[NT001]

Thanks for your full and researched answer.