If National wins ...

[fungus pudding]

I hope Winston will see that only about 24% of eligible voters chose Labour, the "Not Labour" vote was huge, also take not that he loathes James Shaw and the Greens.

You can spin it anyway you like.

Not really. Under an MMP election the party with the highest no. of votes is the winner, although will usually be short of an outright majority therefore requiring a coaltion partner. That is what MMP is designed to acheive. That is not to say the winner has to be part of the coalition, but there would be an uproar if it wasn't, given the second, third and fourth parties are so far behind, and even in total just make the 50%+ mark..

[blackcap]

EL Zorro,

Just had a look at the markets... they think you guys are toast. its $1.11 for a National Prime Minister and $10.00 for a Labour one..... Game over I think.

[iceman]

I hope Winston will see that only about 24% of eligible voters chose Labour, the "Not Labour" vote was huge, also take not that he loathes James Shaw and the Greens.

You can spin it anyway you like.

I hope Winston realises that 93% of eligible voters did NOT vote for NZ First !! But I doubt he will show voters any such regard

[blackcap]

I hope Winston realises that 93% of eligible voters did NOT vote for NZ First !! But I doubt he will show voters any such regard

Would not worry too much... National are now at $1.07 and Labour at $14.00, with Winston at $65

[elZorro]

Would not worry too much... National are now at $1.07 and Labour at $14.00, with Winston at $65

Pretty good odds, considering we know how unpredictable Winston is. Will he do a deal with the Nats, just after they leaked details on his super payments, and up until recently wouldn't have been giving him the time of day? Colin James thinks he will be weighing up the options, and since he has gathered up those votes by pointing out what's wrong with National's policies, he's perfectly entitled to help the existing Labour-Green coalition over the line, who by that time (special votes) might be only 2% behind National.

Colin James worked with Winston when he was in the National Party.

Colin James Otago Daily Times election extra September 25 2017

English on top but facing a stronger Labour


National operates on the principle that in politics there is only first place because that is where the power is. So assume Bill English is prepared to pay what it takes to get Winston Peters on board.

Peters meanwhile has adopted his habitual sphinx-like position. It may be some time before we know for sure the government makeup. National's 46.0% election night party vote is by any measure extraordinary after three terms and in a proportional system. That means English needs only New Zealand First for a majority. Jacinda Ardern needs a three-way deal. But the win English has been celebrating is qualified. Think of Labour and the Greens as an informal coalition and National's lead drops from 10.2% to 4.3%.

And if the 384,000 specials fall as differently from the election night count as in 2014, when National lost 1.1 percentage points between election night and the final count, that lead could drop to 2%-3%. If things go wrong -- as they did for the most recent fourth term governments, after the 1946 and 1969 elections -- that slim lead could quickly evaporate. And if the government slides and New Zealand First is part of it, its party might drop below 5% next election, as after its two coalition deals in 1996 and 2005.

Moreover, how would Peters, who wants net immigration cut to one-seventh its present level, work with English, whose vaunted GDP growth slips to near zero on a per capita basis, that is with immigration taken out? That is just one problematic area. Better to go with Labour-Greens? If you had to assign New Zealand First conference delegates to National or Labour, most would go Labour. The same majority applies to its policies. But the fact that New Zealand First's support halved after Ardern was made leader might mean its residual supporters are mostly National-leaning.

Whichever way Peters goes -- and one option is to stay out of government and just abstain on confidence and supply motions -- there is a whiff of the British election in June. Labour has climbed far higher than anyone expected just two months back, as British Labour did. The National-to-Labour two-party swing was 9.8% (election night to election night). And, as Theresa May was stripped of her majority, English has been stripped of two of his compliant tiddler parties and the third, ACT, is knackered: even in leader David Seymour's Epsom seat it scored only 565 party votes, behind fifth-placed Opportunities.

Labour is now positioned strongly for the next election, with a bigger caucus and able new MPs. The Greens, the July disaster behind them, should be able to consolidate. Ardern and James Shaw are a very presentable pair. But Labour has work to do on its "base" vote. The only seats where the swing was from Labour to National on the party vote were Mangere and Manukau East and next-door Manurewa's swing to Labour was tiny. In west Auckland the swing was also light. These areas used to be solid Labour. Now Labour looks stronger in seats with concentrations of university students and social liberals, like Wellington Central, Auckland Central, Mt Albert and Dunedin North, which all had swings from National well above the average.

An aside: Labour beat National on the party vote in Nelson, pointing Nick Smith towards the door. The door also beckons for Peters, 72. But first a decision as to who governs. Which might take some time.


Colin James, (64)-21-438 434, PO Box 9494, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz, www.ColinJames.co.nz

[blackcap]

They are pretty good odds... I have put a bit on Labour now too. At $12 (what they are now) that is just too big. Agree with you that the specials will sway Labours way. Most of the specials will be young voters (those not yet enrolled) and most will go left... But think Nats will get there with Winston, but think the odds should be 1.30, not 1.08

[BlackPeter]

Not really. Under an MMP election the party with the highest no. of votes is the winner, although will usually be short of an outright majority therefore requiring a coaltion partner. That is what MMP is designed to acheive. That is not to say the winner has to be part of the coalition, but there would be an uproar if it wasn't, given the second, third and fourth parties are so far behind, and even in total just make the 50%+ mark..

Not sure I would be outraged if more than 50% of the electorate stand behind whatever coalition - which (at current counting) would be the case with Labour / Green / NZF. I guess the other question would be whether they could provide a good and stable government, and this is obviously questionable looking at the involved characters and policies ... however - I would not question their political legitimacy if they try.

The other question is - what is better for NZ? To be honest - I don't know.

I think however that it would be good for Labour if Jacinda has three years in opposition to hone her parties policies and remove all the leftwing dead wood from the ranks. I think she could turn Labour into a reputable and credible opposition party. Better a good opposition leader than burning her now in a chaotic government - Labour has not really a surplus of good leaders and can't really afford to burn out a good leader at this stage.

For National it might be potentially as well better to go into opposition rather than going with the backwards looking flock from Winston First. Our world is full of selfish populistic governments not addressing the real issues (Trump, May) - we don't need more of these idiots in government.

The best option for NZ I could see would be a National Green government - but I doubt that our Greenies have the moral size and the political wisdom to grab this opportunity. They are likely to keep doing nothing for another three years instead of standing up and being counted.

But still - just imagine Bill / James announcing end of this week a coalition agreement with big wins for the environment, good for a stable and growing economy ... and the look on Winston's face would be priceless

[minimoke]

The best option for NZ I could see would be a National Green government - but I doubt that our Greenies have the moral size and the political wisdom to grab this opportunity. They are likely to keep doing nothing for another three years instead of standing up and being counted.

The big risk for the Greens is they may loose even more relevance. NZ First environmental policy key planks are ensuring there is a balance between economic progress and environmental goals as well as making rivers and lakes swimmable. If progress is made on these goals Greens may just slip under 5% and then never having been in government and with decades of wasted opportunity. Now is their one big chance to secure their legacy.

[couta1]

National and the Greens definitely the best option IMO, the Greens would be on a tight lead after the initial negotiations, unfortunately the Greens are too short sighted and stuck in their ways to allow this to happen.

[fungus pudding]

National and the Greens definitely the best option IMO, the Greens would be on a tight lead after the initial negotiations, unfortunately the Greens are too short sighted and stuck in their ways to allow this to happen.

Greens have some sensible envoiromenta policies, but their financial and social ideas are right off this planet.