If National wins ...

[BlackPeter]

....

I'm confident any sane, reasoned person will find a lot to like with Labour's policies.

These are policies that will grow the economy in a more sustainable way, and will lift every person.

Give us a break, will you? I guess we all realise that you are only here to push the Labour agenda, but this is a bit thick, even for you.

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/05/la..._innocent.html

Major Labour player's (Poto Williams and Andrew Little), proposed only months ago "guilty until proven innocent". No sane reasonable person would like or support this crazy and absolutely unjust policy.

I guess I can see how this policy is going to lift more innocent people into prison, but is this really how Labour is going to grow the economy? Create a better and fairer system?

[blackcap]

Right very interesting. My bet at 1.83 on National to win the election just got taken. Yes that now makes National only a 55% chance to win the election. That is not to get the most seats in the house, no but to have the PM. (ie a National led govt). I may put some more money up a bit higher and see if there are takers.....

[fungus pudding]

Right very interesting. My bet at 1.83 on National to win the election just got taken. Yes that now makes National only a 55% chance to win the election. That is not to get the most seats in the house, no but to have the PM. (ie a National led govt). I may put some more money up a bit higher and see if there are takers.....

Don't forget eZ's words of wisdom - that these betting sites are fixed and somehow controlled by National. Used to get his knickers in a real knot. So ignore any odds.

[elZorro]

Don't forget eZ's words of wisdom - that these betting sites are fixed and somehow controlled by National. Used to get his knickers in a real knot. So ignore any odds.

That was just iPredict, and I could definitely sometimes see the effect of Matthew Hooten manipulating the odds just before he produced the weekly or daily report.

What is Labour paying? Maybe I should have a bet

[blackcap]

Don't forget eZ's words of wisdom - that these betting sites are fixed and somehow controlled by National. Used to get his knickers in a real knot. So ignore any odds.

Ah yes the good old conspiracy theory that he thought National supporters were manipulating markets.

Labour are only paying $2.20 at the moment ElZorro ( that is to be the party that provides the PM). However maybe dichotomously they are paying $6.20 to have the most seats. Maybe this bet offers you more value? National are the hot hot favourite at 1.15 to get the most seats but only $1.83 to be the party that provides the PM.

I think there are opportunities there. Betfair.com

[fungus pudding]

That was just iPredict, and I could definitely sometimes see the effect of Matthew Hooten manipulating the odds just before he produced the weekly or daily report.

I've heard he's doing the same with this one.

[zacman]

Nothing like an election to bring an old poster out of hibernation ...

Some general observations ...

1 All elections are about leaders' personalities. Look at last years US elections. Trump has a personality that appealed to sufficient voters whereas Hillary is fairly insipid

2 It is not a question of Labour not having any policy but rather failing to effectively articulate those policies. In any event see point 1

3 Labour's Rapid rail for Auckland to Tauranga is long overdue. Since Pebble and Michael Fay our rail has been heavily underutilised especially for passengers. Overseas experience shows what can be achieved. However Minimoke makes a good point re cost

4 Both main parties have let down future generations by failing to address the need for capital gains tax and to address superannuation costs

5 The Greens standing a candidate in Oharia will be to Labours advantage. The party vote is more important than the electorate vote. Whether or not labour win in Oharia is secondary to their total vote. However if Green supporters can be encouraged to vote for a candidate then they are likely to also vote for their party rather than stay at home. This will help them to get to 5% which is vital to Labour's chances

6 I predict a Labour/Greens/Maori coalition government

zacman

[BlackPeter]

Nothing like an election to bring an old poster out of hibernation ...

Welcome back!

6 I predict a Labour/Greens/Maori coalition government

zacman

Just out of curiosity ... didn't you forget Winston First?

I see as well the risk for a Labour / NZF / Green / Maori Party conglomerate come election day (in case Winston wants to go with Green and Jacinda wants to go with Winston), but I just can't see how Labour could form a government without Winston - or do you expect Labour to rise another 10% in the polls?

[zacman]

Yes I believe Jacinda will get there without NZFirst. She won't want Peters but she also won't want Prosser the tosser

[elZorro]

Yes I believe Jacinda will get there without NZFirst. She won't want Peters but she also won't want Prosser the tosser

You make some good points, Zacman. It would be great to think that elections are won on policy alone, but that's not the case. If it was, Labour would have been back in power a long time ago.

I'm sure the Greens are stable on at least 8% of the vote, they've been working on it for decades, and the issues they talk about aren't going away, they're ready to bite us in the backside.

Costs to get a light rail service running have to be defrayed by the reduced loading on very expensive roads, and the benefits for people who need more flexible transport than rail. Greens transport plan for Wellington.

A coalition composed mainly of the Labour and Green parties will make the tough decisions that this country needs, for a more stable future.

Comment on the PREFU from London.