If National wins ...

[elZorro]

You say a whole lot of things but then why is National the hot favourite to win the election?

Here is the thing ElZorro. I think its those things that the opposition are going to make the election about. But what the opposition do not realise is that quite a few National supporters are unperturbed by what you have listed there. (execpt maybe delays at emergency departments, but if you have not experienced it yourself you would not really know there are delays? are there?) So what you lefties think are all bad things, maybe a National supporter thinks are great things and you guys wonder why you keep losing. (ie I am quite happy about dairy cow numbers being up 20%, good for the economy etc)

But a strong economy would be exporting mainly high value products, not milk powder and pine logs, wouldn't it? Actually cow numbers seem more tied to the milk payout than anything else, and there has been a steady increase in cow numbers and a decrease in sheep numbers, as farms got converted over. Including Bill English's home farm at Dipton. But we are reaching the situation of a surplus of cows now, in terms of environmental impact on waterways. Not something National will be doing anything about.

Where is the big push by govt to get more of our businesses doing R&D, protecting special IP, and exporting more into niche markets from more regional manufacturing bases?

I forgot, we let the market decide that, don't we. And what is the market doing? Buying property, dairy farms, investing huge capital for low capital returns per annum, and mostly because it makes for a great tax dodge at low risk.

Tim Oliver had another laugh at National's expense over the Eminem case and looking at some court evidence, they made every effort to mimic the start of the "lose Yourself" rap. Not just the chords, the timbre and the timing, but the vocals as well. The actual Eminem track has never been authorised for political use, although many have tried to get permission through the proper channels.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11848563

[blackcap]

But a strong economy would be exporting mainly high value products, not milk powder and pine logs, wouldn't it? Actually cow numbers seem more tied to the milk payout than anything else, and there has been a steady increase in cow numbers and a decrease in sheep numbers, as farms got converted over. Including Bill English's home farm at Dipton. But we are reaching the situation of a surplus of cows now, in terms of environmental impact on waterways. Not something National will be doing anything about.

Where is the big push by govt to get more of our businesses doing R&D, protecting special IP, and exporting more into niche markets from more regional manufacturing bases?

I forgot, we let the market decide that, don't we. And what is the market doing? Buying property, dairy farms, investing huge capital for low capital returns per annum, and mostly because it makes for a great tax dodge.

Hi ElZorro, I think you missed my point. I do not disagree with some of the things you write and I would like to see less immigration too (and lower house prices with less regulation H&S to drive this) but the average Nat voter is probably very (should I say home owner ecstatic) about the current conditions of the economy and that is why NATs are overwhelming favs to deliver the next prime minister after the Sept elections. No amount of "facts" "spin" etc by the left is going to change how people feel....

[fungus pudding]

And how has National done on those fronts over the last few years? Upped immigration to historical highs to put undue pressure on (particularly Auckland) house prices, loaded up roads and other infrastructure, they've generally looked after people at the top with upper tier tax rate decreases and more GST levies for the rest of us. Increased dairy cow numbers by 20% with irrigation subsidies helping, also interfering with ECANZ, which has impacted on waterways. There is widespread concern about the mental health system, and even the refurbished, rebuilt Waikato Hospital emergency department has massive delays for other patients not immediately at risk.

No doubt about it eZ. We're doomed. We should all move to Trumpland before he cuts immigration entirely. Or what about Bangladesh, Nepal - Indonesia is even closer. Then again, there's always Australia.

[artemis]

Immigration is a two edged sword, electorally speaking. For everyone that can't afford housing that is what / where they want, there are several home owners, landlords and construction crews who are quite happy, thanks. For every unemployed person there are a few or more employers whose businesses would be heading downhill without immigrant labour. And in each case, the latter are more likely to actually vote than the former.

[elZorro]

Immigration is a two edged sword, electorally speaking. For everyone that can't afford housing that is what / where they want, there are several home owners, landlords and construction crews who are quite happy, thanks. For every unemployed person there are a few or more employers whose businesses would be heading downhill without immigrant labour. And in each case, the latter are more likely to actually vote than the former.

I don't know about the one-several/few comparisons, as there are equal numbers renting, at least. And for many of us, an increasing value of the home we live in, isn't of great use unless we are borrowing against it and using it for leverage. Most home owners will now be required to step up and help any children into their first home, and this isn't a few thousand dollars anymore.

But you are right, those who do a bit more thinking and put a bit of effort into their career, are more likely to vote in the elections. I don't have the answer as to how you'd get the 'missing million' to vote in September. If they did vote, National would be in serious trouble, but I don't see National as a sure bet to get back in anyway.

National are trying to get a lot of funds together for 2017. They are well aware that they can buy votes. They paid for all of the TV adverts using the fake Eminem soundtrack last time. That wasn't cheap for the space. Now they'll probably have to actually pay for the rights too. No matter what happens, they got to run a political ad campaign using Eminem's track, the only party in the world that has done so. The penalty for this abuse of copyright should be large. They have underestimated and denigrated the music industry, they should pay dearly for that.
The fact that Bill is now the leader, will dent their donations, and the court imposed fine will also take some of it.

John Key would have been aware of all of this, so here's a list of good reasons for him to abdicate well before the elections.

Pony-gate, and the obvious inability of National to use his mug on their hoardings in 2017.
National has had three terms, now it's getting hard.
The Labour-Green terms of agreement.
Numerous fibs from Key coming home to roost.
The Press figuring out what the implications of "Dirty Politics" were.
The Eminem Court case.
He's bored, the flag thing didn't work.
He doesn't need the money, thanks.
Protecting future earning pipelines with goodwill.
Worried about tax questions, tax havens (yes, I bet he's using one).
He's wanting some more free time with his family (note the position well down the list).

[Baa_Baa]

I don't know about the one-several/few comparisons, as there are equal numbers renting, at least. And for many of us, an increasing value of the home we live in, isn't of great use unless we are borrowing against it and using it for leverage. Most home owners will now be required to step up and help any children into their first home, and this isn't a few thousand dollars anymore.

But you are right, those who do a bit more thinking and put a bit of effort into their career, are more likely to vote in the elections. I don't have the answer as to how you'd get the 'missing million' to vote in September. If they did vote, National would be in serious trouble, but I don't see National as a sure bet to get back in anyway.

National are trying to get a lot of funds together for 2017. They are well aware that they can buy votes. They paid for all of the TV adverts using the fake Eminem soundtrack last time. That wasn't cheap for the space. Now they'll probably have to actually pay for the rights too. No matter what happens, they got to run a political ad campaign using Eminem's track, the only party in the world that has done so. The penalty for this abuse of copyright should be large. They have underestimated and denigrated the music industry, they should pay dearly for that.
The fact that Bill is now the leader, will dent their donations, and the court imposed fine will also take some of it.

John Key would have been aware of all of this, so here's a list of good reasons for him to abdicate well before the elections.

Pony-gate, and the obvious inability of National to use his mug on their hoardings in 2017.
National has had three terms, now it's getting hard.
The Labour-Green terms of agreement.
Numerous fibs from Key coming home to roost.
The Press figuring out what the implications of "Dirty Politics" were.
The Eminem Court case.
He's bored, the flag thing didn't work.
He doesn't need the money, thanks.
Protecting future earning pipelines with goodwill.
Worried about tax questions, tax havens (yes, I bet he's using one).
He's wanting some more free time with his family (note the position well down the list).

EZ, you need some new material and to move on from JK's departure, it's no good for the heath to dwell on the inconsequential. It's become boring, like some who repetitively, even incessantly post the same droll stuff on the investment threads, like a one-man unpaid PR campaign.

[elZorro]

EZ, you need some new material and to move on from JK's departure, it's no good for the heath to dwell on the inconsequential. It's become boring, like some who repetitively, even incessantly post the same droll stuff on the investment threads, like a one-man unpaid PR campaign.

And I thought it was one of my more useful posts? Perhaps the truth rings out too loud for you.

[Baa_Baa]

And I thought it was one of my more useful posts? Perhaps the truth rings out too loud for you.

Not really, it's your version of the truth repeated over and over and over again.

Para 1 had some interesting insights and I would have to agree, a surprisingly non-political post from you.

Para 2 also interesting but a long bow to draw to conclude the missing millions would vote Labour, ergo your implication they wouldn't vote National (or any other party).

Para 3 we get it, National stuffed up and they'll pay for it. That won't change the election outcome one bit. Will be interesting to see it play out in the courts, but in the scheme of things, it's inconsequential stuff. No one will remember let alone make a voting decision based on this gaff.

Para 4 I just switched off, it's tedious and irrelevant while also disconnected from anything you previously said, albeit you tried to make a connection between JK knowing about the Eminem sound track and then leap to his resignation (you call it abdicating) for a bunch of other lame reasons. Even National voters have got over JK leaving and are backing Bill and the National caucus to deliver a 4th term.

What I would find more interesting is if you informed us about the Labour policies that are going to underpin their election campaign and why they are winning policies that will attract the voters, in spite of a lame duck leader. Labour lost big time on the lack of policy and lack of credibility of their leader, and they are heading down the same path again.

I speak for myself though, others here might not give a toss about what Labour has up their sleeve.

[blackcap]

Not really, it's your version of the truth repeated over and over and over again.

Para 1 had some interesting insights and I would have to agree, a surprisingly non-political post from you.

Para 2 also interesting but a long bow to draw to conclude the missing millions would vote Labour, ergo your implication they wouldn't vote National (or any other party).

Para 3 we get it, National stuffed up and they'll pay for it. That won't change the election outcome one bit. Will be interesting to see it play out in the courts, but in the scheme of things, it's inconsequential stuff. No one will remember let alone make a voting decision based on this gaff.

Para 4 I just switched off, it's tedious and irrelevant while also disconnected from anything you previously said, albeit you tried to make a connection between JK knowing about the Eminem sound track and then leap to his resignation (you call it abdicating) for a bunch of other lame reasons. Even National voters have got over JK leaving and are backing Bill and the National caucus to deliver a 4th term.

What I would find more interesting is if you informed us about the Labour policies that are going to underpin their election campaign and why they are winning policies that will attract the voters, in spite of a lame duck leader. Labour lost big time on the lack of policy and lack of credibility of their leader, and they are heading down the same path again.

I speak for myself though, others here might not give a toss about what Labour has up their sleeve.

your post sums up how I read ElZOrro's posts but I sometimes even get lost at the mention of Key and my eyes just glaze over the rest. I see Labour lost more votes today with their Maori prison policy, although I think AA did say that it was not Labour policy but rather a Kelvin thought.
The thing is ElZorro, issues that are relevant to you and you think they will resonate, may not resonate at all with the majority of the populace. Confirmation bias and all.

[Bjauck]

I don't know about the one-several/few comparisons, as there are equal numbers renting, at least. And for many of us, an increasing value of the home we live in, isn't of great use unless we are borrowing against it and using it for leverage. Most home owners will now be required to step up and help any children into their first home, and this isn't a few thousand dollars anymore....

The trouble is many have put most of their money into their house, so it is their de facto pension scheme. So if they help the next generation, they are raiding their de facto pension nest egg. Kiwisaver got off the ground comparatively late and has few incentives for people to build up a large Kiwisaver pension pot. Plus it can be raided in several circumstances prior to retirement anyway!

In addition, what about the children of those who do not own their homes or land with no family wealth to inherit to help with a deposit - will they be part of the growing inter-generational poor increasingly locked out of becoming owner-occupiers?